Someone sent me that analysis on the NB Power deal written by an energy expert in Maine and commissioned by AIMS. The report is called “An Analysis of theNew Brunswick-Hydro Quebec MOU“**.
The report for me falls flat. It restates the basic facts and confirms the $1.25 billion in rate savings during the initial phase and then rightly confirms that the savings beyond the five years are more speculative.
I think we need more experts to weigh in on this deal up or down. There have been a few like Energy Probe that are very positive on the deal and of course the NERA report itself. But this report is just a restatement of facts that we have discussed here ad nauseum. I hope AIMS didn’t pay too much for that piece.
I started a little experiement yesterday that I think is interesting. I started asking folks what was their initial reaction to hearing about this deal – before even seeing the details – and then correlated the responses to their current position. Of the nine people I talked with seven are against the deal (some adamantly) and two are for it. Of the seven – all said their initial hunch was negative and the two for the deal – they both thought it would be a good thing. Doesn’t tell us much – except that we all operate on intiution probably more than we would care to admit.
I have also heard – several times now – that Emera took a long hard look at buying NB Power a few years ago under the Lord government but determined it wasn’t worth the debt on the books. I can’t get independent verification of this (it has come up several times but not from somebody who should know) but it would be interesting to know if it is true and get a copy of their assessment. I suspect that Emera is in lockdown mode on this now because they do not want the sale to go through.
I still maintain – my own little drama this last weekend notwithstanding – the discourse is starting to level out on this and people are starting to think things through.
**Thanks for sending the direct link to this report