It's The Economy, Stupid

I don’t consider myself much of a political analyst but it never seemed to me that Premier Lord was much of a political tactician. In fact, it seemed to me that the day to day politics of being Premier pretty much seemed to annoy him.

Consider the Orimulsion scandal. An $800 million dollar boondoggle and he shrugged his shoulders and said it was an innocent mistake (rough translation). I would have thought that he should have expressed ‘outrage’ as do ‘all New Brunswickers’ and ‘heads will roll’ or ‘we will get to the bottom of this’.

Or how about auto insurance. The response there was so tepid that he nearly lost after a first term – which would have been the first time this had happened since Confederation.

Or consider hospital closures in the North. Sheesh. That was anything but tactical.

And the list goes on. How about his suspected, alleged, rumoured, hinted run for the Federal Tories? That should have skyrocketed his image in New Brunswick as a potential national leader but instead he was positioned as detached from the needs of New Brunswickers.

But in the past year or so, something has changed. Maybe it was his inner circle shakeup after the election. I dunno but something ain’t right in suburbia.

Premier Lord has orchestrated a number of political masterstrokes in the past 12 months that I believe would propel him to a massive majority if an election was held right now (or in 3 months – consider my comment below about Nackawic).

Consider the Lepreau nuclear power station. If the Premier had just announced its refurbishment last year with no fanfare (same deal on the table as now) he would have got a little bounce but not much. But after 12-18 months of prophesying of the coming Armageddon (remember the 6% hike in rates if we refurbish Lepreau – just 4 months ago?), the folks in Saint John were so jittery that when he announced the refurbishment (which was going to happen all along) every resident of Saint John rose to their feet in praise. In Saint John right now, Premier Lord would sweep every seat. No one cares that Saint John’s economy has been tanking for 15 years – the last 18 months have been good (Irving LNG, Lepreau) and NB voters have short memories.

Or consider the ‘medical school’ for Moncton. This will cost the province almost nothing compared to the overall cost of the health care budget and in fact will most likely lead to cost savings but the positioning on it has been outstanding. You would think that a $100 million medical school was being built at U de M instead of a few new classrooms. And he has hinted a similar set up is coming for Saint John or Fredericton.

Call the election now, keep them on the edge of their seats!

Also consider the pulp mill in Nackawic. Never mind that the Province wouldn’t give financial incentives to Bowater and that is why the plant closed to begin with. If the Premier can convince the Indians to take over the plant (less staff, lower wages), he will look like a hero to all of the Saint John River Valley. Every one will gloss over the fact that the ultimate financial package for the Indian company will end up being around the same as the one they wouldn’t give to Bowater.

The list goes on. He passed on hundreds of millions in Federal childcare dollars because he wanted to ‘stand up’ for the stay at home moms in New Brunswick. That’s a political winner. Never mind that almost all the other provinces signed such a deal and have millions in new funding in their coffers.

Now they are talking up immigration which should shore up voters in Moncton and to a lesser extent in Fredericton.

So, the only area that is not basking in the Lordship’s glow right now is the North – and they have mostly written that area off anyway.

So, to recap. Five years of indecision, inaction, the worst job creation record in Atlantic Canada, the lowest level of foreign business investment, the second lowest rate of immigration, population decline for the first time since the Great Depression, the alienation of the Federal government, Orimulsion, etc. etc. etc. and 12 months of savvy moves and he is now in the driver’s seat again.

What I want to know is who’s the political operative behind the master? Who is making all these home run decisions?

All the Premier needs now is an ‘Al Hogan’ at the TJ, Gleaner and Acadie Nouvelle. He could stay in power as long as Hatfield.

The Lord help us all.

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Was there ever any doubt that Premier Lord wouldn’t refurbish the Lepreau nuclear plant? Remember, last year he said it was uneconomical to refurbish and earlier this year he said that refurbishment would push up power rates by 6% for all New Brunswickers.

Now, at today’s announcement he said:

“It makes good economic and environmental sense.”

How did we get from an uneconomic decision that will significantly increase power rates to one that makes good economic sense?

Politics. The Premier is on a role right now. This will shore up his support in Saint John for the next election. The cost of the refurbishment will be accrued most likely under the next Premier and the power rate increases for New Brunswickers? Well, they are coming fast and furious and the Premier is banking that we will forget Orimulsion and Lepreau come election time.

Which we probably will.

Tee hee hee.

Ain’t politics grand? Decisions can go from awful to wonderful based on a few swing seats.

I say we need to privatize NB Power, write off the debt somehow and start over with a sensible, long term, depoliticized energy strategy for the province.

But we won’t will we?

Those predictions of an early election in New Brunswick might turn out to be true afterall.

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I’ve always had a secret interest in editing a newspaper. So, just for fun, I have ‘edited’ Al Hogan’s meaningless and unfounded diatribe against city hall. Just for your amusement.

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Nobody’s heard so why bother?

We say: Citizens of Moncton [AL HOGAN] have [has] lost faith and trust in their [his] civic government NOTE TO Writer: Al, you never liked Brian M – now you do?

The City of Moncton says it wants public input into what it calls its “Corporate Strategic Plan”, which in plain language is its general “vision” statement for the coming five years, including goals, priorities and challenges. It is also updating its present “Municipal Plan” which is a more detailed nuts and bolts document involving policy, with an emphasis on land use (zoning).

But why would citizens [AL HOGAN] bother? Public input and consultation [AL HOGAN's useless We Says] is fine and good if it is meaningful and people have even a modicum of faith that their views will be heard and fairly considered. It is a waste of time if there is no faith they will be heard. Today, there is no faith, nor is there any reason for such faith and trust.

The mayor, council and administration have failed to consult [AL HOGAN] the public on significant matters such as the annual budget and Mapleton Park, they have excluded [AL HOGAN] the public, conducting business behind closed doors, rubber stamping items in open council without clarity or discussion, have failed to demonstrate understanding of why the [AL HOGAN] public is upset when the facts do emerge, nor shown any inclination to try to correct blunders [AS SINGLY DETERMINED BY AL HOGAN]. They have hidden behind public relations “strategies” that are not working and have sent unelected city officials to explain and defend council decisions.

Why would any citizen [AL HOGAN] take the time to provide input [AL HOGAN hammers them at every opportunity] when their elected officials are so clearly not listening [to AL HOGAN only]? In fact, the councillors themselves have at times been oblivious to the details of what they were approving, by their own admission [ior AL HOGAN's interpretation].

These are people whose job it is to know and represent the public. They’ve failed miserably [says AL HOGAN and nobody else].

Former Mayor Brian Murphy went a very long way to ensuring the public was always kept abreast of the city’s thinking, its plans, and that business was done transparently and in the open. Not only did he consult [AL HOGAN], he actually listened [to AL HOGAN] and adjusted plans accordingly [based on AL HOGAN's We Says], which is why the CN Sportplex is so named rather than being called the Moncton Commons, his own preference. And that is but one example. Contrast that to the situation today. Faith and trust must be earned [so says AL HOGAN]. The city hasn’t come close [so says AL HOGAN].If council expects easy assurances that it will do better in future to work, then it is deluding itself [avoid big words AL].

Until it proves via action it has heard the public [AL HOGAN] and is willing to respond appropriately [to AL HOGAN's We Says], any appeal for public [AL HOGAN's] input is empty and meaningless. Nobody [AL HOGAN]‘s listening! Why should the public [AL HOGAN]?

Editor’s Note: I know a lot of folks at City Hall and they are men and women of integrity. Al Hogan’s attempts to drag them through the mud are deplorable. There is constructive criticism but Al goes well beyond this. He is trying to turn the public on their city and its elected officials like a spoiled child that can get its mommy to listen to it. He figures if he turns up the rhetoric to maximum, somebody at City Hall will bow down and do what he says. Stand firm, City Hall. Don’t allow a bitter, hollow, unthinking, trivial editor to sway your thinking.

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I am reading through Norman Levine’s Canada Made Me – a book written in the 50s that paints a fairly bleak view of Canada. Levine meanders across Canada from Halifax to Vancouver and back and then writes up some gritty and sometimes downright negative views of our country.

I find this quite refreshing after being inundated on a daily basis with all the talk about how great our country is: best healthcare system in the world, best quality of life, highest standard of living, most tolerant society, etc. etc. etc.

Problem is there is no international data to back any of these claims up. Further, I once heard that if you are the one saying how great you are (and no one else), that usually means you have a major self-confidence problem.

But I digress.

My point is that Levine makes some interesting economic development related points. As the book is set in the 1950s, that makes it quite intriguing.

Couple of points:

1) On immigration. He quotes an old Ukranian immigrant living in Edmonton who states that when they arrived in Canada in the early part of the century – they all wanted to settle in Ontario but immigration officials kept the train locked until Alberta – no one was allowed out. Point? If people want to move to your country, governments should be able to set policy about where then settle. Read: Atlantic Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and just about anywhere outside the 6 or 7 biggest cities in Canada.

2) On economic development. He quotes from a tourism brochure for the City of Edmonton circa 1950. The brochure states something like city leaders want to make Edmonton the capital of the new west by attracting business and growing the economy. Imagine. An economic development pitch in a tourism brochure. In New Brunswick, you’ll get a picture of the Premier pushing lighthouses.

Ahh, focus.

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I will remind frequent readers of this blog that I am a big supporter of Moncton. I think it’s a great city to live and work and as I have lived in seven other cities in my life – I think I can speak with a little authority on the subject.

However, I have just been exposed to the dark underbelly of the City of Moncton and I would like to vent a bit. This is my perogative as a resident.

I just moved downtown into a glorious old house. Big, beautiful and somewhat costly – although half what it would be in downtown Halifax. So, I pull up into my garage on the first day and the arse end of my Sienna van is slightly over the sidewalk. I go into the house and five minutes later come out to find a $30 ticket for parking on the sidewalk.

Now, this is not why I want to vent. Although, I was expecting the Welcome Wagon and instead I got a kick in the arse – thanks a bunch.

No, my complaint is with By-Law #T-102.

You see, I had a good idea. While paying for this egregious violation, I would ask the city to provide me with a list of key by-laws that I could read and make sure that I wouldn’t face the wrath of the eager Commissionairre again. So I am told curtly to go to the City web site and download By-Law #T-102.

It’s 97 pages.

Welcome to Moncton.

Here’s a tip for the long winded, bloviating City Hall employees that salivate when they get to write up these things.

How about a summary? You know. When you come by the house to welcome me to Moncton with the flowers and brochures – how about a little 2 pager that has 20-30 of the key by-laws summarized?

Does the city realize expect all new residents (and old ones for that matter) to plow through 97 pages? I might read this beast just out of curiosity.

If the city wants to attract people and grow its population – particularly its downtown – it should make a little more effort to be nice. Let’s try and not turn off every new resident with vulturous Commissionaires, unweildy by-laws and curt city employees.

Just be nice.

Send around the welcome wagon? Hey, some cities do this, you know?

Just nice.

Sort of like my attitude towards Al Hogan

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In psychological terms, denial is a very powerful way to cope (or not) with a significant problem or crisis.

When my wife moved here over a decade ago, besides the weather, there was one other thing about New Brunswick that raised her curiosity. She couldn’t understand why all around New Brunswick things had to be the ‘biggest’ or ‘best’ or ‘longest’. After reflection, I understood her point:
-World’s highest tides
-World’s largest axe
-World’s largest lobster
-World’s longest covered bridge
-World’s largest blueberry (I think this is gone now)
-World’s largest potato (outside Fredericton – is it still there?)

It seemed to her that New Brunswick was compensating for the fact that it was a small, cold, poor, marginalized place but pretending to be something it wasn’t. She said New Brunswick shouldn’t throw around all these meaningless titles and should focus on what its core attributes are.

So when I saw the new UNB brochure for the Forging Our Futures fund raising campaign, I just had to sigh. There it was in bold print on the front page – “We are aiming to be the top public university in Canada by the end of this decade…”

Now consider a few facts. On a per capita basis, New Brunswick universities receives the least amount of R&D funding in Canada. The percentage of the New Brunswick population that is university age is declining steeply and provincial government funding for post-secondary education will be more and more squeezed out by health care in the coming years.

Based on that, shouldn’t UNB’s goal be – to try and survive until the end of the decade?

I don’t know UNB’s plan but it should include:

• *Attraction of significant out of province students
• *Try and find a way to keep the 2,500 English language Moncton high school graduates in province. Moncton graduates more English kids from high school than Fredericton and has no local options (except Mt. A and ABU which are not aligned with 90% of graduates).
• *Less reliance on government core funding (yes, yes we get the point you are trying to make – the word ‘public’ is used more times than any other in the brochure).
• *More R&D – practical, commercializable R&D
• *More attraction of top talent from outside Canada. I have followed Dalhousie University and their attraction of some of the top minds in the research world. That’s what UNB should do for New Brunswick. In addition, this talent should be tied to economic development strategies for the province (if there are any). Dalhousie’s attract of the top mind in Internet security from around the globe to head an institute is pure genius. What R&D going on at UNB has global implications? (I’m just asking – I really don’t know).
• More connectedness. Only one of over 50 people on the campaign’s cabinet from the United States? There must be more UNB grads in senior management positions in the USA than that.

Time for UNB to become a global university. When I pick up global newspapers, I hear about research at Dal. Clinical trials at Dal. New global institutes at Dal. I’m not kidding. I monitor global media references to Atlantic Canadian universities and Dal references outnumber UNB by 20 times. It is very rare to see the name UNB in a U.S. publication – much less a European one.

UNB should be a catalyst to help attract foreign companies and investment to New Brunswick. When CNN is consulting a global expert in xx – it should be a UNB prof.

Why not?

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In his T&T column Is leaving home the only option? written yesterday, Alec Bruce continues another in a long line of articles, commentaries, case studies and blogs about the structural economic troubles facing New Brunswick.

I won’t comment on everything he said except to say that I agree with his diagnosis but not with his cure (or lack thereof).

New Brunswick will never be Ontario. Moncton will never be Toronto. At least not in our lifetime. So people that want to be writers, physicists, rocket scientists, etc. may have to leave New Brunswick to pursue their careers.

I think I rank labour mobility as one of the most, if not the most, important element of a healthy economy. I think the many efforts by government to restrict labour mobility (through sub-par income subsidy programs such as EI) are a drag on an economy. So if you feel the itch to go and settle elsewhere – go and God be with you.

But we also need to make New Brunswick a place where people can move to. Thousands of people moved to Moncton in the past 15 years and not all of them were from Tracadie. Try Toronto, Calgary, Montreal and Vancouver. Middle and senior managers in call centres and regional offices. Other professionals in IT, etc. And, by the way 2/3 were Anglophones.

Policy makers should start getting the message and investing seriously in economic developmetn (we spend in NB the lowest in Canada on economic development).

Commentators and bloggers should stop sending mixed messages to government about priorities. Until our economy is strong and we are net contributors to the Canadian economy, we should always answer ‘economic issues’ to any freakin’ surveyor that calls us during supper – as that is the primary way that governments determine policy and programs.

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Memories, Light the corners of my mind; Misty water-colored memories, Of the way we were; Scattered pictures, Of the smiles we left behind; Smiles we gave to one another, For the way we were;Can it be that it was all so simple then? Or has time re-written every line? If we had the chance to do it all again, Tell me, would we? Could we? Mem’ries, may be beautiful and yet, What’s too painful to remember, We simply choose to forget; So it’s the laughter, We will remember, Whenever we remember… The way we were… the way we were…

I just finished reading about South Carolina’s Governor and his efforts to bring new business investment to that state. Here are some highlights:

The governor has proven time and again his willingness to do everything in his power to bring economic development projects to South Carolina.

Gov. Sanford worked extremely hard to win that project. Anytime I needed him to meet with company officials, he agreed. I’ve seen him travel across the Atlantic for a dinner meeting, just to get back on a plane to be in Columbia for work the next day. He traveled to Dallas for a breakfast meeting with Vought and made it back in time for the start of the legislative session that same day. When the companies visited Alabama, the governor personally flew out at 4 a.m. to pick up the site selection team members and bring them back to South Carolina.

Aren’t you thinking what I’m thinking? Doesn’t it sound like Sanford went to the Frank McKenna school of economic development?

Could you imagine our current Premier personally flying out at 4 a.m. to pick up the site selection team members?

Chuckle.

Memories, misty water-colored memories….

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You know the top reponse that people give me when I ask them why major manufacturing companies don’t locate in New Brunswick is we are too far from major markets.

Funny. Oregon is 1,000 miles from LA, 1,400 from Phoenix, over 2,000 from Chicago and that state led the U.S. for manufacturing growth last year with 6,000 net new manufacturing jobs.

Oregon is twice as far from the North American population as is New Brunswick.

Oregon, New Mexico, Wyoming. All growing strongly. All in the boondocks.

New Brunswick in the boondocks and shrinking.

Better find a better excuse.

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I just read that Dieppe’s Mayor Yvon Lapierre has resigned as mayor of Dieppe. This is a tremendous loss for the Greater Moncton region.

Yes, I realize that Mayor Lapierre had a reputation for being a hard ‘butt’ but that feistiness was just what Dieppe needed when he came to power over 7 years ago. You see, Dieppe could have been content with the rapid population growth in the community. It could have said we aren’t interested in economic development – we will rely soley on our residential growth. But that wasn’t enough for the Mayor. He wanted to build a strong local economy in Dieppe. He wanted to be a force attracting – and he had some success – and that is good for Greater Moncton as a whole.

So put aside issues of City planning, water supply and the few other family spats that we have seen in Greater Moncton in recent years. The bottom line is that Mayor Lapierre had a passion for economic development and that was very good for Greater Moncton.

I can only hope the next Mayor continues this passion.

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