“…New Brunswick has nearly 50 per cent more elderly people in its population compared to Alberta and there will be no accounting for this fact in federal health transfers.”
Someone sent me an email questioning my math so here is the raw data. In the column I say Alberta has 15.3 persons over the age of 60 per 100 in the population when the actual number is 15.7 (a slight difference) but the 50% figure remains the same.
As I have said before, we don’t have good data (public) on the cost of health care per person over the age of 60 but we do know the majority of spending occurs later in life. Ergo, NB is at a distinct disadvantage in this area.
Ah, do you remember the good old days when Ralph Klein was threatening to opt out of federal health care dollars altogether? Good times.
Population 60+ – NB Versus Alberta
|
New Brunswick |
Alberta |
|
| All ages |
751,800 |
3,845,000 |
| 60 to 64 years |
53,200 |
187,700 |
| 65 to 69 years |
39,100 |
130,700 |
| 70 to 74 years |
28,800 |
95,200 |
| 75 to 79 years |
22,000 |
76,600 |
| 80 to 84 years |
16,300 |
58,100 |
| 85 to 89 years |
10,900 |
35,200 |
| 90 to 94 years |
4,900 |
15,400 |
| 95 to 99 years |
1,200 |
4,100 |
| 100 years and over |
200 |
500 |
| Population 60+ |
176,600 |
603,500 |
| Per 100 total population |
23.5 |
15.7 |
| NB higher than AB |
50% |
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 052-0005 – Projected population, by projection scenario, sex and age group.
To show what the real worry is, you should take this out ten or fifteen years to when the largest hump of the baby boom hits the 60+ category.
Since I was bored and I already had the tables. here is the medium growth scenario for NB. Year, over 60, total pop, and the ratio.
2010 171.5 752.6 0.227876694
2011 176.9 756.1 0.233963761
2012 182.6 759.2 0.240516333
2013 188.6 762.6 0.247311828
2014 194.9 766 0.254438642
2015 201.1 768.9 0.261542463
2016 207.3 772 0.268523316
2017 213.6 775 0.275612903
2018 220.3 778.6 0.282943745
2019 226 781.6 0.289150461
2020 232.1 784.3 0.295932679
2021 238.4 787.4 0.302768606
2022 244.4 790.7 0.309093209
2023 250.7 793.8 0.315822625
2024 256.3 796.4 0.321823204
2025 261.8 799.1 0.327618571
2026 266.3 801.9 0.332086295
2027 269.9 804.5 0.335487881
2028 273.1 806.7 0.33853973
2029 276 809.3 0.341035463
2030 278.8 811.3 0.343646
2031 281.6 813.4 0.346201131
2032 284.2 815.2 0.348626104
2033 286.1 817 0.350183599
2034 287.7 818.7 0.351410773
2035 289.4 821 0.352496955
2036 290.7 822.3 0.353520613
here is the same for Alberta
2010 575.8 3739.1 0.153994277
2011 599.6 3789.9 0.158209979
2012 624.8 3840.7 0.162678678
2013 652.6 3892.8 0.167642828
2014 682.2 3944.3 0.172958446
2015 713.6 3995.5 0.178600926
2016 746 4046.1 0.184375077
2017 778.8 4096.3 0.190122794
2018 812.2 4146.1 0.195894937
2019 845.5 4194.3 0.201583101
2020 879.7 4242.6 0.207349267
2021 913.7 4290.5 0.212958863
2022 947.5 4338.5 0.218393454
2023 981.7 4385.5 0.223851328
2024 1014.2 4431.7 0.228851231
2025 1044.7 4478.4 0.233275277
2026 1070.9 4523.8 0.236725762
2027 1095.6 4569.3 0.239774145
2028 1119.8 4614 0.242696142
2029 1144.1 4658.9 0.245572989
2030 1168.6 4703.1 0.24847441
2031 1193.6 4746.8 0.251453611
2032 1216.5 4790.5 0.25394009
2033 1238.8 4833.7 0.256284006
2034 1260.3 4877.4 0.258395867
2035 1282.5 4921.1 0.260612465
2036 1304.5 4963.6 0.262813281
there is another easy conclusion: New Brunswickers are twice as likely to get to be 100 than Albertans (divide the number of 100 yr olds over the total population)………..