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	<title>It&#039;s The Economy, Stupid</title>
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	<link>http://davidwcampbell.com</link>
	<description>David Campbell - A blog about economic development in Atlantic Canada</description>
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		<title>Jason Kenney and the Startup Visa</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5848</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5848#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 10:32:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5848</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jason Kenney has been in Silicon Valley peddling the new Start-up Visa.   He tweeted at least a couple of dozen times about it including this picture in front of a new &#8216;cheeky&#8217; billboard. The issue for New Brunswick and the Maritimes is whether or not we will use this visa program to attract bright immigrant [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jason Kenney has been in Silicon Valley peddling the new Start-up Visa.   He tweeted at least a couple of dozen times about it including <a href="http://twitter.yfrog.com/occ5aofj?sa=0">this picture </a><a href="http://twitter.yfrog.com/occ5aofj?sa=0"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>in front of a new &#8216;cheeky&#8217; billboard.</p>
<p>The issue for New Brunswick and the Maritimes is whether or not we will use this visa program to attract bright immigrant entrepreneurs to this region or whether or not all the benefits of the program will accrue to Toronto-Montreal-Vancouver.  I suspect the Minister wasn&#8217;t pitching Moncton or Truro while in Silicon Valley.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s up to us to put this program to our advantage.  Our VC programs &#8211; groups like the NBIF should immediately indicate they are willing and able to provide the needed funds for immigrant tech entrepreneurs (to get the startup visa you need to have VC interest).   We should look to integrate immigrant entrepreneurs into our incubator/accelerator programs. Our universities should think about how they can play a role here.</p>
<p>In the end, if this region was able to attract 20-30 tech entrepreneurs from abroad via this new startup visa, it will be a big deal indeed.  Or we can sit back and follow the traditional path.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Using government business as a carrot for something bigger?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5845</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5845#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 23:12:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5845</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is an age old issue and one that stirs up debate on all sides.  The government spends a lot of money on suppliers.  Even in a place like New Brunswick, the amount spent on all suppliers from all levels of government would likely run into the hundreds of millions of dollars per year.  Further, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is an age old issue and one that stirs up debate on all sides.  The government spends a lot of money on suppliers.  Even in a place like New Brunswick, the amount spent on all suppliers from all levels of government would likely run into the hundreds of millions of dollars per year.  Further, you could mount a case that a lot of stuff the government does inhouse could just as easily be done out-house (without the outhouse results) as with <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/business/21578020-sweden-leading-world-allowing-private-companies-run-public-institutions-hospital">Sweden and its private sector </a><a href="http://www.economist.com/news/business/21578020-sweden-leading-world-allowing-private-companies-run-public-institutions-hospital"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>providing health care service within the public health care system.</p>
<p>I think it is fair for governments to consider the economic development benefits of a large supplier deal as part of its overall assessment of procurement opportunities.   I don&#8217;t mean that we should sacrifice the quality of the product or service in the name of a few jobs but if there is a way to leverage further economic activity I think it is worthy of the effort.</p>
<p>For example, the Nova Scotia government <a href="http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/166107-dexter-hails-ibm-plan-for-halifax-global-delivery-centre">recently outsourced</a><a href="http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/166107-dexter-hails-ibm-plan-for-halifax-global-delivery-centre"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> its SAP activities to IBM with the explicit goal of IBM making Halifax a global delivery centre for IBM.</p>
<p>I realize this was somewhat controversial as it meant moving some jobs from the public service to a private contractor (media reports say no one was fired &#8211; everyone was either reassigned or went with IBM) but I like the idea of using this base of business to leverage a larger opportunity.</p>
<p>The Coast got a <a href="http://www.thecoast.ca/RealityBites/archives/2013/05/17/the-coast-obtains-a-heavily-redacted-copy-of-the-provinces-contract-with-ibm">copy of the contract </a><a href="http://www.thecoast.ca/RealityBites/archives/2013/05/17/the-coast-obtains-a-heavily-redacted-copy-of-the-provinces-contract-with-ibm"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>which I downloaded.  It&#8217;s heavily redacted but it seems like a fairly straightforward contract.</p>
<p>However, it&#8217;s an interesting social media moment.  The news editor of the Coast has asked his readers to look the documents over and comment on them.</p>
<p>There is no inherent reason why government needs to manage its IT and related services in-house.  I&#8217;m sure it can be done well in-house or out-house.  If Dexter is right and IBM makes Halifax a global delivery centre for SAP services &#8211; it could turn out to be a great move.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The importance of anchor employers</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5841</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5841#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 10:42:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Believe it or not this is actually one of my more controversial views.  I think it is important for communities large and small to have a few large, anchor employers &#8211; respecting the fact that &#8216;large&#8217; is a moving target. I read this morning in the TJ that a company is looking to set up [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Believe it or not this is actually one of my more controversial views.  I think it is important for communities large and small to have a few large, anchor employers &#8211; respecting the fact that &#8216;large&#8217; is a moving target.</p>
<p>I read this morning in the TJ that a company is looking to set up in Bathurst and hire something like 1,300 people.  I have no idea if that is a good project but as a general rule if it is a good firm paying good wages that would be really good for the Bathurst area as it has lost a number of its large, anchor employers in recent years.</p>
<p>When the Miramichi lost UPM, a number of folks told me they would replace it with small businesses.  I didn&#8217;t see that working then and I don&#8217;t see it now.  As we have discussed 95%+ of small businesses generate all their business (or substantially all) in the local market.  If a large anchor leaves and pulls $50 million in payroll and supply chain spending out of a community how do you replace that with small businesses?  As one KPMG guy told me yesterday when commenting on why they were in a local community &#8220;we come to feed&#8221;.  They go where there is a local market for their services.  That&#8217;s a good metaphor for small business.  The come to feed.  If there is no local market for them or a diminishing one many will close and that is exactly what has happened in New Brunswick.</p>
<p>Now it is true that a small cohort of small businesses do export and do have growth potential and we have numerous programs to help them do so.  But to replace a UPM you would need dozens of small business exporters to boost their exports big time.  It&#8217;s a tough proposition.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying anchors are a panacea and I&#8217;m not saying we should &#8216;buy them&#8217; to move into local communities.  There still has to be a firm business case under any project &#8211; large or small.</p>
<p>But we have to understand the framework for successful and vibrant communities in the long term and I believe anchor employers are a key part of that.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>More on Saint John&#8217;s leaky immigration hypothesis</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5837</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5837#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 May 2013 09:36:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5837</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ll pre-empt some emails and calls by further explaining my data for the column in the TJ today.  In it, I raise the issue of the discrepancy between the estimated annual new immigrant numbers to the Saint John CMA compared to the number of persons in the 2011 Census that said they were born outside [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll pre-empt some emails and calls by further explaining my data for the column in the TJ today.  In it, I raise the issue of the discrepancy between the estimated annual new immigrant numbers to the Saint John CMA compared to the number of persons in the 2011 Census that said they were born outside of Canada.</p>
<p>These data come from two different sources.  The former is based on tax filer data and the latter from the Census.  However, when there is a big spread in the numbers it likely means a lot of immigrants flowed out via intraprovincial or interprovincial migration.</p>
<p>The table below shows the average annual immigrant estimates from the components of population growth table published by Statistics Canada for the years 2006-2007 to 2010-2011 and the number of persons living in the CMA in 2011 that moved to Canada between 2006-2011.  For the Freddy Beachers you are not here because we haven&#8217;t been able to get your urban area designated as a CMA.</p>
<p>*PS &#8211; &#8220;based on the 2006 Census&#8221; means that Statistics Canada uses 2006 as the base  year from which to estimate subsequent annual population changes.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Comparison of estimated annual immigration to actual immigration to CMA areas</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="http://www.jupia.ca/immy.jpg" src="http://www.jupia.ca/immy.jpg" alt="" width="472" height="732" /></p>
<p>Sources: Statistics Canada 2011 Census and Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 051-0047 Components of population growth by census metropolitan area.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The EI dance in the dark</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5832</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5832#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 May 2013 12:26:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Victor Boudreau is one of my favorite politicians but his comments in the paper reflect the challenge we face when trying to have a substantive debate on EI.   He says: “No amount of training will change the fact we have seasonal industries,” Boudreau said. “No matter how well-trained our workforce could be, you can’t fish [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Victor Boudreau is one of my favorite politicians but his comments in the paper reflect the challenge we face when trying to have a substantive debate on EI.   He says:</p>
<p><em>“No amount of training will change the fact we have seasonal industries,” Boudreau said. “No matter how well-trained our workforce could be, you can’t fish lobster, grow potatoes or draw tourists to our beaches in January. So there’s always going to be a need for a federal EI program that will assist our seasonal industries.”</em></p>
<p>That might actually be true but even it if is how many of the 100,000 NBers who collect EI each year are employed in these industries?  They haven&#8217;t told us.</p>
<p>We do know from Statistics Canada, in an average month there are 4,100 persons working in agriculture across the province and we know there are only 11,900 working in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas combined.   There are another 30,000 working in manufacturing but how many of those are seasonal?</p>
<p>In addition how many of these seasonal industries are important enough to offer large subsidies to keep them running?  They haven&#8217;t told us.  How many of these industries could be served by other segments of the labour market &#8211; yes &#8211; including the dreaded temporary foreign worker program?  They haven&#8217;t told us.</p>
<p>So we dance on while very few folks have any real data on which to draw their conclusions.</p>
<p>Take the guy this morning who wrote how shocked he was that businesses were allowed to use the temporary foreign worker program in areas with high EI usage (this guy was very left of centre &#8211; it wasn&#8217;t a right wing diatribe).  If he actually talked to one or two businesses he would realize that the high EI usage is precisely why they are using the TFW program.  Many of them can&#8217;t get workers to work year round.</p>
<p>Dancing in the light is hard enough (trust me my wife and I have been taking dance lessons for two years).  In the dark it&#8217;s almost impossible.</p>
<p>The most compelling argument, of course, is that we shouldn&#8217;t abandon these folks.   We get back to that <em>de facto</em> policy of slowly emptying out rural and small communities and ensuring there are government funding programs to ease the pain of decline.  One bureaucrat told me this a couple of years ago.  Let the young people leave and have these programs that will fade away over time as people age.</p>
<p>The trouble with that vision is the bulk of EI users (55%) in New Brunswick are under the age of 44.  Again, we don&#8217;t know the age demographic of the annual users of EI because they haven&#8217;t made that data public.</p>
<p>I reiterate my view that we should go back to the drawing board on this.  Start with the stated goal of dramatically reducing EI usage &#8211; that&#8217;s fine.  Maybe we have as a goal moving seasonal industry support right out of the EI program completely.  Whatever.  We start with a goal.  We have as a guiding principle not to make things worse and then we get down to business &#8211; with very good data to support the discussions.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The Jerkstore called.  Do we need a few more?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5824</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5824#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2013 00:57:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I read a lot of biographies.  In the last six months I have read biographies of CS Lewis, Calvin Coolidge, Catherine the Great, Genghis Khan, Thomas Jefferson, Rasputin, Glenn Gould, Lyndon Johnson, ExxonMobil, Winston Churchill and a book that was essentially a biography of FA Hayek and Milton Friedman.  You will note that all of these [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I read a lot of biographies.  In the last six months I have read biographies of CS Lewis, Calvin Coolidge, Catherine the Great, Genghis Khan, Thomas Jefferson, Rasputin, Glenn Gould, Lyndon Johnson, ExxonMobil, Winston Churchill and a book that was essentially a biography of FA Hayek and Milton Friedman.  You will note that all of these folks plied their trade at least a generation ago.</p>
<p>As you can tell, I prefer to read about folks whose legacy has marinated a bit.  I have read real time bios in the past but I find they can be coloured with the direct biases of the writer (for or against) whereas when the writer doesn&#8217;t rely on his or her direct experience it tends to be a better product.  But I heard Malcolm Gladwell urging folks to read the Steve Jobs biography and he is right.  It is a tour de force.  Well worth the read.</p>
<p>It, among other things, prompted this column that ran in the TJ yesterday:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Do we need more jerks?</strong></p>
<p>I recently finished reading the biography of Apple founder Steve Jobs.</p>
<p>There is no way to sugar coat it. Steve Jobs was a jerk.</p>
<p>He was tyrant as a boss and belligerent with his colleagues and partners. He would berate the stupidity of ideas put forward by staff and subsequently take credit for them as his own. He didn’t even like customers much and detested market research and focus groups. This nastiness extended into his private life. He would purposely park his car in spaces reserved for handicapped people. He abandoned his first child, backstabbed long -time friends and despite his enormous wealth had virtually no interest in philanthropy.</p>
<p>Steve Jobs will go down in history as one of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs as a result of his successes with Apple and Pixar. More importantly for me, these companies generate tens of billions of dollars in tax revenues every year for governments around the world.</p>
<p>While Steve Jobs was an outlier there is ample research on the personality traits of very successful entrepreneurs and it turns out most are not particularly nice people. They are narcissistic, single-minded, passionate and highly driven and they expect everyone around them to be the same. They will run roughshod over employees, partners and anyone else that gets in their way. They can’t stand incompetence.</p>
<p>Contrast that with the personality traits of the typical New Brunswicker. We are nice to a fault. When you ask someone in Toronto or Calgary to describe a New Brunswicker they will use terms like ‘friendly’ and ‘laid back’. Is there a fundamental incompatibility between highly ambitious entrepreneurship and the very cultural attributes that we work to nurture in this province? Could this be a main reason why we turn out so few highly successful entrepreneurs? Of course the reality is not so simple. While virtually all successful entrepreneurs and leaders are driven and push those around them to strive for excellence &#8211; not all of them are jerks. Conversely, there are lots of disagreeable people around that do not build great companies or transform lethargic organizations.</p>
<p>But this is still an important question worth asking. Do we need more hard-nosed, risk averse, narcissistic entrepreneurs prepared to step on a few toes to move their companies ahead?</p>
<p>I extend this argument even further. Do we need this kind of leader across New Brunswick society in government, education and public institutions? Do we need tough guys and gals that push back against incompetence and relentlessly drive their organizations to be world beaters?</p>
<p>I suspect many New Brunswickers would say no. They would say our laid back and friendly demeanour is the best part of our culture. The last thing we need is a bunch of hard drivers making the world uncomfortable for everyone else. But a little discomfort may be just what we need right now. In his excellent new book, Antifragile, Nassim Taleb describes how organizations atrophy and eventually waste way if they are not in a constant state of stress or discomfort. It’s the stress on our bodies when we exercise that makes us stronger. The same holds for companies, government departments, educational institutions and, I would argue, for New Brunswick as a whole.</p>
<p>For most folks, it’s pretty comfortable these days in New Brunswick. Maybe the EI reforms will inject a little needed stress. Maybe the tightening of public spending will help people start to better understand the link between a vibrant economy and their personal quality of life.</p>
<p>But more than the ‘what’, even more importantly, ‘who’ is going to shake us out of our comfort zone?</p>
<p>Maybe we need a few more jerks starting companies and occupying key leadership positions to shake things up. If we don’t have them already, perhaps we should attract them here.</p>
<p>Calling all jerks with a demonstrated track record in leadership or successful entrepreneurship…. have we got a job for you.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Do we need more jerks?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5821</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5821#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 May 2013 10:56:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I hope you get a chance to read my column today in the TJ.  I will post it hear sometime next week.  It&#8217;s a bit clunky and the argument is thin but the kernel of the idea is one worth exploring.  I was chatting about it with Nadine Duguay, the energetic head of 21 Inc. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I hope you get a chance to read my column today in the TJ.  I will post it hear sometime next week.  It&#8217;s a bit clunky and the argument is thin but the kernel of the idea is one worth exploring.  I was chatting about it with Nadine Duguay, the energetic head of 21 Inc. the other day and that conversation formed the basis of the column.</p>
<p>Do we need more jerks?  There&#8217;s a large body of evidence to suggest that a lot of highly successful people are not particularly nice.</p>
<p>I think we should talk about this.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Demystifying the benefits of out-migration: Smaller may not be better</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5811</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5811#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Apr 2013 12:13:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5811</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I used to make the statement that bigger is not necessarily better and we may have to &#8216;right size&#8217; the population of certain areas of Atlantic Canada to bring it more in line with the size of the economic pie in those areas.  I used the example of Miramichi which had roughly 30,000 population and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I used to make the statement that bigger is not necessarily better and we may have to &#8216;right size&#8217; the population of certain areas of Atlantic Canada to bring it more in line with the size of the economic pie in those areas.  I used the example of Miramichi which had roughly 30,000 population and I said that if it had 22,000 it would have very low unemployment and a healthy &#8211; if smaller &#8211; economy.  This view is widely held across Canada.  Economists and pundits from Halifax to Victoria told us in the 1990s that all Atlantic Canada needed was a large scale out-migration and that would solve our unemployment and economic problems.  I have speculated elsewhere that former Premier Lord&#8217;s inner circle held this view.</p>
<p>However, our theory was flawed (in fairness to me I knew the effect below but I didn&#8217;t clearly articulate it at the time in the essence of simplicity):</p>
<p>Take a economic area with a population of 45,000 people, an adult population of 30,000 and total employment of 15,000.  That leaves you with a very low employment rate of only 50% (although this is actually higher than some New Brunswick communities).</p>
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<col width="74" /></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="217" height="20">Total population</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" width="74">         45,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Adult Population</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">         30,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Employment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">         15,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Employment rate</td>
<td align="right">50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The theory states that if we reduce the adult population by 8,000 and total population by 11,000 through outward migration we will end up with:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table width="291" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<colgroup>
<col width="217" /></colgroup>
<colgroup>
<col width="74" /></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="217" height="20">New total population</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" width="74">         34,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New adult Population</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">         22,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New employment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">         15,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New employment rate</td>
<td align="right">68%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Now we have an employment rate at the national average and a &#8216;right sized&#8217; population and economy.  Wunderbar, right?</p>
<p>Wrong.</p>
<p>It turns out that 80% of more of the employment in a local community is actually based on the economic activity (and population) in that community &#8211; nurses, electricians, hairdressers, waiters, plumbers, taxi drivers, teachers, etc.</p>
<p>Therefore, if we reduce the population by 11,000, we reduce the overall local economy by a significant amount leading to widespread losses in the 80% of the economy that was hurt by the loss of those 11,000.</p>
<p>So we really end up with:</p>
<table width="291" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<colgroup>
<col width="217" /></colgroup>
<colgroup>
<col width="74" /></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="217" height="20">New population</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" width="74">         34,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New adult population</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">         22,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New total employment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">         11,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New employment rate</td>
<td align="right">50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>So we have done nothing to impact the low employment rate (and hence high unemployment rate) but we have unintentionally created other negative impacts.</p>
<p>The other deeply flawed assumption regarding the &#8216;rightsizing&#8217; of communities is the linearity of public services and public infrastructure costs.     If you drop the population by 20%, the theory goes, you will reduce the cost of these services by 20%.  This turns out not to be the case.  In fact, you could argue that public spending goes up &#8211; particularly in the area of income transfers &#8211; where EI, social assistance and even workers&#8217; compensation costs rise.  The insurance firms will quietly tell you the number of homes that burn down also rises as economic prospects fall.</p>
<p>The learning here is that we can&#8217;t shrink communities to economic health.</p>
<p>Or, to be more direct, we need to spend far more time on the 20% of the economy that is export-based.</p>
<p>The reality is that many of these economically challenged regions are in that place because of a steep decline in their export businesses.  The Miramichi is a perfect example.  The community lost its largest mills (and mining) and tried to replace it by encouraging local small businesses (i.e. the 80%).  It didn&#8217;t work.</p>
<p>This brings us full circle to my theory about the need to attract investment and foster more ambitious (i.e. export oriented) entrepreneurship.   Increasingly I include immigration as the third leg of the stool.</p>
<p>The proper &#8216;right sizing&#8217; of a community will be focused on understanding the mix of local services and export-based activity needed to have low unemployment, moderate population growth and the economic foundation that will allow governments to carve off enough tax revenue to pay for good quality public services and infrastructure.  Further, it will involve having the wisdom to have a proper role for government that doesn&#8217;t exacerbate the problems.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Alward wont&#8217; fall on the EI sword (at least willingly)</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5803</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5803#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Apr 2013 10:39:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[One of the interesting things about Canadian politics is the wide variation between the parties and their ideology depending on where you are within the country.  A Progressive Conservative in Alberta has only the most basic ties with a PC in New Brunswick. They may speak the same language but they face stark differences in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the interesting things about Canadian politics is the wide variation between the parties and their ideology depending on where you are within the country.  A Progressive Conservative in Alberta has only the most basic ties with a PC in New Brunswick. They may speak the same language but they face stark differences in the political landscape and in what they have to say and do to get elected and stay elected.</p>
<p>I&#8217;d say the same holds for the NDP.  The western Canadian NDP party with its support of uranium mining and oil and gas development seems quite detached from the NDP party in NB.  However, the Nova Scotia example shows that even down here if the NDP wants to win they have to tack to the centre.</p>
<p>The Libs seems to ebb and flow a bit more wherever they may be across the country.</p>
<p>Former Premier Bernard Lord was one such conflicted PC.  When he gave a rousing speech to the Conservative convention he was heralded as the next big thing.  Then, in 2004-2005 when he came out as a fierce, national defender of Equalization &#8211; saying in the national media that NB had a Constitutional right to some of Alberta&#8217;s oil wealth &#8211; he was technically right but he did damage to his conservative bona fides at least in Alberta.   Of course, he keeps floating the idea that he may run again after Harper steps down.  It will be interesting to see if he is able to whitewash that teeny leftist regression from his resume.</p>
<p>David Alward faces the same challenge.  Over 100,000 NBers collect EI during the course of the year.  Thirty-eight percent of families received at least some EI income in 2010.  In Miramichi, it was 48% of families.  In non-CMA/CA areas (out of urban areas), 52% of families received EI income.  I find it hard to believe the Premier of Alberta would take a different stance on EI than Alward facing that reality.  Then again, maybe she would have never been elected in the first place.</p>
<p>A Liberal friend of mine scoffed at what he called the hypocrisy of the NB PCs demanding the federal Conservatives roll back the EI reforms.</p>
<p>If you are an NDP in Saskatchewan or BC you are likely going to be a fan of uranium mining or natural gas exploration and production.   You may put a tougher spin on the development of those industries but if you take a hard line against them &#8211; good luck trying to get elected (as opposed to New Brunswick where the Liberals see political advantage from a hard line stance against the development of the natural gas industry &#8211; another interesting quirk of politics).</p>
<p>In the end, I think Premier Alward is taking the only stance he could if he wants to stay in power.  Some of the biggest name politicians in NB history have been thrown under the bus for even tinkering with EI (i.e. Doug Young).</p>
<p>It is unlikely the Feds will change their mind anyway but at least Alward will say he vehemently opposed the changes and hope that holds him in good stead.</p>
<p>I hope the Feds will eventually come to the conclusion that the process they used wasn&#8217;t the right one.  I&#8217;ve detailed my views on this elsewhere.  I believe the EI system is a barrier to economic development in rural and Northern NB but I think government has done virtually nothing to prove that and nothing to show it can be changed without hurting the economy even more.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>What is the solution to skills shortages?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5797</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5797#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Apr 2013 11:13:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Outgoing BoC head Mark Carney had some interesting things to say about outsourcing yesterday: Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says the controversial temporary foreign workers program should not be used to drive wages down or to fill lower-skilled jobs. Speaking to the Commons finance committee for the last time before his departure for London [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Outgoing BoC head Mark Carney had some interesting things to say about outsourcing yesterday:</p>
<p><em>Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says the controversial temporary foreign workers program should not be used to drive wages down or to fill lower-skilled jobs. Speaking to the Commons finance committee for the last time before his departure for London in June, Carney said the intent of the program is that it be used primarily to fill needs for high-skilled jobs temporarily, until businesses can train Canadians to take over. He added that the program should concentrate on shortages of high-skilled workers, and not on service jobs and other lower wage categories that critics say are now being filled by foreign imports. The solution to that, said Carney, is for employers to pay higher wages and improve productivity.</em></p>
<p>Last Spring I went to a course in Boston and had the opportunity to chat with a number of Danes taking the training.  These were all folks involved in economic development in Denmark.  One of the senior officials told me there was a lot of frustration because there was a large segment of the population that didn&#8217;t work or only worked part of the year and weren&#8217;t open to retraining.    After chatting with her I checked the stats and Denmark has an adult employment rate of 76 percent &#8211; one of the highest in the world &#8211; New Brunswick&#8217;s employment rate is 56 percent (that is 56 percent of adults are working in an average month &#8211; I believe the methodology used to calculate this rate is a little different in Europe than here so the numbers may not be perfectly comparable).</p>
<p>But I took her point.  Folks like Carney view the labour market as a kind of machine that you can calibrate one way or another.  There are human factors at play here.</p>
<p>I say this because the temporary foreign worker has been widely used to bring in lower skilled workers &#8211; and into areas with high unemployment.  The government is clamping down on this and on paper that makes sense.  However, if employers can&#8217;t find workers from the local area &#8211; regardless of the headline unemployment rate &#8211; clamping down on the TFW program could just end up hurting their businesses.</p>
<p>I still remember a chat I had with an American who was adamantly in favour of legalizing the 13 million undocumented immigrant workers in the U.S.  He told me &#8220;these folks are doing the jobs &#8216;Americans&#8217; don&#8217;t want to do&#8221; and helping to keep wages and prices in check.</p>
<p>My main point here is that the solution to skills shortages has to be partly about changing behaviours and attitudes.  The chart below shows the number of unemployed New Brunswickers per job vacancy across Canada during 2012.   In this province there were over 10 people unemployed for every job vacancy.  So why does the CFIB survey and other business surveys consistently show the lack of qualified workers as a top problem?  There are 10 available workers for every job.</p>
<p>We spend roughly $2.5 billion on education and training in New Brunswick every year (give or take a few hundred million).  This isn&#8217;t just a sorting or matching issue.  We have to understand this in the context of behaviours and attitudes.</p>
<p>What does this have to do with immigrants?  One employer in rural NB told me they work harder and are more productive and eager to get ahead.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/jobvac.jpg" alt="" width="517" height="438" /><br />
&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>New Brunswickers tilting at windmills</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5792</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5792#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Apr 2013 13:38:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5792</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From a recent TJ column: While it would be hard to argue there is widespread unrest across New Brunswick, there certainly are a lot of spirited battles underway on a number of fronts. Civil servants are outraged about proposed changes to their pensions. There are rolling protests around the province decrying the injustice of Employment [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>From a recent TJ column:</em></p>
<p>While it would be hard to argue there is widespread unrest across New Brunswick, there certainly are a lot of spirited battles underway on a number of fronts.</p>
<p>Civil servants are outraged about proposed changes to their pensions. There are rolling protests around the province decrying the injustice of Employment Insurance (EI) reform. A determined group of environmentalists and NIMBYists are determined to halt the development of shale gas and, I suspect, are ramping up to protest any plan for a new oil pipeline.</p>
<p>Even the province’s windmills once a sign of our green pedigree are coming under increased fire for despoiling our pristine landscape and causing migraine headaches among nearby residents.</p>
<p>Welcome to democracy. Everyone’s a rebel with a cause. Everyone fights for their rights. To paraphrase former federal Cabinet Minister David Dingwall, everyone is entitled to their entitlements.</p>
<p>And yet interestingly, after the recent by-election in Kent County, morning newspapers led with “Party leaders agree: voters worried about the economy”.<br />
Really? I am suspicious of that claim. My hunch is that EI reform, shale gas and all of the other targeted grievances were at play far more than any view that Party X or Party Y was going to ‘fix the economy’.</p>
<p>Not that long ago, Premier Alward went to the Miramichi to announce a new company was setting up in the beleaguered city. Was he met by protestors demanding more jobs and economic growth? No, he was met by protestors outraged that hospital beds might be cut.</p>
<p>Of all the causes mentioned above, which ones will address the Kent County voters’ so-called angst about the economy? Rolling back government retiree pension reform? Halting shale gas and stopping an oil pipeline? How about cancelling the EI reforms? Will that fix the economy? Certainly tipping over the windmills and shipping them off to Ontario is not likely to put us back on the road to economic prosperity.</p>
<p>New Brunswick’s economic performance has lagged for decades because there hasn’t been enough private sector investment and ambitious entrepreneurship.<br />
It is unlikely we will see protestors pouring out if Tim Hortons’ with placards demanding the government attract more private industry to the province. It is unlikely you will see social groups extolling the virtues of entrepreneurship, profit making and wealth creation.</p>
<p>Other than that poor, solitary sign on a vacant lot in Blackville that reads “Say yes to shale gas!” it is very unlikely you will ever see a serious protest in favour of shale gas, oil pipelines, mining projects or any other kind of industrial development.</p>
<p>I’m not suggesting pension reform, EI changes or even windmills shouldn’t be vigorously debated in the public square. I am saying that most of the battles we fight as citizens – those that get us whipped up into a frenzy – won’t get the province closer to addressing our longer term economic (and increasingly demographic) challenges.</p>
<p>We need to find a way to get the public seriously interested in the economic development of our communities.</p>
<p>But it’s not easy. Previous economic downturns in the 1970s, 1980s and the early 1990s all featured high unemployment coupled with a younger workforce. New graduates and young families were understandably worried about their personal future.</p>
<p>Now, a large percentage of the workforce is closing in on retirement and not particularly worried about the future. In addition, the high level of migration out of the province has reduced both overall unemployment and the percentage of young people still in the workforce.</p>
<p>It’s much easier to get a retiree to protest windmills than to protest lack of jobs and entrepreneurial activity.</p>
<p>That, in a nutshell, is our problem.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Advocating side deals</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5790</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5790#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Apr 2013 09:28:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5790</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The IMF yesterday warned about Canada&#8217;s economic growth trajectory and suggested the federal government may have to get back into the stimulus business.  Why?  Because economic growth will drop from 1.8% to 1.5%. When Canada&#8217;s economy grows by 1.5% its a worrying trend. When New Brunswick&#8217;s economy grows by 0.2% &#8211; aww, that&#8217;s just New [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The IMF <a href="http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/16/imf-canada-economy/">yesterday warned</a><a href="http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/16/imf-canada-economy/"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> about Canada&#8217;s economic growth trajectory and suggested the federal government may have to get back into the stimulus business.  Why?  Because economic growth will drop from 1.8% to 1.5%.</p>
<p>When Canada&#8217;s economy grows by 1.5% its a worrying trend.</p>
<p>When New Brunswick&#8217;s economy grows by 0.2% &#8211; aww, that&#8217;s just New Brunswick.  What&#8217;d you expect?</p>
<p>Canada is a collection of provincial economies each with their own contours, challenges and opportunities.  When a little province like NB has a problem &#8211; no one notices &#8211; but if it hits enough provinces &#8211; boom, you get weak national growth and the IMF getting its underwear in a knot.</p>
<p>In a macabre kind of way it was fun to watch the Feds in response to the Ontario economy tanking a few years ago.  There was billions for the auto bailout.  An ACOA style regional development agency was set up for southern Ontario.  The government fell over itself to be seen trying to fix the Ontario economy.</p>
<p>The Ontario economy has outperformed NB by a wide margin since the recession &#8211; GDP growth and employment growth &#8211; but it hasn&#8217;t been to the level required to boost national GDP growth &#8211; so the mandarins fret.</p>
<p>This is the main reason why I would prefer the feds to have a &#8216;side deals&#8217; view of relationships with provincial governments.  I&#8217;m not talking about separate deals on Equalization or health transfers &#8211; those should be negotiated by the whole gang.</p>
<p>But when it comes to the priorities of the provinces &#8211; each one has distinct challenges and opportunities.   The feds and the province should figure out how to leverage each level of governments&#8217; strengths to achieve a shared set of objectives.</p>
<p>New Brunswick needs a more intelligent approach to immigration.  It needs to think long and hard about seasonal industries and the implications of EI reform.  It needs at least its share of national FDI.  It needs to encourage more investment capital &#8211; particularly into its high growth potential SMEs.  New Brunswick has a serious literacy challenge.</p>
<p>There are a host of issues &#8211; some are specific to NB and others are regional and even national in scope &#8211; and it requires an intelligent, long term partnership between the feds and the province.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The glue that binds communities together</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5787</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5787#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Apr 2013 23:55:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Here&#8217;s a recent column I wrote in the T-J.  It&#8217;s a business column so I worked in the biz angle at the bottom.  I spent most of last week roaming the vast, empty desert that makes up the state of Nevada. Excluding Las Vegas and Reno, only about 300,000 people live in the entire state [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Here&#8217;s a recent column I wrote in the T-J.  It&#8217;s a business column so I worked in the biz angle at the bottom. </em></p>
<article id="main">
<div id="articleText">
<div></div>
<p>I spent most of last week roaming the vast, empty desert that makes up the state of Nevada. Excluding Las Vegas and Reno, only about 300,000 people live in the entire state across an area four times larger than New Brunswick.</p>
<p>Driving along the lonely rural highway every 50 kilometres or so we came across another small town usually established to service a local mining operation and the occasional travellers from the road.</p>
<p>At the entry point to these towns there was always a large sign listing the civic organizations active in the community. It is fairly impressive as towns with as little as 500-1000 people had two dozen or more of these organizations listed including Chambers of Commerce, Rotary, youth clubs, social groups, sports organizations, etc.</p>
<p>In the social and economic experiment that was the Soviet Union, one of initial goals of the government was to eliminate or usurp civic organizations as they were seen as subversive to the goal of the perfect communist state.</p>
<p>In her fascinating new book, Iron Curtain: The Crushing of Eastern Europe, 1944-1956, Anne Applebaum chronicles how the communist government deliberately crushed virtually all civic and religious organizations without realizing they were eliminating the glue that binds communities together. These organizations provided the context for people to get involved with their neighbours and build relationships worth fighting for.</p>
<p>I am a big fan of the power of volunteer organizations constituted to address community issues ranging from simple business networking through to those meant to tackle a community’s most intractable social challenges. This working in concert – working as community – is the main ingredient in the success of communities over time.</p>
<p>Because government is such a force in modern life in New Brunswick, there is a tendency among many to believe that it – paid public servants – should be solely responsible for addressing community issues.</p>
<p>I recently talked with a guy who was adamantly opposed to any kind of private philanthropy or volunteer support for health care or education initiatives because they are ‘public services’ funded by the taxpayer. Why should the private citizen get involved?</p>
<p>This is short-sighted and misses the point of community. Government can play a foundational role but it would be a mistake to diminish the role of public involvement. This is what makes us better citizens and better people.</p>
<p>I prefer communities where large bands of private citizens and businesses work together to address community challenges such as youth poverty, neighbourhood crime and homelessness.</p>
<p>I extend this thinking into the economic development realm too. Many New Brunswick communities are facing significant economic and demographic challenges and we need to marshal business and community leaders to tackle these problems just as we would crime, literacy or poverty.</p>
<p>Without strong local economies, our communities and province will strain to be able to offer good quality public services and infrastructure. It will also put pressure on our social objectives.</p>
<p>I’d like to see more business people stepping up to the plate – particularly a younger generation of leaders. Most of the business people that are active working on economic development issues around the province are the same people from 20 years ago.</p>
<p>Those that say economic development is “the government’s responsibility” are wrong.  The government has an important role to play representing the interests of the taxpayer but if communities are to change their economic trajectory, it will be in large part because business leaders decided to make it happen.</p>
<p>This is not a random thought. All around New Brunswick, communities are grappling with how they will respond to the provincial and federal governments pulling financial support for regional economic development agencies.</p>
<p>If this is an inflection point that leads to far more local engagement related to economic development, that decision may turn out to have been a great blessing in disguise.</p>
</div>
</article>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>A career delimiting effort</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5782</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5782#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Apr 2013 10:53:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5782</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Lots of folks tell me I have to elevate my analysis to a national perspective or at least to develop some broader theories related to economic development that are applicable far and wide.  I have grappled with this and have made some attempts &#8211; i.e. my Globe writings &#8211; too do this but the reality [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lots of folks tell me I have to elevate my analysis to a national perspective or at least to develop some broader theories related to economic development that are applicable far and wide.  I have grappled with this and have made some attempts &#8211; i.e. my Globe writings &#8211; too do this but the reality is my subject matter area has been discrete by design.  Very few people are actually thinking about economic development problems through the lens of New Brunswick (I&#8217;ll throw in Nova Scotia and PEI here because we share many common challenges).   Academics don&#8217;t see much value in it.  We don&#8217;t have any New Brunswick &#8216;think tanks&#8217;.  Even a lot of the pundits and experts that are accessed think about New Brunswick rarely (i.e. Jack Mintz) and will try and apply ideas framed in other contexts to the situation here.</p>
<p>So we end up with much of the thinking coming out of experts with very little interest or concern in the New Brunswick situation.  The Mowat Centre has churned out research on EI that follows a narrow viewpoint.  Conversely, the vast majority of response on the EI issue has been essentially political &#8211; turning it into a binary choice &#8211; EI reform good, EI reform bad.  Someone somewhere needs to think about this in a more nuanced way.  It&#8217;s just about close to an established fact that EI had become a barrier to economic development in parts of Atlantic Canada.  It had a distorting effect on labour markets and likely had a negative effect overtime on income levels.  However, in its current context, EI has become a very important source of income for tens of thousands of New Brunswickers and there are cultural attributes now &#8211; after decades &#8211; that need to be thought about.</p>
<p>There is very little economic development thinking within government &#8211; ACOA does have a policy shop with some good horsepower &#8211; but for the most part economic development is 99% focused on programming and 1% on ideas and thinking about the future.</p>
<p>So, I have taken on this niche in the full knowledge of its career limiting focus.  Maybe at some point in the future I&#8217;ll grab a larger elephant but for now I think there must be enough horsepower for a few folks to spend their days thinking about how places like New Brunswick can foster economic prosperity.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m able to put food on the table.  I talk with very interesting folks on a weekly basis.  I work with interesting clients.  I can write on a wide range of issues (hard to be narrow when your geographic scope is so tiny) and likely have some limited influence in this space &#8211; I say limited because most of my ideas never find their way into policy.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>What would full employment look like in New Brunswick?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5779</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5779#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Apr 2013 12:03:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Someone asked me this and when I said we would need another 50,000 to 70,000 people working right now in New Brunswick (or about the entire employment base currently in the Saint John CMA), I got an incredulous response. While economists will haggle over the definition of full employment &#8211; no one completely agrees &#8211; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Someone asked me this and when I said we would need another 50,000 to 70,000 people working right now in New Brunswick (or about the entire employment base currently in the Saint John CMA), I got an incredulous response.</p>
<p>While economists will haggle over the definition of full employment &#8211; no one completely agrees &#8211; a simple calculation will bear out my estimate.  On a seasonally adjusted basis, there are just over 350,000 people currently working in New Brunswick. If we assume the employment rate in Alberta and Saskatchewan represents fairly close to full employment and if we apply that employment rate here we would need between 400,000 and 420,000 people working in New Brunswick right now &#8211; or we would need to double the size of employment in the entire Saint John CMA.</p>
<p>Sure, New Brunswick is a little older than Alberta.  Sure, we are a little more seasonal in our industries (somewhat smoothed out in the data by the seasonal adjustment).  But at the end of the day, if our economy was as robust as theirs, it is reasonable to expect we would have a similar employment rate and we would need upwards of 70,000 more people working here.</p>
<p>70,000 people at the average wage would generate $2.94 billion in new employment income and likely around $1 billion in new taxes for the various levels of government which would slay the NB deficit and then some.  Of course, the feds would claw most of it back through equalization but it&#8217;s all just a fantasy anyway so let&#8217;s just keep dreaming for a moment.</p>
<p>If 40,000 of the 70,000 came out of the EI or social assistance programs, it would save governments conservatively another $360 million per year in reduced benefit payments.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s worth thinking about this if for no other reason than to show what could be possible.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>What will be your legacy?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5776</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5776#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Apr 2013 13:31:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[From a recent TJ column: I recently appeared before the Nova Scotia Commission on Building our New Economy to provide my views on how Nova Scotia could foster a stronger economic foundation for the future. The commission is chaired by the president of Acadia University and is mandated to tour the province and consult with [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>From a recent TJ column:</em></p>
<p>I recently appeared before the Nova Scotia Commission on Building our New Economy to provide my views on how Nova Scotia could foster a stronger economic foundation for the future. The commission is chaired by the president of Acadia University and is mandated to tour the province and consult with business, community and academic stakeholders and then report back to the premier and the legislature.</p>
<p>I talked with the commission on a variety of topics that I thought would help Nova Scotia move toward a stronger economy. I provided my thoughts on how we could attract more investment to the province and on how we may be able to foster more high growth potential entrepreneurs.</p>
<p>I talked about the need to view immigration through a more strategic lens and how we are not leveraging our pervasive broadband infrastructure for employment opportunities around the region.</p>
<p>The last question put to me by the chairman was an interesting one. He is determined the commission&#8217;s work will be more than just an academic exercise. He asked me how we could encourage Nova Scotians to embrace a new economic agenda.</p>
<p>This is the crux of the problem. It has been hard to appeal to people on the grounds of personal economic insecurity. Most Nova Scotians and New Brunswickers are doing quite well.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s becoming harder and harder to use the &#8220;do it for your kids&#8221; argument as many have seen their children move away already.</p>
<p>I suggested that &#8216;shame&#8217; might be a good motivator. Do we really want to be the generation of leaders that lets Nova Scotia (and New Brunswick) become even more economically unstable? Ultimately that is a nonstarter as people aren&#8217;t really motivated by shame.</p>
<p>Driving home in my car after meeting the Commission, I settled on the issue of &#8216;legacy&#8217; as the organizing principle for engaging the current generation of community leaders to move forward a bold new agenda for economic prosperity.</p>
<p>It is common today to hear politicians say they aren&#8217;t concerned about their legacy. I say this is a problem. Today&#8217;s politicians should hold themselves and their actions up against the best of the best in their province from decades past.</p>
<p>Today&#8217;s senior public servants should do likewise. In New Brunswick they should look back at the years when medicare was rolled out and when equal opportunity became the law of the land.</p>
<p>They should remember times when the public service did very interesting things and helped turn the big ideas of politicians into workable public policy.</p>
<p>The province&#8217;s business leaders should also consider their legacy &#8211; not only as businesspeople but as builders of community. What good is it if an entrepreneur builds a successful business as the community around them falters?</p>
<p>When they are writing up your biography for admission to the Order of Canada what will they say? That you worked tirelessly to build up your business and your community?</p>
<p>When they are carving your bronze bust for prominent display in a public park, what will be written on the front? That you were the quintessential community leader? That you helped turn things around during a fairly bleak time?</p>
<p>Many of the challenges facing Nova Scotia are similar to New Brunswick. It is unlikely either province will fall off a cliff anytime soon. We will muddle through. There are constitutional commitments that essentially ensure the federal government will continue to top up provincial tax revenues so that we can access health care and other public services.</p>
<p>But muddle through shouldn&#8217;t be good enough. What kind of legacy is that? You wouldn&#8217;t want your epitaph to read &#8220;he just muddled through.&#8221; The same should hold for our communities and for the province.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s put legacy front and centre again. Maybe that will be just the motivator to get people serious about working to change our economic trajectory.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Deficit chickens coming home to roost</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5770</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5770#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:23:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[From my TJ column last Saturday: One of the challenges facing government when it comes to budgetary deficits and debt is that the public doesn&#8217;t really understand how it impacts them specifically. It&#8217;s a vague notion that people don&#8217;t spend too much time worrying about unless it starts to impact them directly. Voters have a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>From my TJ column last Saturday:</em></p>
<p>One of the challenges facing government when it comes to budgetary deficits and debt is that the public doesn&#8217;t really understand how it impacts them specifically. It&#8217;s a vague notion that people don&#8217;t spend too much time worrying about unless it starts to impact them directly. Voters have a clear understanding of the impact on them when a public service they enjoyed is cut or taxes rise as the result of the deficit.</p>
<p>The budget delivered by Finance Minister Blaine Higgs this week will hit most New Brunswickers in the pocketbook. As evidenced by comments on public news websites and the chatter at the coffee shops, a lot of folks are not very pleased. Somewhat surprisingly, even a bigwig among the youth wing of the Tory party in New Brunswick tweeted his disgust with the budget.</p>
<p>It seems that public debt and deficits do become real to people when the government has to dip further in their pockets to try and address them. The chickens eventually do come home to roost.</p>
<p>In reality the tax increases were modest and the budget deficit continues to be a serious problem. Even with the spending cuts and tax increases, the government is forecasting a $400+-million deficit in the coming year.</p>
<p>New Brunswickers are now starting to get it. We have a structural deficit that we will not be able to fix without either deeper service cuts, fairly significant tax increases or robust economic growth that will drive new tax revenues (or a combination of two or more of these).</p>
<p>We need to have a broad conversation about how we can truly stimulate economic growth in this province to fix the short term structural deficit, but also to address the longer term fiscal vulnerability of the province.</p>
<p>In Nova Scotia, the president of Acadia University is heading a commission that is touring the province to ask Nova Scotians how that province can do just that &#8211; put Nova Scotia on a long-term, fiscally sustainable trajectory. Maybe something similar should be done here.</p>
<p>John Herron, of the Atlantica Centre of Energy, is fond of saying you can&#8217;t address an environmental concern with an economic response. People chafe at the notion of despoiling the environment even if there is a substantial economic payoff.</p>
<p>I agree with John on this point but I think many of us are too quick to exaggerate the potential environmental concerns and downplay the economic impacts of certain economic opportunities. Shale gas is the most obvious example, but we see it with other mining projects, forestry developments and even wind energy, as a growing number of New Brunswickers are grumbling about the visual pollution.</p>
<p>New Brunswick is blessed with substantial forests. It has trillions of cubic feet of natural gas. It has fairly sizable deposits of minerals in high demand around the world. In addition, we have land for more agricultural opportunities and other renewable natural resources.</p>
<p>The province has also started to leverage its brainpower for economic development. The recent Startup Week in New Brunswick was an impressive display not only of entrepreneurial spirit but of the widening support for startups among a broad cross-section of New Brunswickers. If we could see a new generation of entrepreneurs emerge building products and services here and taking them to the world &#8211; that would certainly change our economic trajectory.</p>
<p>Talk of economic growth as a solution to beating down government deficits is cold comfort to those grumbling about higher taxes now. But if we don&#8217;t fix our tepid economic growth, those same people will have a lot more spending restraint and tax increases to look forward to in the years ahead.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Remembering Ralph Klein</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5767</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5767#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:19:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I was sorry to see former Alberta Ralph Klein passed away.  He was a colourful guy and presided over a period of prosperity in Alberta. I had an interesting Ralph Klein moment way back when he was first elected.   I was working for the NB Dept. of Economic Development and Tourism at the time and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was sorry to see former Alberta Ralph Klein passed away.  He was a colourful guy and presided over a period of prosperity in Alberta.</p>
<p>I had an interesting Ralph Klein moment way back when he was first elected.   I was working for the NB Dept. of Economic Development and Tourism at the time and a call came in from the Alberta Premier&#8217;s Office at noon.  Everyone else was out of the office so the secretary put the guy through to me.  It was one of Klein&#8217;s advisors and he told me that Klein highly admired what Frank McKenna had done in New Brunswick and he was looking to implement a McKenna style economic development program in Alberta.  We spent nearly an hour talking about how McKenna viewed economic development and the role he personally played as head sales guy/cheerleader for New Brunswick.  I am not sure any of that talk ever got into the Klein playbook.  At the time everyone out there was talking about diversifying the Alberta economy (this was pre-oil sands/shale gas).  The guy I talked with was sure that Alberta would have to diversify its economy and Ralph did spend a lot of dough on economic development &#8211; particularly to build up life sciences research at the university level.</p>
<p>In fact, Ralph was another in a growing list of big spending Tories &#8211; particularly in the latter part of his time in power.  According to RBC Economics, provincial government spending per capita in Alberta <a href="http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/prov_fiscal.pdf">doubled during the Klein years</a><a href="http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/prov_fiscal.pdf"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>.  I specifically remember all the new dough put into life sciences research and Klein confidently predicting that a cure for cancer would come from Alberta.</p>
<p>But in defence of Klein, Alberta student PISA scores have consistently been the highest in Canada and the province&#8217;s post-secondary R&amp;D capacity has been greatly expanded (although I read somewhere the current round of cutting in Alberta will bite into that).  The health care system is also ranked near the top in Canada too.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that Alberta is even more dependent on oil and gas now than it was when Ralph took power.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>A more intelligent export strategy</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5763</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5763#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Mar 2013 11:42:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The government announced its new and anticipated export strategy this week and I wrote some thoughts about it in my Telegraph-Journal column this morning.  I awoke to an email criticizing my views and suggesting that I don&#8217;t understand the purpose of an export strategy.  My views, I was told, are more appropriately placed in a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The government announced its<a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Departments/ed-de/PDF/9212TradeStrategyEnglishWeb.pdf"> new and anticipated export strategy </a><a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Departments/ed-de/PDF/9212TradeStrategyEnglishWeb.pdf"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>this week and I wrote some thoughts about it in my Telegraph-Journal column this morning.  I awoke to an email criticizing my views and suggesting that I don&#8217;t understand the purpose of an export strategy.  My views, I was told, are more appropriately placed in a heading called &#8216;sector strategy&#8217;.</p>
<p>Semantics aside, I will summarize my position here.</p>
<p>It just seemed to me after reading the strategy that it was something you might have expected 25-30 years ago.   Almost all of the 10 action items are focused on those firms that need a hand from a government agency to figure out how to export.  The ten are:</p>
<p>1. Develop a Marketing and Communications Plan for Exports<br />
2. Transition to an Account Manager Support Model<br />
3. Deliver a Suite of Export Training<br />
4. Provide Export Information and Advice<br />
5. Connect Buyers with Sellers<br />
6. Leveraging Transportation Infrastructure<br />
7. Establish an Export Readiness Unit<br />
8. Engage Major Exporters<br />
9. Partner Collaboration<br />
10. Rebuild Assistance Programs</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Another way to look at it is to think about the ideal company that this approach would support (you may have to read the full document for the essence).   It looks to me like the ideal company is the same old target of economic development at least as long as I have been around &#8211; the small firm that is either pre-export, export ready or undertaking limited exports.    A larger firm with well developed markets and sales channels wouldn&#8217;t need the government to provide advice, training, etc. (engage major exporters is a notable exception here).</p>
<p>My point is that this looks like a strategy to find and support new exporters which is not an export strategy.  It might be one objective of a strategy.</p>
<p>If I had been asked, I would have started from the premise -who is exporting now and what firms/sectors have a well developed capacity to export.  For example:</p>
<p>National and international insurance firms in New Brunswick have been ramping up their &#8216;exports&#8217; for years.  A number of them export 50% or more of their activity outside New Brunswick.</p>
<p>Most of the larger engineering firms &#8211; Hatch Mott MacDonald, Stantec, ADI, etc. are exporters.  They are sending New Brunswick based engineers to work on projects around the world.</p>
<p>New Brunswick&#8217;s call centres are almost entirely export-based &#8211; something like 97% of the activity is exported.</p>
<p>The majority of the larger IT firms are primarily exporters.</p>
<p>Not to mention the fact that a dozen primarily natural resources-based firms account for 85% or more of merchandise exports from NB.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I hope this makes my point.  The government needs to decide if they want to grow exports or develop and support small exporters.  Those are not the same thing.  There may be some overlap but they are not the same thing.  An LNG export terminal would generate $1billion in export sales.  A new fertilizer plant would generate $500 million in export sales.  One national computer support help desk would generate $25 million or more in export &#8216;sales&#8217;.    If we could see the insurance industry double its out of province work that would add tens of millions of dollars worth of &#8216;exports&#8217;.</p>
<p>Again, there certainly is a place for supporting small exporters but I really want government to get out of the mindset that its role in economic development is doling out cash and support to small businesses.    My export strategy would be summarized on one page (unlike my verbosity here):</p>
<p>David Campbell export strategy:</p>
<p>Go to the fishing and seafood industry and ask them if there is potential to grow exports.  If yes, how can we help?</p>
<p>Go to the forest products industry and ask them if there is potential to grow exports.  If yes, how can we help?</p>
<p>Go to the engineering industry and ask them if New Brunswick could be a base to service projects in Labrador, Western Canada and beyond.  If yes, how can we help?</p>
<p>Go to the transportation and logistics industry and ask them&#8230;..</p>
<p>Go to the finance and insurance sector and ask them&#8230;.</p>
<p>Go to the NBITC and ask them&#8230;..</p>
<p>Go to the NBADA and ask them&#8230;.</p>
<p>Go to the Alliance of Manufacturers and Exporters and ask them&#8230;..</p>
<p>And, work with local Chambers of Commerce, Conseil Economique, CFIB, etc. on a small business export strategy that may include the kinds of services in the current export strategy if there is demand and clearly definable value.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Finally, I worry about their ability to deliver on their objectives.  If I am reading this right, they are calling for a $2.4 billion increase in the value of total exports over five years.  That is an incredible &#8211; self-sufficiency like &#8211; objective &#8211; unless they have baked an outbound LNG terminal and one or more fertilizer plans (or an oil pipeline) into their plans.   Although that is very unlikely, given the are also calling for 15,000 new jobs as a result of these exports so they must be primarily value added.  An export LNG terminal would only add a few dozen jobs and a new fertilizer plant &#8211; even with supply chain &#8211; is only in the hundreds of jobs.</p>
<p>Of course as my cranky friend pointed out this morning, nothing in the export strategy precludes anything I have said here.  But there is no direct indication in the plan.  No mention of the engineering industry&#8217;s export potential.  No mention of the insurance industry&#8217;s potential, etc.</p>
<p>I wish them well.  They are bang on to focus on the export economy.  I&#8217;m just not sure they will ever break out of the support for small business mindset.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>New myths and new myth makers</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5758</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2013 12:02:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Below is my TJ column from earlier this week.  I have been really struggling to craft a coherent position on EI reform.  One the one hand, I was calling for a similar type of reform that is now in place.   But I had hoped the government would a) spend a lot of time up front [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Below is my TJ column from earlier this week.  I have been really struggling to craft a coherent position on EI reform.  One the one hand, I was calling for a similar type of reform that is now in place.   But I had hoped the government would a) spend a lot of time up front engaging communities and listening to folks before developing the policy (you will recall I advocated for a Royal Commission on the future of EI); and b) that the reforms would start by targeting the low hanging fruit (i.e. the hundreds of truck drivers in New Brunswick that go on EI each year even though trucking firms are facing a big shortage of workers).</p>
<p>Whether we like it or not EI has become a full fledged income support program in dozens of NB communities.  This province has lower than average social assistance recipients (as a percentage of the adult population) and a much lower rate of folks undere the low income cutoff &#8211; compared to Canada as a whole.  When you do some correlations it looks clear to me that without EI as income support, thousands of more NBers would be at risk of going on social assistance or fall below the poverty line.  That EI is being used as a kind of income guarantee won&#8217;t make a lot of folks happy &#8211; but it seems this is the case.</p>
<p>So, not to be Hugh Segal on on this but my point is that if you pull the rug out from under a lot of these folks &#8211; and you push many to social assistance (paid by the provincial government) what have you accomplished?  Now, I have no data to suggest that will happen and nothing more than anecdotes.  Even my theory you could argue is on shaky ground.</p>
<p>My conceptual approach to EI reform would have been focused on low hanging fruit first (i.e. truckers, cracking down on outright fraud like the guy who works two fishing seasons &#8211; one as himself and one as his wife so they both get maximum EI, etc.), followed by a phase 2 where we do a deep analysis of which industries are being kept afloat by EI and which we could jettison (i.e. christmas tree wreath making?) and finally a serious national discussion about the role of seasonal industries and whether or not there should be an income support program at all for these industries.  You could argue the whole thing is a clusterschtook (to quote Dennis Miller) but it is hard to put the Genie back in the bottle on this kind of thing without genuinely hurting some of the most vulnerable in your society.</p>
<p>But, we don&#8217;t get much help from politicians.  Those in opposition see this as red meat &#8211; so don&#8217;t expect any thoughtful or intelligent policy thinking on that front but do expect them to first in line to speak at anti reform protests.</p>
<p>Those in government are keeping their cards close the vest.</p>
<p>So we rely on anecdotes dribbling out into the media.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>******</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>We need new myths and new myth makers</p>
<p>For more than 20 years I have been reading articles and commentary in the national and western Canadian press about Atlantic Canada. While it is true that the business sections of the largest newspapers in Canada will run the occasional story about a successful Cod Father entrepreneur, nearly all of the punditry opine on what they see as the dark side of Canada’s four easternmost provinces.</p>
<p>It’s no wonder that polls have shown a negative view of Atlantic Canadians by those in Ontario and western Canada. In one case I am familiar with, a former New Brunswicker running for office in western Canada airbrushed his Maritime history out of his biography out of fear it would cost him votes.<br />
In an upcoming book, John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker take Atlantic Canada bashing to a new level as they introduce the concept of the “Atlantic Canadian Reality Distortion Field”. The laziness and sense of entitlement in Atlantic Canada leads us to a distorted reality where we see no problem with the rest of Canada shoveling piles of cash down here to keep us living it up on the dole.</p>
<p>What goes unsaid, of course, is that in the majority of Ontario’s urban centres – from Cornwall to Windsor – a higher percentage of workers collect Employment Insurance income than in either Halifax or Fredericton. In fact, Halifax, Fredericton, Moncton, Saint John and St. John’s all have EI usage rates similar to or lower than the national average.</p>
<p>Someone decided decades ago that seasonal workers could access Employment Insurance as a kind of income support program. As a public policy, that is no different than putting billions of dollars’ worth of subsidies in place for western Canadian farmers or billions of dollars for southern Ontario’s automobile manufacturing sector.</p>
<p>The problem is that many of Canada’s esteemed pundits love to take an issue such as seasonal employment and embed it as a sweeping cultural attribute. New Brunswick has seasonal industries ergo all New Brunswickers are lazy slackers with a belligerent sense of entitlement.<br />
Putting aside the fact these Toronto pundits wouldn’t last an hour on a lobster fishing boat in January or cutting pulp wood, I am very uncomfortable with the Atlantic Canada narrative being shaped by these single-minded thinkers.</p>
<p>We should have a rigorous debate in the public square about seasonal industries and whether or not we should use the EI program as an income support mechanism. This is fair game no different than a conversation about agricultural subsidies or automobile manufacturing bailouts.<br />
But the agricultural subsidy debate doesn’t lead pundits to talk about the “Saskatchewan subsidy disruption of the space-time continuum” or the “Ontario bailout intra-universe wormhole”.</p>
<p>If we let Toronto pundits shape our brand, we will always be the lazy and entitled cousins. For Ibbitson and others, it is comforting to think no matter how bad it gets in Ontario it could be worse. We could always live in New Brunswick.</p>
<p>The real story of Atlantic Canada is about Fredericton and the fact that its information technology entrepreneurs are highly sought after by Silicon Valley. It’s about the largest New York law firms using software made in Moncton. It’s about a little forest products firm in Saint John competing and winning against the global industry’s behemoths.<br />
It’s about small urban regions here competing and, in many cases, winning against their larger counterparts across Canada and the United States.</p>
<p>It’s about a region trying to figure out the role of natural resources and seasonal industries in its 21st Century economy.</p>
<p>It other words, the Atlantic Canada brand should be an aspirational one of hope and a gritty determination to build a stronger, knowledge-based economy despite the periodic beatdowns on the opinion pages of national newspapers.</p>
<p>Atlantic Canada needs new myths and new myth makers.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Hugo&#8217;s New Brunswick Legacy</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5754</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Mar 2013 00:50:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[I see Hugo Chavez passed away.  Someone, somewhere is concocting a conspiracy theory.  The Americans must have done it. Anyway, I suspect most New Brunswickers have forgot about Hugo&#8217;s gift to New Brunswick back early in his reign.  He cancelled NB Power&#8217;s orimulsion contract &#8211; I think he preferred to sell the stuff to the Chinese &#8211; costing [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see Hugo Chavez passed away.  Someone, somewhere is concocting a conspiracy theory.  The Americans must have done it.</p>
<p>Anyway, I suspect most New Brunswickers have forgot about Hugo&#8217;s gift to New Brunswick back early in his reign.  He cancelled NB Power&#8217;s orimulsion contract &#8211; I think he preferred to sell the stuff to the Chinese &#8211; costing New Brunswickers ultimately hundreds of millions of dollars.  NB Power had to convert Colson Cove back to running on oil and the price spread between what we were going to pay for orimulsion versus regular oil was substantial.  Not sure if anyone ever really did an audit on this.  We ended up not needing Colson Cove very much and I seem to recall there was some kind of cash settlement with Venezuela.</p>
<p>In a bit of irony, a number of very talented Venezualan musicians have ended up in New Brunswick &#8211; many because of their dislike of Chavez.</p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t really know much about Hugo.  When I heard his family is supposedly worth $2 billion &#8211; at least they say old Castro didn&#8217;t stash the cash.  Of course, its those dastardly Americans telling us about the $2 billion so back to the conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>RIP Chavez.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>ICYMI: The demise of New Brunswick’s Mad Men (and women)</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5750</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5750#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Mar 2013 23:01:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m not sure why this bugs me so much but it does.  I really dislike the fact that New Brunswick&#8217;s advertising and PR business is so piddly compared to everywhere else in Canada.  Below is a recent column I wrote on the subject.    After the column, I got a few emails from the biz with [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I&#8217;m not sure why this bugs me so much but it does.  I really dislike the fact that New Brunswick&#8217;s advertising and PR business is so piddly compared to everywhere else in Canada.  Below is a recent column I wrote on the subject.    After the column, I got a few emails from the biz with some interesting viewpoints.    I like what Derek Riedle is proposing as <a href="http://revolutionstrategy.com/new/new-strategy-new-structure/">a new direction </a><a href="http://revolutionstrategy.com/new/new-strategy-new-structure/"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>for Revolution in Saint John.  I have a soft spot for that firm &#8211; not sure why &#8211; kind of a gritty group.   At a fundamental level I don&#8217;t get why we (NB) can&#8217;t get good in some niche areas and compete far and wide. </em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignright" src="http://www.jupia.ca/pr.jpg" alt="" width="354" height="334" />Statistics Canada published its latest data on the advertising, public relations, and related services sector this week and the numbers for New Brunswick’s industry continue down a grim path. We are witnessing the demise of the Mad Men, or more accurately Mad Women, in this province.</p>
<p>Operating revenue for the industry dropped by another $4.6 million between 2010 and 2011. Total industry revenue is down by 32 percent between 2007 and 2011 while it has increased by seven percent across the country.</p>
<p>Total revenue in the New Brunswick advertising, public relations, and related services sector equates to only $30.70 per capita. That means our Mad Men/Women preside over the smallest industry in Canada adjusted for population size – by a wide margin. Across Canada, this industry generates over $200 per capita.</p>
<p>To illustrate just how small our industry is, New Brunswick’s advertising and PR business generates 85 percent less revenue than the industry across Canada and 40 percent less than its nearest competition in Newfoundland and Labrador – adjusted for the size of the population.</p>
<p>I have been tracking this downward spiral for several years and, despite talking with many of the industry’s luminaries, I haven’t received a satisfactory rationale for this decline.</p>
<p>I’m told that the regionalization of the industry means that more work is being down outside the province than ever before. Several industry leaders told me big firms such as Bell Aliant have been whittling away work in New Brunswick for years. Others say more traditional clients – including government – are moving work in-house furthering the decline of the industry.</p>
<p>Industry profit margins continue to slide. In 2011, the industry’s operating profit was only 6.4 percent down from an annual average of around 10 percent for most of the past decade. In fact, New Brunswick’s advertising, public relations, and related services sector has the dubious distinction of having the lowest profit margin among the 10 provinces across Canada.</p>
<p>I have been raising the red flag on this for several years but all I get is a collective shrug. Industry leaders tell me the decline is mostly inevitable. Government types ignore the sector all together because it doesn’t fit into one of their ‘target’ industries. Meanwhile, a font of creativity and the knowledge economy gets whittled down to virtually nothing. It is a failure both entrepreneurship and economic development policy.</p>
<p>Contrast this debacle with engineering services in New Brunswick. Through entrepreneurial ambition, the engineers have built tremendous expertise over the years in areas such as energy, water/waste water and municipal infrastructure. Using their business in New Brunswick as a base to build expertise, the industry has gone global.</p>
<p>In 2010, the engineering services industry in this province generated $516 per capita &#8211; not much below the $660 per capita generated by the industry across Canada. Importantly, engineering services revenue in New Brunswick has exploded in recent years rising from only $150 per capita a decade ago.</p>
<p>If it is not too late, we need to see if New Brunswick could carve out its own niche in the advertising and PR sector. Built it up here and take it global – just like those stuffy and buttoned-down engineers.</p>
<p>New Brunswick has several software firms active in the social media space and a pile of national and international call centres and back offices. With a little thought and creativity &#8211; and a little more ambition on the part of the industry’s leaders – maybe we could become really competitive in this area.</p>
<p>Government needs to step out of its comfort zone as a bank for industry and be far more creative itself when it comes to economic development. It also needs to get away from strict ideas of what ‘target’ sectors should be. Opportunities can come from anywhere and we need to keep our eyes open and our ear to the ground.</p>
<p>Economic development has a lot of moving parts. Maybe we should put the engineers in charge.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>ICYMI: Not your father’s Fredericton</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5748</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Mar 2013 22:43:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[From a recent TJ column: If I asked you to give a thumbnail sketch of the Fredericton economy, you might be tempted to say it is “a government town”. While public administration remains a vital part of the regional economy it is now far less important than it was 25 years ago. In 1987, there [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From a recent TJ column:<br />
If I asked you to give a thumbnail sketch of the Fredericton economy, you might be tempted to say it is “a government town”.</p>
<p>While public administration remains a vital part of the regional economy it is now far less important than it was 25 years ago. In 1987, there were 16 workers in the public administration sector out of every 100 in the employed workforce. By 2012, that number was down to 11 out of every 100 employed persons.</p>
<p>The fastest growing industry group in the past 25 years by a wide margin has been professional, scientific and technical services. Employment within this segment of the economy tripled between 1987 and 2012.</p>
<p>Fredericton now has the highest concentration of engineers in its workforce compared to any other urban centre across Canada. It is also churning out information technology (IT) startups at an impressive rate. Some of the most interesting new startups in Atlantic Canada call the capital city home with names such as Zaptap, IntroHive and UserEvents.</p>
<p>These firms are hoping to follow in the footsteps of Radian6, Q1 Labs and Chalk Media – successful local startups that were acquired by global IT leaders.<br />
At least in part because of the depth of engineering and IT talent, the German corporate behemoth Siemens recently accounced it was establishing a global Centre of Competence in Fredericton where it will develop innovative Smart Grid applications for clients around the world.</p>
<p>Fredericton’s brainpower comes out of a very impressive local feeder system. Out of the 68 economic regions across Canada, Fredericton-Oromocto has the highest percentage of its workforce employed in educational services.  In 2012, eleven percent of the employed workforce plied their trade in the education sector – led by the University of New Brunswick and St. Thomas University. This was well above Halifax (9 percent), Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (7.8 percent) and Toronto (7.3 percent).<br />
Fredericton has more residents with masters’ degrees than all but three other urban centres across Canada.<br />
Fredericton is also a place that would get Florida excited (specifically, Richard Florida). The community ranks among the top 10 percent of urban centres across Canada for the intensity of artists and cultural sector workers.</p>
<p>What is the prognosis for a community with a highly educated workforce, deep engineering expertise, a growing roster of IT startups and a broad creative and artistic profile?<br />
These economic fundamentals in Fredericton point to a very positive long term outlook. Yet, there are warning signs that we can’t take economic growth in the Fredericton region for granted.</p>
<p>Between 2010 and 2012, the number of employed persons has dropped by 4,300. Enrolment in the city’s two universities is in decline. Much of the brain power is aging as the boomer population moves towards retirement. Continued public sector austerity will likely hit the capital city harder than most.</p>
<p>There are many things that can be done to bolster the local economy over the next decade. Dramatically increasing the number of international students will help stabilize the economic contribution of the education sector and provide a feeder system for new population. Expanding the infrastructure to support knowledge-based startups will make the community even more attractive to ambitious entrepreneurs.</p>
<p>Fredericton’s engineers are well positioned to take advantage of emerging natural resource industries in New Brunswick and beyond.</p>
<p>Fostering more artists and broadening the cultural sector will only increase the community’s quality of life and expand tourism possibilities. If Richard Florida is right, it will also foster more creativity across the local economy.<br />
But the biggest risk to Fredericton’s economic potential may be complacency. To fully take advantage of these emerging opportunities will take time and investment on the part of both the public and private sectors. It will require creative thinking and new partnerships.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Graham cracker crumbs&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5742</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 12:47:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Someone asked for my thoughts on the departing Shawn Graham.  I have mixed views on the Graham government.  On the one hand, I thought a number of their initiatives would have been important contributions to renovating New Brunswick.  But they had challenges communicating their vision to the public &#8211; starting with the &#8220;Be&#8230; in this [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Someone asked for my thoughts on the departing Shawn Graham.  I have mixed views on the Graham government.  On the one hand, I thought a number of their initiatives would have been important contributions to renovating New Brunswick.  But they had challenges communicating their vision to the public &#8211; starting with the &#8220;Be&#8230; in this place&#8221; and moving onward.   In addition, they (as all governments in this province) had trouble going through with their proposed initiatives.  The only one they really got through in the way they wanted was the tax cut program &#8211; although they didn&#8217;t riase the HST as was recommended by Jack Mintz &#8211; the guru they brought into advise them on tax policy.</p>
<p>I liked the focus on immigration &#8211; they started to see immigration as more than just a patch for holes in the labour market.   I have always said we need a more strategic view of immigration and its potential role in New Brunswick.</p>
<p>I thought the plan to sell NB Power was a good faith attempt to address the energy situation in this province.  Conditions on the ground have changed a lot since then and the case for such a sale would be harder to make now.</p>
<p>I liked the &#8216;self-sufficiency&#8217; concept although it seemed to be clunkily communicated as only about reducing reliance on federal government transfers (stated goal &#8211; eliminate the need for equalization payments).    McKenna&#8217;s pull ourselves up by the bootstraps maybe was a little more to the point.</p>
<p>I was a bit baffled by the lack of focus on economic development.  They didn&#8217;t change anything in the economic development system.   There wasn&#8217;t the kind of full court press that McKenna put on economic growth.</p>
<p>But the biggest influence on the Graham government was the great recession.  It hit right as they were trying to implement the agenda.  That completely diverted attention and they spent the last 18-24 months on stimulus and other issues related to recession busting.</p>
<p>Atcon?  Sure, there has to be learnings from that.  No question.  But every government made big bets over the years (think AV Nackawic and $70 million under the Lord government).  If they pay off (i.e. AV Nackawic) no one notices. If they tank (i.e. Bricklin and Atcon) it becomes a debacle and casts a shadow over other economic development efforts.</p>
<p>I have a hard time believing anyone involved in the decision making made any personal profit off Atcon.  I think they were legitimately scared about the prospect of losing 1,500 jobs in the Miramichi &#8211; an area that continues to struggle.</p>
<p>In the end, Graham &#8211; like Lord &#8211; will be more of a footnote in New Brunswick&#8217;s history rather than a prominent player such as LJR or McKenna.    It could have turned out different but things always seem to get in the way.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of&#8230;. debate!</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5739</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5739#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 15:46:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Happy to be debating my fellow economic development thinker Yves Bourgeois at the Let&#8217;s Debate NB dialogue put on by 21 Inc. next week. I suspect that we will not have diametrically opposed views on most of the issues we will be debating in a kind of rapid fire format- urban vs. rural; immigration; big [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Happy to be debating my fellow economic development thinker Yves Bourgeois at the <a href="http://21incdialogue.eventbrite.ca/#">Let&#8217;s Debate NB dialogue </a><a href="http://21incdialogue.eventbrite.ca/#"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>put on by 21 Inc. next week.</p>
<p>I suspect that we will not have diametrically opposed views on most of the issues we will be debating in a kind of rapid fire format- urban vs. rural; immigration; big companies vs. local entrepreneurship; energy; environment; and youth migration &#8211; but we will likely disagree on scope and focus.</p>
<p>You won&#8217;t hear anything groundbreaking from me.  I&#8217;ll be talking about how the success of local entrepreneurship is tied to large businesses in a community and province.  Without some of the larger, anchor firms, local entrepreneurship will struggle.  While I don&#8217;t know what Yves will be saying on urban vs. rural, I suspect as head of an urban institute where is focus will be.  My view on this is evolving somewhat as you have read on these pages.</p>
<p>Like the 100 mile diet and other moves to localize in a global economy &#8211; I have the same view of energy.  I think it would be a shame to import natural gas from as far away as Pennsylvania or Alberta if we have a local supply right here.</p>
<p>On the environment I think we have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.  We could just turn NB into a big national park &#8211; and some would argue that might be our destiny in 50 years or so anyway &#8211; but we have to find a way to sustainably develop natural resources and build highly livable urban environments.  We can learn from mistakes elsewhere and have a stable economic foundation that allows us to pursue community and social goals.</p>
<p>Youth migration?  I dislike efforts to force, guilt or cajole young people to stay in Atlantic Canada.   Some of the brightest folks I know that live here  also spent some time outside this region.   The key point is we need to be importing as many if not more than we exporting.   I will say, however; I do think that young leaders in this region should feel some sense of responsibility and gratefulness to the communities where they were raised.  It&#8217;s not enough to get the heck outta here and then come back in 40 years and scold those that stayed behind for not doing more.   If New Brunswick is to survive and thrive, it will be in large part because at least some of our young leaders decided enough is enough and made a big difference in their local communities.</p>
<p>I hope you can join us.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Fracking fluid?  Bottom&#8217;s up</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5737</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5737#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Feb 2013 21:24:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Someone asked me to comment on the new oil and gas rules released by the government today. As I have said many times I am not the guy for that.  I read them over and it seems they have tried to address all the concerns.  I don&#8217;t know how it will be viewed by industry.   [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Someone asked me to comment on the <a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2013.02.0126.html">new oil and gas rules </a><a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2013.02.0126.html"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>released by the government today.</p>
<p>As I have said many times I am not the guy for that.  I read them over and it seems they have tried to address all the concerns.  I don&#8217;t know how it will be viewed by industry.   I hope they found the right approach.</p>
<p>The reality there are some really bright guys/gals around that are qualified to talk about this stuff and you wont&#8217; find them voicing over grainy images of burned out wastelands on Youtube.  I saw a presentation by <a href="http://www.unb.ca/fredericton/science/geology/faculty/TAL.php">UNB&#8217;s Tom Al </a><a href="http://www.unb.ca/fredericton/science/geology/faculty/TAL.php"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>covering his views on shale gas development last summer.  He was introduced as the most knowledgeable guy in New Brunswick about our geology.</p>
<p>My hope continues to be that we can have a good discussion about this publicly.  I realize there are those being paid to stop the oil and gas industry.  That&#8217;s fine.  That&#8217;s part of democracy.  There are those paid to promote it as well.</p>
<p>I have to admit some frustration when a guy in Albert County gets his 11 year old son out there on the radio passionately pleading for a moratorium on shale gas development.   Someone told me that when they did pre-drilling well tests out in Albert County in 2011 something like half of them were contaminated &#8211; well beyond provincial guidelines.</p>
<p>If water quality is the real issue why not have your 11 year old advocating to clean up the actual problem rather than campaigning against a hypothetical one?  Why not have protests at City Hall demanding action on a real issue rather than a hypothetical one.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s hard not to be cynical about the quality of public debates on large public policy issues.</p>
<p>If you want a little levity in your debate, check out the Governor of Colorado who <a href="http://www.latinospost.com/articles/12172/20130214/colorado-gov-drinks-fracking-fluid-safe.htm">says he has drank fracking fluid</a><a href="http://www.latinospost.com/articles/12172/20130214/colorado-gov-drinks-fracking-fluid-safe.htm"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> to prove it is safe.  Maybe David Alward should tip a glass.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Take the NB heath quiz: where are the biggest boozers?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5732</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5732#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2013 21:03:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To the snarky guy who made fun of my TJ byline that states &#8220;writes a daily blog&#8221;, here&#8217;s the math.  3205 original blog posts here since October 2004.  Roughly 3,045 days since I started the blog. Or, an average of one blog per day. It&#8217;s true I have been a little tardy lately - busy doing [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To the snarky guy who made fun of my TJ byline that states &#8220;writes a daily blog&#8221;, here&#8217;s the math.  3205 original blog posts here since October 2004.  Roughly 3,045 days since I started the blog. Or, an average of one blog per day.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s true I have been a little tardy lately - busy doing the day job.  In fact, I have been accumulating an enormous amount of primary data in recent weeks.   I have interviewed over 70 people for four different projects and if you roll in a bunch of round table discussions and two large forums &#8211; I have been talking with several hundred folks over a two and half month period.  That kind of stuff you don&#8217;t get from Google.</p>
<p>Anyway, I also recently had a look at Canadians&#8217; health data from Statistics Canada.  I have reviewed this before but I always find the regional variations interesting.</p>
<p>Saint Johners have the highest perceived health &#8211; very good or excellent while Campbelltonians have lowest.</p>
<p>When it comes to life satisfaction, Miramichiers take the cake with 96.3 percent saying they are satisfied or very satisfied with their lives compared to 92.3 percent across Canada.  Campbelltonians have the lowest percentage satisfied or very satisfied but still it is quite high.</p>
<p>On the self-reported mental health front, Campbelltonians also have the lowest percentage rating their mental health as very good to excellent.  Bathurstians have the best mental health with 72.3 percent rating their mental health as very good to excellent.   The mental health outlook in the Miramichi is quite a bit better than it was in 2003.</p>
<p>As for perceived life stress (quite a lot), Edmundstonians are the most stressed out with 28.5 percent saying they had quite a lot of stress in their lives.  Bathurstians have the least stress.  For some reasons Miramichiers are dramatically more stressed out in 2011 than they were in 2003 (a 50 percent increase) &#8211; don&#8217;t forget Chiers have the  highest life satisfaction scores.</p>
<p>The chubbiest region of New Brunswick is Miramichi with 69.6 percent of adults reporting they are overweight or obese.  Monctonians are the most svelt &#8211; although that is relative as they are still fatter than Canadians as a whole.</p>
<p>Monctonians have the dubious distinction of being the biggest boozers with 28.6 percent saying they consume 5 or more drinks on one occasion, at least once a month in the past year.  Surprisingly, Edmundstonians drink the least despite being closer to the cheap beer.  The Miramichiers are among the least likely to heavy drink (self-reported) but the percentage has risen by 21.4% since 2003 (I know I am not supposed to take the percentage change of a percentage but&#8230;.).</p>
<p>And one the stat that takes the strange case is the high blood pressure in the Fredericton region. It&#8217;s not the highest in the province &#8211; that disinction goes to Campbellton &#8211; but it has risin 87% since 2003.   Self-reported high blood pressure in Saint John has gone down.</p>
<table width="328" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<colgroup>
<col width="200" /></colgroup>
<colgroup>
<col span="2" width="64" /></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" width="328" height="20"><strong>Perceived health, very good or excellent  &#8211; % of Total (aged 12 and over)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Geography</td>
<td align="right">2011</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">% Change 03-11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Canada</td>
<td align="right">59.9</td>
<td align="right">2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New Brunswick</td>
<td align="right">53.9</td>
<td align="right">6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Moncton area</td>
<td align="right">49.2</td>
<td align="right">-7.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Saint John area</td>
<td align="right">58.4</td>
<td align="right">10.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Fredericton area</td>
<td align="right">57.3</td>
<td align="right">14.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Edmundston area</td>
<td align="right">50.7</td>
<td align="right">8.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Campbellton area</td>
<td align="right">43.9</td>
<td align="right">2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Bathurst area</td>
<td align="right">55.1</td>
<td align="right">17.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Miramichi area</td>
<td align="right">52.8</td>
<td align="right">15.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" height="20"><strong>Life satisfaction, satisfied or very satisfied </strong><br />
<strong>  &#8211; % of Total (aged 12 and over)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Geography</td>
<td align="right">2011</td>
<td> % Change 03-11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Canada</td>
<td align="right">92.3</td>
<td align="right">1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New Brunswick</td>
<td align="right">93.5</td>
<td align="right">2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Moncton area</td>
<td align="right">93.5</td>
<td align="right">1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Saint John area</td>
<td align="right">93.6</td>
<td align="right">3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Fredericton area</td>
<td align="right">92.8</td>
<td align="right">-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Edmundston area</td>
<td align="right">91.3</td>
<td align="right">2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Campbellton area</td>
<td align="right">90.5</td>
<td align="right">1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Bathurst area</td>
<td align="right">94.9</td>
<td align="right">3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Miramichi area</td>
<td align="right">96.3</td>
<td align="right">7.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" height="20"><strong>Perceived mental health, very good or excellent </strong><br />
<strong>  &#8211; % of Total (aged 12 and over)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Geography</td>
<td align="right">2011</td>
<td> % Change 03-11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Canada</td>
<td align="right">72.6</td>
<td align="right">-1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New Brunswick</td>
<td align="right">68</td>
<td align="right">0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Moncton area</td>
<td align="right">65.2</td>
<td align="right">-5.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Saint John area</td>
<td align="right">69.9</td>
<td align="right">-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Fredericton area</td>
<td align="right">68</td>
<td align="right">1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Edmundston area</td>
<td align="right">67.5</td>
<td align="right">7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Campbellton area</td>
<td align="right">59.8</td>
<td align="right">-7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Bathurst area</td>
<td align="right">72.3</td>
<td align="right">9.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Miramichi area</td>
<td align="right">71.5</td>
<td align="right">13.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" height="20"><strong>Perceived life stress, quite a lot (15 years and over) </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Geography</td>
<td align="right">2011</td>
<td> % Change 03-11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Canada</td>
<td align="right">23.6</td>
<td align="right">-2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New Brunswick</td>
<td align="right">18.9</td>
<td align="right">-21.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Moncton area</td>
<td align="right">17.4</td>
<td align="right">-27.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Saint John area</td>
<td align="right">17.5</td>
<td align="right">-31.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Fredericton area</td>
<td align="right">19.5</td>
<td align="right">-4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Edmundston area</td>
<td align="right">28.5</td>
<td align="right">-26.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Campbellton area</td>
<td align="right">25.6</td>
<td align="right">-8.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Bathurst area</td>
<td align="right">14</td>
<td align="right">-39.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Miramichi area</td>
<td align="right">23.1</td>
<td align="right">50.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" height="20"><strong>Body mass </strong><strong> index, self-reported, adult (18 years and over), overweight or obese </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Geography</td>
<td align="right">2011</td>
<td> % Change 03-11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Canada</td>
<td align="right">52.1</td>
<td align="right">5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New Brunswick</td>
<td align="right">59.4</td>
<td align="right">4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Moncton area</td>
<td align="right">56.9</td>
<td align="right">1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Saint John area</td>
<td align="right">58.2</td>
<td align="right">2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Fredericton area</td>
<td align="right">58.3</td>
<td align="right">3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Edmundston area</td>
<td align="right">62.4</td>
<td align="right">5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Campbellton area</td>
<td align="right">61.4</td>
<td align="right">2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Bathurst area</td>
<td align="right">62.5</td>
<td align="right">13.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Miramichi area</td>
<td align="right">69.6</td>
<td align="right">8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" height="20"><strong>5 or more  drinks on one occasion, at least once a month in the past year  &#8211; % of Total (aged 12 and over)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Geography</td>
<td align="right">2011</td>
<td> % Change 03-11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Canada</td>
<td align="right">19</td>
<td align="right">14.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New Brunswick</td>
<td align="right">21.7</td>
<td align="right">6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Moncton area</td>
<td align="right">28.6</td>
<td align="right">15.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Saint John area</td>
<td align="right">19.1</td>
<td align="right">-6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Fredericton area</td>
<td align="right">19</td>
<td align="right">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Edmundston area</td>
<td align="right">18.1</td>
<td align="right">-4.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Campbellton area</td>
<td align="right">24.1</td>
<td align="right">14.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Bathurst area</td>
<td align="right">18.2</td>
<td align="right">6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Miramichi area</td>
<td align="right">18.7</td>
<td align="right">21.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" height="20"><strong>High blood pressure &#8211; % of Total (aged 12 and over)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Geography</td>
<td align="right">2011</td>
<td> % Change 03-11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Canada</td>
<td align="right">17.6</td>
<td align="right">22.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">New Brunswick</td>
<td align="right">21.7</td>
<td align="right">34.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Moncton area</td>
<td align="right">19.2</td>
<td align="right">25.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Saint John area</td>
<td align="right">17</td>
<td align="right">-4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Fredericton area</td>
<td align="right">27.1</td>
<td align="right">86.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Edmundston area</td>
<td align="right">17.7</td>
<td align="right">19.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Campbellton area</td>
<td align="right">36.1</td>
<td align="right">58.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Bathurst area</td>
<td align="right">22.2</td>
<td align="right">55.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">Miramichi area</td>
<td align="right">25.7</td>
<td align="right">17.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Don Mills the Just</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5729</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5729#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 Feb 2013 13:39:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5729</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everyone&#8217;s favourite pollster is doing the rounds in the Maritimes pitching a fresh view on urban and rural development.  He has adopted what would be called in religious terms a fundamentalist view of urban/rural development as he now defines urban areas as small as a town of 5,000.   This is actually Statistics Canada&#8217;s view although they [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everyone&#8217;s favourite pollster is doing the rounds in the Maritimes pitching a fresh view on urban and rural development.  He has adopted what would be called in religious terms a fundamentalist view of urban/rural development as he now defines urban areas as small as a town of 5,000.   This is actually Statistics Canada&#8217;s view although they seemed to have tweaked their wording in 2011 and now call them <a href="http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table-Tableau.cfm?LANG=Eng&amp;T=802&amp;PR=13&amp;S=51&amp;O=A&amp;RPP=999">&#8216;population centres&#8217; </a><a href="http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table-Tableau.cfm?LANG=Eng&amp;T=802&amp;PR=13&amp;S=51&amp;O=A&amp;RPP=999"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>rather than urban areas.</p>
<p>For Mills the focus should now be on urban development &#8211; not just Halifax and Saint John but smaller &#8216;urban&#8217; places such as Yarmouth and Campbellton.    The rest should be left to their own devices.  Public services should be centralized in urban areas, economic development, etc.</p>
<p>Mills goes on to talk about EI and the entitlement mentality that exists here, etc.</p>
<p>This is really a variation on the theme, however.  I have long said here that you need to have urban areas connected to each other by a reasonable geographic distance.   Take Nova Scotia, if all development happens in Halifax and very little anywhere else, you end up with a very unstable situation.  Everything just peters out the further you go from Halifax &#8211; except in the direction of Moncton which is probably why the corridor between Halifax and Moncton &#8211; places like Truro and Amherst  - have done reasonably well.   If Nova Scotia had a small but growing urban concentration in Yarmouth &#8211; it would make the outlook for the whole region in that part of the province much stronger.  If there is no urban hub down there at all &#8211; it&#8217;s problematic in the long term.</p>
<p>My view is that we need to go bakc the drawing board.  We have opportunities in the urban areas.  We have opportunities in the rural areas.  We should pursue both.  Almost by definition &#8211; in a knowledge based economy &#8211; the opportunities are greater in the urban areas.</p>
<p>Now we have a situation where urban development is occuring and there is growing push back against any kind of development in rural areas and smaller towns.   Increasingly, many areas are satisfied with their migration to retirement villages.   Again, as I have said before, that is not viable.  A retirement village in most cases does not generate enough of an economic base  to be viable &#8211; except those in close proximity to an urban centre.</p>
<p>Anyway, I probably agree with Don Mills on 90 percent of his new view on this.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Research vs. innovation vs. start-ups</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5725</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5725#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Feb 2013 11:37:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5725</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Premier announced (re-announced?) the government&#8217;s innovation strategy &#8211; which will be anchored by a new Research and Innovation Council co-chaired by a good pick &#8211; Geoff Flood from T4G.    I am a bit confused by the mandate of this new intiative.  Is it to foster more research?  Promote innovation or foster more new tech-based [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Premier announced (re-announced?) the government&#8217;s innovation strategy &#8211; which will be anchored by a new Research and Innovation Council co-chaired by a good pick &#8211; Geoff Flood from T4G.    I am a bit confused by the mandate of this new intiative.  Is it to foster more research?  Promote innovation or foster more new tech-based start-ups?  My confusion stems from the ambigious language around the effort.</p>
<p>Of course I have no problem with R&amp;D spending.  Read the thousand blog posts on that subject here.  I have no problem with innovation as a theme.  I am very interested in how we stimulated tech-based start-ups.  In fact, I am dramatically more interested in that latter pathway to economic dvelopment than I was five years ago.</p>
<p>But if the government wants more tech-based start-ups why not just be more blunt about it and set up a Tech-Based Start-Up Council?  That would likely look and feel a whole lot different than a Research and Innovation Counci.</p>
<p>The Atlantic Innovation Fund was set up to stimulate more research among mostly SMEs in Atlantic Canada.  It is a worthy initiative and has done good work but it hasn&#8217;t led to a massive new crop of tech-based start-ups.  That wasn&#8217;t its mandate.</p>
<p>My only point here is one of seeking clarity.  Government officials seem to be conflating terms such as &#8216;research&#8217; and &#8221;innovation&#8217; with &#8216;start-ups&#8217;.  While there can be a causal link between them, they are essentially three separate terms.</p>
<p>And then it all comes back to priorities.  Is the priority to stimulate economic growth?  If so, the focus should be on how do we foster more private sector investment in the province.   I am not sure R&amp;D as a primary focus is the best pathway to stimulate a lot of new private sector investment.</p>
<p>Of course economic development has a lot of moving parts.  We need a strategy to firm up the potential of natural resources, energy and other areas of opportunity.  Some of those were pointed to in the Premier&#8217;s address last night.</p>
<p>A pure R&amp;D focus is a longer term play.    If you talk with folks at ACOA about the AIF they will say it&#8217;s benefits have yet to be played out on the regional economy.</p>
<p>In the shorter term we need to foster private sector investment.    We need to turn over every rock. Target and Walmart should be encouraged to put regional distribution centres in Moncton.  Plans to reverse the LNG facility in Saint John should be underway.  If SWN is getting cold feet about shale gas, we should be out talking to ExxonMobil or some other credible player.   We should be convincing our many call centres to migrate into social media from their New Brunswick operations.  We need a plan to foster more tech-based startups.  I favour bringing them in from India, Poland and other emerging markets where there are numerous tech entrepreneurs hankering to get into the North American market.</p>
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<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Taxing sin (particularly gluttony?)</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5722</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5722#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2013 22:12:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5722</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I see the TJ is calling for sin taxes as a way to raise revenue although they roll in pop and chips under this rubric.    I am not sure Vachon Cakes should be in the same category as gambling, booze and cigs but I guess these days sin is in the eye of the beholder [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see the TJ is calling for sin taxes as a way to raise revenue although they roll in pop and chips under this rubric.    I am not sure Vachon Cakes should be in the same category as gambling, booze and cigs but I guess these days sin is in the eye of the beholder (or sinner in this case).</p>
<p>When I took that course last spring on innovation in economic development at Harvard, the lady sitting next to me was from Denmark where her son &#8211; a member of the government &#8211; was in charge of implementing a sin tax (as defined above) in that country.  They rolled it out even as we were at the course.</p>
<p>They dumped it six months later &#8211; it was deeply unpopular mainly because people thought it was unfair &#8211; tax pop but no tax on very fat imported cheese.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t often disagree with the folks at the TJ but this time I feel compelled to.  There are other ways to impact social behaviour that putting more tax on selected food groups.    I guess if there was a national or even international move it would be easier but for a province to do it alone &#8211; tough politically for sure.  The NB government has displayed a desire to proceed cautiously across just about every public policy issue &#8211; I don&#8217;t think they would jump into something like this.</p>
<p>They may raise the HST a point or two &#8211; but don&#8217;t bet on it before the election.  Now they have said the budget wouldn&#8217;t be balanced before the election so there is no political reason to raise the HST.</p>
<p>In the end we are  out of balance &#8211; structurally.  The Taxpayer Federation wants goernment to slash and burn programs.  The Business Council &#8211; yes the Council &#8211; is calling for tax increases.  Others want a greater focus on economic development.  The feds and their 40% transfer payments are out there in a bit of limbo.</p>
<p>Like any Solmonesque and politically tuned government, they will likely do a smorgasbord of things &#8211; raise some taxes, commit to some spending cuts, try and raise new revenue elsewhere.  The Lord folks loved to raise fees way back when.    That way you piss off everyone a bit but not a big swath of voters a whole lot.    The latter is what kills you &#8211; if Al Hogan turns lock stock and barrel against you &#8211; you end up with 11 straight days with the front page story on the evils of toll highways.  By election day poor old Camille Theriault had little horns coming out the sides of his head.</p>
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<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Higgs, Holt and the Looking Glass</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5719</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5719#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2013 13:47:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5719</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fredericton&#8217;s worst kept secret &#8211; that the province would not be able to balance its books by the next election &#8211; came out today.  If you read this blog from the first Tory budget you will see that I said it would be virtually impossible to balance the books without some dramatic new source of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fredericton&#8217;s worst kept secret &#8211; that the province would not be able to balance its books by the next election &#8211; came out today.  If you read this blog from the first Tory budget you will see that I said it would be virtually impossible to balance the books without some dramatic new source of tax revenue or some large scale unforeseen private sector economic activity.  We were (and are) in a perfect storm when big private sector investment projects were winding down and the government was curtailing spending.  That has led to very weak economic growth and reduced expected tax revenues &#8211; presto &#8211; no balanced budget likely until 2015 &#8211; maybe beyond.</p>
<p>It is unlikely the Tories will take a political hit for this as deficits and budgets have always been an abstract concept to taxpayers up until the point it hits them personally &#8211; then it becomes more of an issue which is why governments are loathe to take a cleaver to spending or raise taxes in any substantial way.</p>
<p>The Liberal response so far has been to increase the rhetoric against &#8216;big business&#8217; &#8211; although I guess for French speaking New Brunswick it&#8217;s further refined as &#8216;multinational&#8217; business.  It would be nice if the Libs would put forward some ideas on a growth agenda that didn&#8217;t involve stifling investment.</p>
<p>We are living in Alice&#8217;s Wonderland.  The Business Council &#8211; made up of those evil big businesses &#8211; called for tax increases &#8211; on big businesses as well as other areas &#8211; and have recieved quite a pummelling in social media and among some pundits.   I thought it was a courageous move &#8211; and counterintuitive.  I guess when you are Darth Vadar you can&#8217;t win.  Call for lower taxes &#8211; get pilloried for raw self-interest.  Call for tax increases &#8211; get pillored for&#8230;&#8230;</p>
<p>The Canadian Tax Federation is apoplectic over the call for an HST increase &#8211; even with more aggressive rebates for low income families.   I reiterate that most economists &#8211; certainly not all &#8211; prefer consumption taxes as they are clean, neat and relatively predictable.  There is less room for error and gaming the system through clever tricks.</p>
<p>Speaking of clever tricks, when Bernard Lord dropped the small business tax rate to 5% (or was it 3%?) &#8211; he was heralded by CFIB, Chambers and just about everyone else as a hero.  I simply asked for data to show the value to the economy of that cut.   Within five years of the cut, the number of small businesses in the province had actually declined by two percent &#8211; one of the worst rates of business formation (or lack thereof) across North America.  We were told cutting small business tax rates would stimulate small business activity and we received no proof &#8211; no after the fact analysis &#8211; nothing.</p>
<p>We do know that something like 1,000 unincorporated small businesses converted to incorporated small businesses within a year or so of the rate cut.  It looks like some folks wanted to shift income from labour to profit to get a lower rate.</p>
<p>I say all this for two reasons:</p>
<p>1) Tax policy should have a point.  Here I don&#8217;t actually care what that point is but there needs to be a point.  If you say you are cutting small business tax rates to stimulate new investment in small business than please back up that with some proof (either pre or post).  If you say you are cutting small business taxes because you think it is the moral thing to do (an ugly word in tax policy) than say so but don&#8217;t gloss it up as a measure to stimulate economic activity.</p>
<p>2) 95% of small business activity is reactive &#8211; it reacts to what is going on in the local economy.  If the market for electricians is weak, cutting their taxes will not increase the need for electricians &#8211; or restaurants &#8211; or coffee shops or any other of the 40,000 small businesses in this province.  Don&#8217;t promote tax policy as a vehicle that will do something when it will not.  If you want to use tax policy to stimulate investment than do so &#8211; directly.  Tie the tax break to the investment.</p>
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<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Jim Meek and the charge of the light-thinking brigade</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5716</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5716#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2013 11:58:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Jim Meek has a good editorial in Progress magazine this week.   Edgy and more caustic than usual, Meek makes the point that we have to face up to our challenges and not just gloss them over.  Progress magazine &#8211; in name and substance &#8211; is a publication that celebrates entrepreneurial success in this region.   I [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jim Meek has a <a href="http://www.progressmedia.ca/article/2013/01/charge-light-thinking-brigade">good editorial in Progress magazine </a><a href="http://www.progressmedia.ca/article/2013/01/charge-light-thinking-brigade"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>this week.   Edgy and more caustic than usual, Meek makes the point that we have to face up to our challenges and not just gloss them over.  Progress magazine &#8211; in name and substance &#8211; is a publication that celebrates entrepreneurial success in this region.   I know from the couple of times I wrote for them that they aren&#8217;t much into negativism or deep navel gazing.  And that&#8217;s fine.  Progress is what it is.  But even in that haven of positive thinking, it is nice to see a guy like Meek &#8211; known and respected in this region &#8211; making these important points.</p>
<p>His title &#8220;charge of the light-thinking brigade&#8221; is a powerful one if you have read up on that battle (and the Tennyson poem).   I recently read Orlando Figue&#8217;s wonderful but disturbing book on the Crimean War and as a result I took special interest when I saw his column.</p>
<p>As I have said before many times we have two audiences and we need to have the wisdom to separate them.  To the external audience, potential investors, potential entrepreneurs, immigrants, etc. we need to promote our strengths and the opportunities that are here.  To the internal audience, we need to celebrate our successes but at the same time we need to have sober and honest discussions about our challenges &#8211; about what holds us back.   In a deeply conservative place like the Maritimes (small c conservative), we don&#8217;t like this kind of discussion.  The issue of EI reform is a perfect example.  Instead of having an intelligent conversation about the premise of the reforms &#8211; i.e. that EI was holding back business investment in rural areas &#8211; most of the response is singularly focused on how the changes will hurt these communities.  That may or may not be true &#8211; as I have said we don&#8217;t have the research to support either response &#8211; but I was disheartened that our only response as a region was demanding a return to the status quo.</p>
<p>We need to figure out how to foster a new generation of high growth potential entrepreneurs.  We have a few examples &#8211; Radian6, Ocean Nutrition, etc. but we need more.</p>
<p>We need to attract more anchor export-oriented multinationals.  Increasingly these firms are moving back &#8216;onshore&#8217; Dell, GE, Apple, many more &#8211; we need to promote this region as a great place to build products, services and new technologies.</p>
<p>We need to attract talent -</p>
<p>We need to figure out how to address rural decline in this region.  Natural resources development must be a part of this.  The vision of rural areas as quiet, retirement villages is not sustainable.</p>
<p>Kudos to Progress Magazine - through Meek &#8211; for joining the ranks of the curmudgeons.  We need cheerleaders &#8211; yes.  But we need cranky folks point out our weak spots as well.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Dispatches from the road: Dallas</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5712</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5712#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jan 2013 14:05:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I am spending a few days in the Dallas-Forth Worth area on vacation with a side objective to check out the development of Barnett shale gas down here.   I wasn&#8217;t interested in plowing through all the literature on this.  My only goal was to drive around and see for myself &#8211; at least at a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am spending a few days in the Dallas-Forth Worth area on vacation with a side objective to check out the development of Barnett shale gas down here.   I wasn&#8217;t interested in plowing through all the literature on this.  My only goal was to drive around and see for myself &#8211; at least at a superficial level &#8211; how this type of development can impact a local community.</p>
<p>Dallas itself is an interesting place.  The US customs officer expressed surprise that we were going to Dallas on &#8216;vacation&#8217; &#8211; of all the places we could visit.  I have been travelling to the U.S. for more than 25 years and have visited every single state in the Union except Hawaii.  Dallas is no New York, San Francisco or even San Diego but it has very nice features.  The food here is excellent and the cultural attributes are quite unique relative to other parts of the States.</p>
<p>As for shale gas, we spent time driving around a community in the metro area with a rapidly developing industry.  I had met with the City Planner a few months ago and knew all the back story but I wanted to see for myself.   Obviously I didn&#8217;t visit every nook and cranny but from what we could there isn&#8217;t much visual impact except the &#8216;construction&#8217; phase when new wells have the look of a new house or building while it is being construction.  Once the well is in place and the land around it has grassed in, it just looks a bit like a small radio tower or a hydro line.  We did see pipeline and other above ground infrastructure in a couple of places too.</p>
<p>We watched the TV the first night we were here (tired from the trip) and saw an advertisiment by gas companies assuring folks that protecting water was their number one priority.  If you Google it, you will find there are shale gas protests down here and come communities are changing their by-laws to reflect concerns.</p>
<p>Ultimately I didn&#8217;t really learn much other than it is unlikely shale gas in New Brunswick will lead to the kind of visual carnage some people have been warning of (bleak, industrial landscape was my favourite).  Unless you define bleak industrial landscape as having a gas well every kilometre or so down the road as bleak.</p>
<p>As I have said before the environmental and geological debate is one for others.  But I continue to come back to my premise.  New Brunswick has a lot of natural gas under the ground &#8211; way down well below the water table &#8211; but it is there and it could be extractable.    It is our resource.  We are going to need new sources of natural gas to provide energy to industries and homes in New Brunswick soon &#8211; as Sable winds down.  We can either bring up shale gas from the U.S. or we can try and develop our own.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>EI and local labour market distortions</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5709</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5709#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jan 2013 19:57:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[My column in the TJ today was on the EI changes and the growing protests.  Someone asked me to clarify a few points so here goes. First, one of the main problems with the EI system particularly in rural and northern NB is that is has a distorting effect on local labour markets.  In areas [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My column in the TJ today was on the EI changes and the growing protests.  Someone asked me to clarify a few points so here goes.</p>
<p>First, one of the main problems with the EI system particularly in rural and northern NB is that is has a distorting effect on local labour markets.  In areas with unemployment of 15%, for example, there is &#8216;unemployment&#8217; &#8211; the number of peopel who are unemployed and then there is &#8216;unemployment&#8217; &#8211; the number of people really available for work.</p>
<p>My point is that if we have a de facto support program for seasonal workers and the EI program basically puts these folks &#8216;through the motion&#8217; of looking for work each year, it does distort the labour market.  The whole impetus for the EI changes came as a result of business people telling government that they can&#8217;t find workers to stay in jobs year round even in regions with very high unemployment.</p>
<p>All I am saying is that those folks who are not really actively looking for work and won&#8217;t be shouldn&#8217;t be showing up as unemployed and actively looking for work.</p>
<p>If you want to have an income support program for seasonal workers &#8211; don&#8217;t pretend it is unemployment insurance.</p>
<p>Second, I don&#8217;t think the government every really made the case that changes were needed.  They should have done research and made the case to the public.</p>
<p>I said before and I&#8217;ll say it again, any potentially significant public policy changes such as that should go through a process of public input, feedback, research, etc. rather than just imposition.</p>
<p>The point is that the EI changes were supposed to be &#8211; on paper &#8211; good for people and good for local economies.    Now we are being told by opposition parties and opponents that is going to kill rural and northern NB.  Which is it?  Will it remove labour market distortions and create an environment where businesses want to invest or will it kill rural economies?</p>
<p>The problem is that no one really knows.</p>
<p>I conclude my column with:</p>
<p><em>With these new changes, we will stumble along by trial and error with local officials making judgement calls about who should be forced to work suitable employment and at what wage level. </em></p>
<p><em>For those like me who want to see tangible economic renewal in rural and northern New Brunswick, it looks like we are in for a period of even more uncertainty. </em></p>
<p><em>Good luck trying to get businesses to invest in that environment.</em></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>FDI through acquisition: The BioVectra example</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5706</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5706#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jan 2013 00:02:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In the old days (when I was active in the FDI attraction biz), we were 100 percent focused on attracting greenfield investments.   In other words, we were trying to attract a firm from somewhere else to establish a manufacturing facility, call centre, software development studio, etc. here to service export markets. Nowadays it is just [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the old days (when I was active in the FDI attraction biz), we were 100 percent focused on attracting greenfield investments.   In other words, we were trying to attract a firm from somewhere else to establish a manufacturing facility, call centre, software development studio, etc. here to service export markets.</p>
<p>Nowadays it is just as likely &#8212; even more likely &#8211; that FDI is flowing into the region via acquisition.  The<a href="http://www.pe.dailybusinessbuzz.ca/Provincial-News/2013-01-04/article-3150395/PE%3A-U.S.-company-sets-sights-on-BioVectra/1?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter"> latest version of this </a><a href="http://www.pe.dailybusinessbuzz.ca/Provincial-News/2013-01-04/article-3150395/PE%3A-U.S.-company-sets-sights-on-BioVectra/1?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>is PEI&#8217;s BioVectra which is  being purchased by a US pharma.   There have been a pile of examples from Ocean Nutrition to Radian6.  I don&#8217;t have any data to back this up but my hunch is that far more FDI has flowed into this region via acquisition in recent years than greenfield (excluding the energy sector).</p>
<p>This has become an awkward issue for investmen attraction agencies.    On the one hand, it is FDI coming into the region and a large chunk of that FDI will flow around the region in the form of new tax revenue, seed money for new startups, new jobs in other sectors, etc.   However, politicians and others grumble about the loss of corporate control.  They bemoan thte locus of control over investment, jobs and even philanthropic spending shifting outside the region.</p>
<p>And they have a point &#8211; up to a point.  In the end, we cannot and should not restrict this kind of inward investment and I would argue in some sectors we should be encouraging it.</p>
<p>The life sciences sector across North America has been one that has almost exclusively grown through this cycle of research &#8211; entrepreneurship &#8211; scale &#8211; acquisition &#8211; more research &#8211; more entrepreneurship &#8211; more scale &#8211; more acquisition.  When I looked at it last year, I couldn&#8217;t find a serious LS cluster in North America that didn&#8217;t exhibit this cycle and it was very hard to find examples of big pharma setting up greenfield operations anywhere.  In fact, they have been retrenching in many locations.</p>
<p>So, should investment promotion agencies be actively pursuing this kind of FDI?</p>
<p>That is a very controversial idea.  The concept of NSBI or INB or Innovation PEI working with its LS or IT or manufacturing firms to help them sell to outside interests is one that will get folks riled up.  Again, I think it needs to be looked at.  Ideally, NB firms would become the acquirers  &#8211; there is an engineering firm in Freddy that has been buying up smaller foreign firms &#8211; but even they will likely be swallowed up someday.</p>
<p>The key is to foster an ecosystem where a new round of entrepreneurs step up and the cycle continues.  Bought out senior management can seed new start-ups.  Some highly talented staff prefer smaller firms to the large corporate culture (some but certainly not all).   I am not demonizing big firms &#8211; many will stay and grow here but their ultimately leadership is elsewhere.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Jobs, jobs, jobs: Redux</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5703</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5703#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Jan 2013 12:41:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[My column today in the TJ talked about the potential of wooing NB&#8217;s diaspora back to the province to work and build their careers.  I wrote it before the latest labour market report showing more declines in the province&#8217;s workforce.  I got an email this morning asking for reconciliation. First, when I write that there [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My column today in the TJ talked about the potential of wooing NB&#8217;s diaspora back to the province to work and build their careers.  I wrote it before the latest labour market report showing more declines in the province&#8217;s workforce.  I got an email this morning asking for reconciliation.</p>
<p>First, when I write that there was positive interprovincial migration to Fredericton and Moncton in the past two years &#8211; that doesn&#8217;t include the current year.  In addition, that is not a province-wide statistic.  For NB as a whole interprovincial migration is negative &#8211; and according to the first three quarters of data in 2012 will be negative again.</p>
<p>However, I do maintain that places like Moncton, SJ and Fredericton can attract back the diaspora &#8211; particularly those in the 30s and early 40s &#8211; if there are jobs here for them (or entrepreneurial opportunity).  I am not suggesting the tens of thousands that have left will all come back &#8211; but a small portion might and I talk about several cases in my column.</p>
<p>We need to attract investment into industries with growth potential.  That investment will create good paying jobs and those jobs will be filled by NBers, expats and immigrants.</p>
<p>I think the biggest mistake over the last two years has been our failure to recognize the fundamental weakness in the economy.  I and others have pointed it out but broadly it didn&#8217;t seem to take hold.  You can&#8217;t cut a couple of hundred million out of public spending at the same time your big capital projects are winding up and not expect it to have a negative impact.</p>
<p>2013 will probably continue to be weak &#8211; it&#8217;s hard to say how weak &#8211; but there isn&#8217;t much on the horizon to boost GDP in any significant way.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Words matter:  Learning from shale gas</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5697</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5697#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Dec 2012 12:14:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5697</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You have probably noticed all the interest in shale gas and related developments in British Columbia.  There was concern over a state-owned Malaysian firm offering billions of dollars to buy into a northern BC shale play.  Now Chevron wants in spending a pile on both shares in a shale gas play and in the pipeline [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You have probably noticed all the interest in shale gas and related developments in British Columbia.  There was concern over a state-owned Malaysian firm offering billions of dollars to buy into a northern BC shale play.  Now<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/24/us-chevron-kitimat-idUSBRE8BN0K620121224"> Chevron wants in </a><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/24/us-chevron-kitimat-idUSBRE8BN0K620121224"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>spending a pile on both shares in a shale gas play and in the pipeline infrastructure to distribute the gas.</p>
<p>How many stories have you read lately about companies looking to spend hundreds of millions to help develop New Brunswick&#8217;s shale gas?</p>
<p>Zero.</p>
<p>I could be talking about Arkansas or Pennsylvania or Bakken but BC is more instructive because it is a Canadian province just like New Brunswick.</p>
<p>You could argue, rightly, that NB&#8217;s shale gas development industry is more theoretical than BC where 50% of all new gas wells are from shale and other unconventional sources.</p>
<p>But it is stil interesting to me.  Back in the latter part of the first decade there was a lot of interest in exploratory work in New Brunswick.  Now?  Who knows.  Maybe there is interest but it isn&#8217;t showing up in the media.</p>
<p>Of course the low price of gas and the US glut isn&#8217;t helping but those market dynamics are in place out in BC too.</p>
<p>What bugs me the most is the political response.  Instead of looking at our natural gas as an important and valuable resource much of the political response has been to demonize the resource.  Of course the tepid and very lacklustre response from just about every other stakeholder just reinforced much of this view.  Name me one influential stakeholder that vigorously endorsed shale gas development?  There were some external voices &#8211; Donald Savoie comes to mind- that were very supportive of at least getting through a proper exporation phase for the industry just to see if we can actually extract commercially viable gas &#8211; but not many.</p>
<p>Now companies are dumping billions into BC and nothing into NB.  I hope that will change but&#8230;..</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Imagine New Brunswick as the Learning Province</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5693</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5693#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Dec 2012 12:31:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Two years ago the NB2026 Roundtable identified literacy, education and training – under the rubric of learning – as one of the principal roadblocks to New Brunswick’s development and prosperity and set out to do something about it. A two year citizen’s engagement was started that ended up reaching out to nearly 5,000 New Brunswickers [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two years ago the NB2026 Roundtable identified literacy, education and training – under the rubric of learning – as one of the principal roadblocks to New Brunswick’s development and prosperity and set out to do something about it.</p>
<p>A two year citizen’s engagement was started that ended up reaching out to nearly 5,000 New Brunswickers through a series of public sessions across the province and direct discussions with learning and education related stakeholders.</p>
<p>This engagement culminated with a provincial forum held in November where 70 different learning-related stakeholders got together and crafted a vision for the province. They want to make New Brunswick “the learning province of Canada”.</p>
<p>This is an ambitious vision. According to the International Adult Literacy Skills Survey, more than half of New Brunswick’s adult population can&#8217;t read, write or do math well enough to meet the challenges of everyday life and work. Further, a significant percentage of young people are exiting the education system (either prematurely or with a diploma) without sufficient literacy and numeracy skills.</p>
<p>Some people may be rolling their eyes right now. What makes this initiative any different? New Brunswick’s literacy problem has been well known for decades and successive governments have at least nominally made it a priority.<br />
This initiative is different. The normal way for New Brunswick to tackle collective problems is by citizens complaining and governments promising to do something. This initiative has taught us that literacy is not a ‘government’ problem. Addressing it will be a ‘projet de société’.</p>
<p>At the provincial forum over 60 initiatives were identified involving a range of public sector, private sector and non-governmental organizations across the province.</p>
<p>By Grades 2-3 we can identify with almost 100 percent accuracy which kids will go on to do well in school and which will fall through the cracks. Imagine enlisting an army of retired teachers, nurses and other public servants in every community around the province as tutors and mentors for these ‘at risk’ young people.</p>
<p>Imagine thousands of small businesses around the province committing to a learning agenda in the workplace and putting programs and incentives in place for staff to upgrade their skills.</p>
<p>Imagine thousands of young people engaging with senior citizens to help them learn how to use the Internet and build their 21st century literacy skills.</p>
<p>Imagine provincial and federal governments making a serious commitment to the tens of thousands of New Brunswickers who collect Employment Insurance each year that are stuck at the lowest skills and literacy levels. We spend a huge amount of taxpayer dollars on ‘training’ every year. Imagine if we tied that spending to the learning agenda.</p>
<p>Imagine mayors and municipal councils all across the province vying to win the ‘Learning Community of the Year’ award by taking deliberate steps to promote literacy.</p>
<p>In short, imagine a learning agenda that engages the broadest possible coalition of New Brunswickers from all corners of society. Then, as my father says “you are cooking with gas”.</p>
<p>The learning agenda is being led by Andy Scott, Marie-Paule Thériault and the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development, Jody Carr. It has also been wholeheartedly endorsed by Premier David Alward.<br />
I’m a big fan of Andy Scott. He has tackled some of the most complex public policy issues over the years. Having him at the helm gives the initiative much greater chance of success.  Minister Carr has a lot on his plate these days. He looks a little frazzled but he has made this a key priority for him and his department. It will be crucial to align the enormous resources of government with the initiatives developed through the learning agenda.<br />
The learning agenda is one of those initiatives that could transform the province. Or it could go down in flames. For the sake of our future, I hope it takes off.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Now you are cooking with gas</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5690</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5690#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Dec 2012 13:08:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5690</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Long before New Brunswickers were using natural gas in their homes (at least this time around &#8211; gas was used 100 years ago in Moncton) my father used to intone &#8220;now you are cooking with gas&#8221; when someone was getting traction on an issue.  He also used to use his own version of Miramichi colloquialisms [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Long before New Brunswickers were using natural gas in their homes (at least this time around &#8211; gas was used 100 years ago in Moncton) my father used to intone &#8220;now you are cooking with gas&#8221; when someone was getting traction on an issue.  He also used to use his own version of Miramichi colloquialisms such as &#8220;you are crazier than ol&#8217; hardwood ever dared to be&#8221; or &#8220;you have more xx than you can shake a stick at&#8221;. I never really understood any of them.</p>
<p>Now I understand the phrase &#8220;cooking with gas&#8221; as I have seen the merits of a gas-fired cooking stove.  For most people, gas stoves are far superior than electric stoves.</p>
<p>I have written about this before but I think it remains a key part of the debate in New Brunswick.   In much of Canada and the United States natural gas is widely used for heating and cooking in the home.  In some jurisdictions 50 percent or more of households have natural gas coming into their homes.</p>
<p>I think this lack of natural gas usage in New Brunswick is part of the reason why people are &#8216;scared&#8217; of shale gas and why the side promoting the development of the industry has moved the argument into the usage camp. They are now talking about us using our natural gas in our homes and businesses rather than some abstract economic argument.</p>
<p>This is a good angle as it looks like gas from offshore Nova Scotia will dry up by around 2017 and gas via LNG into Saint John is way too expensive.  We could go from a jurisdiction with ample, diverse supplies of natural gas (circa 2010) to an orphaned market (circa 2017) where gas has to be piped in from the southern U.S. or western Canada with substantial tolls.</p>
<p>For most New Brunswickers, I would think, it might seem a little strange to be importing natural gas that was extracted using hydraulic fracturing thousands of miles away when we have it right under our feet.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The charming community of Clare, NS</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5686</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5686#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Dec 2012 16:59:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I have the opportunity to work with Clare on a new economic development effort.  It&#8217;s a very interesting community &#8211; a number of vibrant industries and a dynamic cultural and linguistic context.  But it is suffering from the challenges facing rural communities across Atlantic Canada (and much of the rest of Canada too). Urbanization in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have the opportunity to work with Clare on a new economic development effort.  It&#8217;s a very interesting community &#8211; a number of vibrant industries and a dynamic cultural and linguistic context.  But it is suffering from the challenges facing rural communities across Atlantic Canada (and much of the rest of Canada too).</p>
<p>Urbanization in Atlantic Canada is a reality and necessary.    I have argued this and continue to belief that much of the region&#8217;s economic malaise can be traced to a lack of urbanity here.  However that urban growth doesn&#8217;t mean the end of rural Atlantic Canada.  There are many industries that are rurally-based and as I have found out &#8211; not everyone wants to live in an urban setting.</p>
<p>At the core, however; rural communities need to have a solid economic foundation.  It&#8217;s not about rapid population growth but it is about alignment between the labour market, the local economy and the scope and scale of expected public services.  When those three are out of alignment it can lead to a lot of problems.</p>
<p>Some of my urban advocate colleagues don&#8217;t have a lot of interest in rural development but I see communities such as Clare and see something worth saving &#8211; something that local stakeholders will fight for.  It&#8217;s not about hanging on to the past.  The Clare of 2040 will be a lot different than now &#8211; probably a lot more immigrants for one &#8211; but it should be able to retain the charm and cultural attributes that people really appreciate.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Shale gas &#8211; keeping the NIMBYs happy</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5682</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5682#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Dec 2012 13:21:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[A good article in The Economist this week discusses the development of shale gas in Britain.   There are a few points that are worth summarizing: The Chancellor is looking at tax incentives to woo shale gas firms to Britain because of the lack of an established supply chain and infrastructure.   NB seems to be far [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A<a href="http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21567976-george-osborne-loves-shale-gas-he-needs-court-it-better-shale-and-hearty-welcome"> good article </a><a href="http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21567976-george-osborne-loves-shale-gas-he-needs-court-it-better-shale-and-hearty-welcome"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>in The Economist this week discusses the development of shale gas in Britain.   There are a few points that are worth summarizing:</p>
<p>The Chancellor is looking at tax incentives to woo shale gas firms to Britain because of the lack of an established supply chain and infrastructure.   NB seems to be far from any kind of &#8216;wooing&#8217; these days.  In fact, the idea of government offering tax breaks and aggressively promoting NB as a location for shale gas development is not even on anyone&#8217;s table.</p>
<p>Another interesting point is the article recommends the government agree to turn back a portion of royalties to local communities (like NB is proposing).  This addresses the problem of the Crown owning the minerals and not the landowner in the US.</p>
<p>Probably the most interesting point in the article:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Techniques that cut drilling times, boost the amount of gas that can be recovered and enable many wells to be sunk from one location all lessen the environmental impact. Once built, a well consists of a few pipes sticking out of the ground. So keeping operations out of sight of the NIMBYs is feasible.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>This is one of the great ironies in the shale gas debate in New Brunswick.  It&#8217;s opponents have talked about the industry turning NB into an industrial wasteland and ruining other industries such as tourism, forestry and agriculture.  They use terms like &#8216;burned out&#8217; landscape and insinuate that the shale gas industry would turn pristine land into wasteland.</p>
<p>I realize this is hyperbole but I still find it interesting as the evidence is as indicates in The Economist article that shale gas is far less impacting on the physical landscape because you can bore 12-20 wells or more from one wellhead (unlike conventional gas and oil which requires one wellhead for each well).</p>
<p>If you search Youtube for shale gas videos you get a lot of these burned out wasteland scenes but it looks like they are mostly using pictures of the land while the well is being drilled.  Of course, there will be piles of dirt and industrial equipment on site while the wells are being drilled but it sure looks like to me that from a visual pollution perspective shale gas is far less impacting than wind turbines as one example.</p>
<p>Anyway the debate on this isn&#8217;t going away soon.  I continue to maintain that shale gas investment is likely going to steer towards jurisdictions that are supportive of development &#8211; within a rigorous environmental framework which protects both the public and the industry &#8211; rather than those jursidictions where 3 of the main four parties are calling for a moratorium and the main party is fragile on the issue.  Would you invest your money?</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Consequential leadership in inconsequential times</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5679</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5679#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Dec 2012 13:09:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[As I have written in the past, I don’t believe we are currently living in overly consequential times. We are not facing the massive economic upheaval of the 1930s nor are we facing world wars or massive poverty. In truth even the 1960s and 1970s were more consequential as we grappled with equal opportunity and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As I have written in the past, I don’t believe we are currently living in overly consequential times. We are not facing the massive economic upheaval of the 1930s nor are we facing world wars or massive poverty. In truth even the 1960s and 1970s were more consequential as we grappled with equal opportunity and the expansion of our welfare state.</p>
<p>These days the largest public policy debates in New Brunswick are not particularly monumental. Some people are outraged about the potential environmental risk of water contamination from shale gas development. All I can say is these folks would have been apoplectic if they had lived through the industrial development during the early to middle part of the last Century.</p>
<p>Others are annoyed that they might end up having to drive a couple of hours in their car to access specialized health care. They should have a talk with anyone over the age of 80 about health care (or the lack of it) back in the 1940s and 1950s.</p>
<p>And there are those who continue to affirm they are “entitled to their entitlements” as David Dingwall, the former federal Cabinet minister, once famously intoned. The social safety net has never been stronger than it is today.</p>
<p>Even the public austerity debate now is tame compared to the McKenna years in the early to mid-1990s when public spending growth was held to less than one percent per year for six straight budgets.</p>
<p>But it strikes me that the decisions taken during inconsequential times such as these can end up fostering the stable economic, social and political structures that help us avoid the consequential moments that are so gut-wrenching for society. For example, efforts to avoid war are an historical footnote compared to the coverage of magnanimous acts during times of war. But surely efforts to avoid war are even more important.</p>
<p>The same can be said for public governance in relatively inconsequential times. Wise and thoughtful public policy now will avoid potentially ‘consequential’ times in the future. This applies even in a small and marginal place such as New Brunswick because it is not small and not marginal to the people that live here.</p>
<p>Consequential leadership in 2012 requires a much broader dialogue with citizens. When the credit rating agencies are about to drop your bond rating to junk status it is relatively easy to get folks’ attention. When you have a flashpoint economic issue such as a major plant closure, it is easy to get people to start thinking about the economy.</p>
<p>But when you are in a slow burn – small, incremental changes every year – it becomes harder and harder to get the buy in and support from the public to take bold new policy directions.</p>
<p>There are those who think New Brunswick is about to collapse. They see a convergence of demographic, economic and fiscal storms combined with a broad cynicism across society and suggest government will not be able to cope. They envisage a world of tax increases and drastic public service cuts extending over the next decade.</p>
<p>I am not that pessimistic. We live in Canada and as long as the resources-rich provinces continue to generate surplus tax revenues, the federal government has an obligation to ensure that places like New Brunswick at least stumble along.</p>
<p>But consequential leadership eschews “just stumbling along”. It envisions a New Brunswick that is a magnet for investment, ideas and talent. This type of leadership views the current challenges as an opportunity to garner public support to move in a bold new direction.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Fostering health care start-ups</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5677</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5677#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Dec 2012 13:07:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I think it is safe to say New Brunswick’s information and communications technology (ICT) sector is more entrepreneurial than most other sectors of the economy. Young entrepreneurs finding innovative ways to tease out better business intelligence from social networks or those building neat new Web-based consumer applications get lots of coverage and, increasingly, funding. But [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think it is safe to say New Brunswick’s information and communications technology (ICT) sector is more entrepreneurial than most other sectors of the economy. Young entrepreneurs finding innovative ways to tease out better business intelligence from social networks or those building neat new Web-based consumer applications get lots of coverage and, increasingly, funding.</p>
<p>But there are other sectors of the economy that hold untapped potential for entrepreneurial activity in New Brunswick. Across the United States, the health care sector is generating almost as much buzz as the ICT sector. According to a recent article in The Economist, there have been at least four new incubators founded in the last two years to nurture health care start-ups.</p>
<p>Here I am specifically talking about health care start-ups that are founded on exportable products or services. New Brunswick has more than its share of entrepreneurs serving local markets &#8211; dentists, optometrists, private physiotherapy clinics and, yes, even a private MRI clinic. These latter entrepreneurs are an important part of our economy but they will not be the drivers of economic growth.</p>
<p>Defined this way, there are very few health care start-ups in New Brunswick. Sackville-based Soricimed a firm that is developing tools to diagnose cancer, is an exception. At the technology and services end of the market there are very few firms based here that are exporting to national or international markets.</p>
<p>There are virtually no health care start-ups in New Brunswick because there are few pathways for new health care entrepreneurs to emerge.<br />
University-based research is one of the top pathways for new health care start-ups.</p>
<p>As an example, the University of New Brunswick’s Institute of Biomedical Engineering is well-known for its pioneering work in the area of artificial limbs and the Stan Cassidy Centre For Rehabilitation is working with its engineers on related research. How come there aren’t four or five new start-ups churning out of that activity every year?</p>
<p>The Economist article discusses one of the most interesting health care start-up incubators set up by athenahealth. The company hosts an annual “More Disruption Please” conference where start-ups gather to pitch their ideas and the winning entrepreneurs get to offer their products to the 35,000 doctors in athena’s network.</p>
<p>Horizon Health Network is made up of 12 hospitals and serves communities across New Brunswick, northern Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. Horizon employs over a thousand physicians and 13,000 total staff. Sounds like an ideal breeding ground for potential health care start-ups. How do we make it happen?</p>
<p>New Brunswick is also blessed to have some of the biggest players in the health insurance sector (i.e. Medavie Blue Cross) and the pharmaceuticals distribution business (McKesson). How do we convince these firms to follow the lead of athenahealth and support the incubation of new health care start-ups that align with their business models?</p>
<p>One weakness is the size of the New Brunswick market. The way to solve this is simple. Whatever incubation approach we take should be opened up to entrepreneurs nationally and even internationally. If you have a good idea in the health care space, pitch it to the international New Brunswick health care incubator.</p>
<p>Last year I completed a study that looked at the most successful export-intensive health care clusters across North America. It became crystal clear to me that health care clusters grow through entrepreneurial activity. New start-ups emerge and access early stage financing. They then grow to a size that makes them interesting to the larger global players and get gobbled up. The new capital from the acquisitions is then re-invested in even more entrepreneurial activity and the cycle continues.</p>
<p>If we want our share of this rapidly growing opportunity, we need to find out how to get the entrepreneurial juices flowing.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>NY Times and corporate welfare</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5673</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5673#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Dec 2012 21:31:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[It must be fun to be an editor at the NY Times.   Obama&#8217;s auto bailout was a grand, principled effort that saved an industry.  State and local handouts to the auto industry is the terrible corporate welfare.  It is true that Obama&#8217;s auto bailout could have been worse for the U.S. taxpayer but there is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It must be fun to be an editor at the NY Times.   Obama&#8217;s auto bailout was a grand, principled effort that saved an industry.  State and local handouts to the auto industry is the terrible corporate welfare.  It is true that Obama&#8217;s auto bailout could have been worse for the U.S. taxpayer but there is a strange kind of duplicity in the reporting.</p>
<p>I was asked to comment on the broad investigation that the NY Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/us/how-local-taxpayers-bankroll-corporations.html?hp&amp;_r=1&amp;">has done on corporate welfare</a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/us/how-local-taxpayers-bankroll-corporations.html?hp&amp;_r=1&amp;"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> with is a theme they revisit every couple of years.</p>
<p>There are a few points to make here.</p>
<p>One, as I have said every time this issue comes up I would be fully supportive of a North American wide ban on &#8216;incentives&#8217; however that would end up being defined.   However, I think it would be enomously challenging to get agreement and I also believe it &#8216;could&#8217; lead to an even more pernicious race to the bottom.   The logic of this is simple.  If all states, provinces and local governments agreed to no more tax abatements or grants, they would just move to reducing tax rates for all in an effort to be more competitive.  That would end up with even less revenue coming in the door.</p>
<p>It is also true that it &#8216;could&#8217; lead to governments spending more on what really matters to foster positive economic development such as infrastructure, talent development, immigration, etc.</p>
<p>In my opinion, places like New Brunswick would be better off in a zero incentives world.  If you look closely at the data, you will see that the larger urban centres tend to give out the largest incentives.  This applies in Canada as well as long as you expand the range of &#8216;incentives&#8217; to include support for the life sciences sector (Toronto), aerospace (Montreal) and video game development (Vancouver).  Tax breaks to incentivize oil sands development have been worth billions but only indirectly to the urban areas in Alberta.</p>
<p>In the end, I cannot advocate this region unilaterally disarming from the incentive wars.    If we can show a clear ROI from a public investment and if the project is being wooed by other jurisdictions offering the gravy train &#8211; I don&#8217;t think we have the luxury to walk away.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll make a final point.  The NY Times sets the standard for &#8216;word smithing&#8217; in the US but I think they fall prey to using inappropriate language in this instance.</p>
<p>I am not sure how &#8216;property tax abatements&#8217; can be considered a &#8216;grant&#8217;.  Again my knowledge of the English language may not be up to snuff but in my understanding a &#8216;grant&#8217; in a cash payment of some kind while a foregone tax is a foregone tax.    You wouldn&#8217;t say General Motors got a &#8216;grant&#8217; if Michigan reduced its corporate property tax rate to zero but the benefit to GM would be exactly the same.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Serving exotic markets: A slippery business?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5669</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5669#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Dec 2012 14:27:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There is an excellent article in The Economist this week about Maine and the rapid increase in the export of baby eels &#8211; earning as much as $5,700/kilo.   Think about that the next time you are haggling about 50 cents per kilo on the price of lobsters. I checked the numbers and New Brunswick eel [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is an<a href="http://economist.com/news/united-states/21567394-transparent-gold"> excellent article</a><a href="http://economist.com/news/united-states/21567394-transparent-gold"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> in The Economist this week about Maine and the rapid increase in the export of baby eels &#8211; earning as much as $5,700/kilo.   Think about that the next time you are haggling about 50 cents per kilo on the price of lobsters.</p>
<p>I checked the numbers and New Brunswick eel exports are on the rise but at a much more restrained level rising from $3.1 millioni in 2007 to $15 million in 2011.  Still, using standard multipliers for the sector this means more than 100  FTE jobs/year in the province &#8211; not an amount to snub your nose at.</p>
<p>The reality is that Asian, Eastern European and other country tastes for what we would consider exotic are considerable and rising disposible income is creating vast new markets.  The mink industry in Nova Scotia is now a $200 million business per year &#8211; in a rural area that is benefiting from the boom.</p>
<p>In an age of increasing global competition it is important to find your niches.  Most people chafe at the idea of mink farming but it is supporting a large wedge of the economy in the Digby-Yarmouth region.  And they have been working with the province to address the concerns over the waste which will now be converted into energy to fuel a local public building.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t want to get into a debate about seals or mink or even eels but I remain uncomfortable that we are not as deliberate as we should about agriculture/aquaculture/fishing and carving out niche markets.  Are there specific products that are in rapidly growing demand that grow particularly well in our climate and with our soil?</p>
<p>As I discovered about the mining sector, there is very little alignment with folks in economic development who prefer the sexier ICT, aerospace, etc.  But natural resources &#8211; both renewable and non-renewable  should be part of the mix.  We have a very large portion of our workforce that is at a skills and literacy level that rules them out for most high end knowledge-based jobs.  Over time we need to address this (more about this coming in my TJ column this week) but if we ignore development now in industries where these foks are best able to contribute we hurt them and the economy.</p>
<p><em>PS &#8211; Did this rapid rise in eel exports get covered in the media?  I didn&#8217;t see it but it would be &#8211; I think &#8211; a good story.</em></p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/eels.jpg" alt="" width="494" height="434" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Showing our age by how we spend</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5663</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Nov 2012 12:24:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[From my recent TJ column on changing consumer spending habits in New Brunswick Statistics Canada released a broad set of data this week on household expenditures. The recent trends in spending reveal some interesting facts about New Brunswick consumer spending habits. Out of pocket health care costs are an increasing burden on New Brunswick households. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>From my recent TJ column on changing consumer spending habits in New Brunswick</em></p>
<p>Statistics Canada released a broad set of data this week on household expenditures. The recent trends in spending reveal some interesting facts about New Brunswick consumer spending habits.</p>
<p>Out of pocket health care costs are an increasing burden on New Brunswick households. We now spend over $930 million out-of-pocket on health care or over $1,200 per person. New Brunswickers spend nearly 16 percent more than the average Canadian on pharmaceuticals and 27 percent more on health insurance. On a per capita basis, the amount we spend on out-patient services has risen by 36 percent well above the 23 percent growth rate nationally. Overall health expenditures are rising twice as fast as overall household expenditures.</p>
<p>There are fewer children toddling around the average household these days so we are pouring our money into pets. In 2011 we spent $93 million on pet food up 38 percent in just five years and the money spent for veterinary services rose by 26 percent.  By contrast, per capita household spending on education rose by nine percent while increasing 21 percent across Canada. The average Canadian now spends 39 present more on education than we do.</p>
<p>New Brunswickers love our trucks, vans and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). We spent $552 million on them in 2011 up a whopping 57 percent from 2007 to 2011. New Brunswickers now spend well above the national average on trucks and SUVs. By contrast, household spending on new passenger cars dropped by 12 percent over the five year period. We now spend 54 percent more on trucks and SUVs than we do on cars.</p>
<p>Despite what you might have heard the total amount New Brunswickers spend on automobile insurance dropped by eight percent between 2007 and 2011 despite the substantial increase in household spending on trucks and SUVs. On a per capita basis, New Brunswickers spend 11 percent less on auto insurance than other Canadians.</p>
<p>We are still spending a lot on tobacco. In 2011, New Brunswickers spent an estimated $530 million on tobacco up 25 percent from five years ago (nationally the increase was only 10 percent). The amount spent on alcoholic beverages in New Brunswick increased by nine percent (on a per capita basis) compared to six percent across the country. Spending on games of chance (gambling) rose by 15 percent between 2007 and 2011 while declining by one percent across the country.</p>
<p>One of the most interesting trends relates to New Brunswick households and debt. The total amount we spend on ‘implicit loan changes’ dropped by 13 percent over the five years compared to an 11 percent increase across the country. In another release, Statistics Canada reported that New Brunswick’s household debt ratio is now second lowest among the 10 provinces in Canada.</p>
<p>New Brunswickers travel more in Canada than other Canadians. We spend twice as much travelling within Canada than the average Canadian but 30 percent less travelling outside Canada.</p>
<p>It’s hard to say for sure what is driving these changes in spending habits but it looks like we are starting to show our age. New Brunswick is the second oldest province in Canada by median age and it makes senses that our out-of-pocket health care costs are increasing rapidly, spending on pets is way up and we are trying to reduce our overall debt. The increase in travel within Canada is likely a sign that many of us are leaving the province to visit our children.</p>
<p>Hopefully a decade from now we will look at this data and see more spending on children relative to pets. Kids grow up into tax-paying adults. Pets do not.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Thanks, Robert.  What&#8217;s next?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5660</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5660#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Nov 2012 10:45:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I see that Robert Irving&#8217;s new Moncton head office was officially opened last week. I wonder how many Greater Monctonians realize how much investment and how many jobs have been created in Dieppe by those operations in the past 15 years or so &#8211; Midland Transport, Cavendish Farms, Cavendish Agri Services, Cavendish Produce, Irving Tissue [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see that Robert Irving&#8217;s new Moncton head office was officially opened last week.</p>
<p>I wonder how many Greater Monctonians realize how much investment and how many jobs have been created in Dieppe by those operations in the past 15 years or so &#8211; Midland Transport, Cavendish Farms, Cavendish Agri Services, Cavendish Produce, Irving Tissue and Irving Personal Care.</p>
<p>It has been very impressive.   Greater Monctonians should be thankful.</p>
<p>Now, what&#8217;s next?</p>
<p>We need the next round of Robert Irving-style investments over the next 15-20 years.    All around New Brunswick, we need ambitious entrepreneurs to carve out profitable niches in tech firms, manufacturing, warehousing, biotech, whatever &#8211; and take the plunge.</p>
<p>I spend a lot of time talking about external business investment but we can&#8217;t forget the critical value of folks like Robert Irving who also owns the Moncton Wildcats.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Optimism v. Pessimism &#8211; Round One</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5656</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5656#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Nov 2012 11:52:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[“It&#8217;s snowing still,&#8221; said Eeyore gloomily. &#8220;So it is.&#8221; &#8220;And freezing.&#8221; &#8220;Is it?&#8221; &#8220;Yes,&#8221; said Eeyore. &#8220;However,&#8221; he said, brightening up a little, &#8220;we haven&#8217;t had an earthquake lately.” ― A. A. Milne &#160; A lot of folks these days are pushing back against all the pessimists suggesting that doom and gloom doesn&#8217;t help and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>“It&#8217;s snowing still,&#8221; said Eeyore gloomily.</em><br />
<em> &#8220;So it is.&#8221;</em><br />
<em> &#8220;And freezing.&#8221;</em><br />
<em> &#8220;Is it?&#8221;</em><br />
<em> &#8220;Yes,&#8221; said Eeyore. &#8220;However,&#8221; he said, brightening up a little, &#8220;we haven&#8217;t had an earthquake lately.”</em><br />
― A. A. Milne</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>A lot of folks these days are pushing back against all the pessimists suggesting that doom and gloom doesn&#8217;t help and we should be more like Pollyanna.  As I have written many times (and mentioned again this week on the radio) it is both important to convey the extent of our challenges &#8211; short and longer term &#8211; and that these challenges are relatively simple to fix.  We are not Greece.  We do not have a massive problem.  But that doesn&#8217;t mean we shouldn&#8217;t discuss our challenges.  We have a short term fiscal crisis that is pushing up unemployment and holding down taxes.  We have a medium term forecast that doesn&#8217;t show much new private sector investment on the horizon and we have a longer term demographic challenge.</p>
<p>This latter issue is the one that has the potential to be the biggest barrier to growth.  In 1971 NB had 333,000 young people under the age of 24.  It was this wave of young people that we needed to find jobs and economic activity to support.  In 2012, there are 206,000 people under the age of 24.  In 40 years, our young population has dropped from 52% of the population to 27% of the population.   I&#8217;m not a sociologist but it seems intuitive that a population that is predominately young (75% of the population in 1971 was under the age of 44) will collectively have a different perspective than one that is older (the median age in 1971 was 23 &#8211; it is now 43.4).</p>
<p>This guy telling the journalist that he had recently retired and &#8220;just wanted to be left alone&#8221; in response to why he was protesting against natural gas development keeps ring in my ears.</p>
<p>The problem is that older New Brunswickers should be just as interested in development as young New Brunswickers.  The youth will leave if there is no opportunity.  It is harder for older people to leave if we have to dramatically decrease the scope and scale of public services around the province.</p>
<p>We can&#8217;t just turn away from this and hope that everything will come out right in the end.  This is Canada and New Brunswick will never fall off a cliff &#8211; as long as Alberta keeps churning out the oil and gas &#8211; but we could be in for some very rocky times ahead.</p>
<p>Saskatchewan and Newfoundland are two examples of jursidictions that have completely turned things around &#8211; just like we require in New Brunswick.  Saskatchewan in the mid 1990s looked an awful lot like New Brunswick does now.  Their economic renaissance was predominately natural resource-based.  We don&#8217;t have the level of resources compared to Saskatchewan (although I think there is much more potential there than some think) so we need a mix of resource and knowledge-based development.</p>
<p>If the price of getting higher public consciousness about our challenges in the public domain is being branded a pessimist &#8211; I&#8217;ll wear the tee-shirt.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/future.jpg" alt="" width="584" height="470" /></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Now, hug a bureaucrat</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5645</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5645#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Nov 2012 12:30:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[I know this is a shameless play on The Economist cover story from last week but nevertheless…. I spend a lot of time travelling around New Brunswick and the Maritime Provinces and it seems to me the reputation of the public service has been slipping. I attend a lot of meetings and have many conversations [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I know this is a shameless play on The Economist cover story from last week but nevertheless….</em></p>
<p>I spend a lot of time travelling around New Brunswick and the Maritime Provinces and it seems to me the reputation of the public service has been slipping. I attend a lot of meetings and have many conversations about the public sector and more often than not these conversations divert into complaining sessions about the inability of bureaucrats to get things done.</p>
<p>I think it is time to rebuild the brand of the public service. I see no practical value in wholesale criticism of the public sector. A strong and successful public service has been fundamental to our advancement as a society over the past 100 years – nationally and within New Brunswick.</p>
<p>We have dramatically reduced poverty in this province and we have developed a high quality public health care system. We have one of the best highway transportation infrastructures for a jurisdiction our size in North America. We have significantly reduced poverty and brought about a made in New Brunswick version of equal opportunity.</p>
<p>All of these achievements were conceived and implemented by a motivated and professional public service.</p>
<p>If you talk to retired public services such as Don Dennison, they will tell you they didn’t join the public service for the paycheque or to have a comfy job. They joined the public service to make a difference. It was more of a calling than a job.</p>
<p>Most of New Brunswick’s recently retired senior public sector leadership started in government during the heady days of Louis J. Robichaud who brought in his own version of the Great Society with a bilingual twist. They saw how the public service could be a powerful force for change and make important things happen.</p>
<p>Changing the conversation doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have spirited debates about the size and scope of the public sector. It doesn’t mean we should gloss over when certain segments of the public service are not performing up to the standards we expect.</p>
<p>But the whole ‘big’ versus ‘small’ government shouldn’t be held hostage to the right wing view that government can’t do anything right.</p>
<p>Dragging down the brand of the public service in New Brunswick will have pernicious effects and could end up exacerbating some of the underlying reasons why people get frustrated in the first place.</p>
<p>New Brunswick is at an inflection point. This is no time for a demoralized public service.</p>
<p>We need empowered and engaged public servants who are encouraged to step up to the plate. How do we exploit our natural resources in an environmentally sustainable way? How do we attract investment and high powered talent into our knowledge-based sectors when the competition is Toronto, New York, Sao Paulo and Berlin? How do we attract, build and retain the next generation of human capital? How do we ensure our core public services – the ones we now take for granted – can be maintained in a fiscally sustainable way?</p>
<p>Let’s refrain from the broad brush view that the public sector is ineffective. Let’s encourage our best and brightest young people to take a second look at the public sector.</p>
<p>The next time you see a bureaucrat, give them a hug. Whether you like it or not, your destiny and the destiny of your community and province will be shaped in large part by what they do or don’t do over the next decade.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Embracing urbanism</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5642</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2012 11:43:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Here is my recent column in the TJ on urbanism.  I am particularly interested in this idea of an urban activist.  You may be surprised about this as I chafe at some of the activist movements in New Brunswick.  I don&#8217;t agree with people who want to shut down natural resources development but I admire [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Here is my recent column in the TJ on urbanism.  I am particularly interested in this idea of an urban activist.  You may be surprised about this as I chafe at some of the activist movements in New Brunswick.  I don&#8217;t agree with people who want to shut down natural resources development but I admire the activist spirit.  In urban areas, the activist fights for thier neighbourhood &#8211; not just petitioning government &#8211; they actually get out there and do things to improve the lot of their neighbourhood.  We need far more of that in New Brunswick.  It&#8217;s too easy to relegate everything as a &#8216;governmentt problem&#8217;.    If there is garbage in the streets, go pick it up.  If you have shabby buildings in your neighbourhood, go buy a bucket of paint and slosh on a coat &#8211; a new coat of paint will do wonders to perk up a city street.  If you have crime challenges, organize a neighbourhood watch.  This is what makes livable urban neighbourhoods.  And this is what an increasing number of people want.  They are eschewing surburbia but they want livable urban neighbourhoods.  </em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In case you didn’t notice, New Brunswick is a very rural place by North American standards. In addition to the fact that nearly half of us live in rural areas, we don’t have a single, large urban centre like just about every other province or state across Canada and the United States.</p>
<p>I have written many times about the negative effects of not having a dominant urban centre. We end up with more airports, hospital, schools, etc. per 100,000 population around the province but none with the critical mass for specialization. We also end up with a lack of specialization in a wide range of business and personal services forcing this economic activity to leave the province.</p>
<p>We need to start taking our cities and their economic potential more seriously. The province needs urban development strategy and our cities to start acting like more than just big towns. If New Brunswick is to thrive in the 21st Century, its cities will need to lead the way.</p>
<p>I was thinking about this recently as I was reading a new report published by the BMW Guggenheim Lab entitled 100 Urban Trends.</p>
<p>The urban trends covered in the report run the gamut from ‘active transportation’ to ‘urban ugliness’ and I would argue that most are as relevant in mid-sized, up-and-coming urban areas such as Saint John or Moncton as in larger centres such as Berlin or Miami.</p>
<p>The Activist Citizen is one of the most important of these trends. These activists are committed to their city and their neighbourhoods and do not rely “on institutions or the government to fix things”. We need more of these activist citizens in our cities. If we want dynamic, safe and comfortable urban neighbourhoods we want citizens to take initiative and drive local change.</p>
<p>Number 16 on the list, Cities as Idea Generators, is another urban trend that should resonate in New Brunswick. We should be deliberate and develop spaces in the urban core for people to gather, interact and create. We need artist studios, hackerspaces and entrepreneurial incubators embedded in the urban neighbourhoods where talented professionals live and work.</p>
<p>Intergenerational Interaction, number 53, is one we should foster in our cities. New Brunswick’s urban areas have a higher percentage of people over the age of 55 compared than just about everywhere else in Canada. The Boomers should not ignore the young nor should the young alienate their older peers. Urban neighbourhoods provide an excellent space for intergenerational sharing of ideas and for collaboration.<br />
Urban microhistories, urban trend number 95 in the report, are individual and collective stories that happen in neighbourhoods but go unnoticed by the mass media. They can be a powerful binding agent for neighbourhoods and for bringing people together. Social media is an excellent platform for sharing these stories.</p>
<p>In many ways we are still locked in an old battle that pits urban versus rural areas around New Brunswick. In urban centres, it is not unusual to hear people grumble about all the focus on rural parts of the province. In rural areas, the fact that cities get all the attention is a common refrain.</p>
<p>We need to get beyond this historical divide. We need cities that are magnets for talent, ideas and capital. We need to develop our rural regions around core strengths in natural resources, tourism and appropriate rural services.<br />
If we want to grow New Brunswick and foster a sustainable economic foundation, we will need to accelerate economic growth in our urban centres. Embracing urbanism will be key to that objective.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Want to know why wholesale sector GDP is dropping?  Ask.</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5639</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5639#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Nov 2012 13:12:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[An economic developer sent me an email yesterday suggesting that the negative feedback from ICT and engineering firms to the attraction of IBM and a big engineering outfit was proof we shouldn&#8217;t engage local private sector leaders in economic development.  He suggested they will &#8220;always look out for number one&#8221; and fight attempts to grow [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An economic developer sent me an email yesterday suggesting that the negative feedback from ICT and engineering firms to the attraction of IBM and a big engineering outfit was proof we shouldn&#8217;t engage local private sector leaders in economic development.  He suggested they will &#8220;always look out for number one&#8221; and fight attempts to grow the industry by anything other than expanding their business opportunities.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t agree with this conclusion.  I would like to think that these industry leaders should be engaged in an approach to grow their industry that includes a mix of export development, investment attraction, workforce and infrastructure development.  Excluding these leaders from the process of developing strategy for their sectors is a recipe for this kind of dissonance.</p>
<p>If Halifax wants to grow an engineering cluster with expertise in onshore and offshore oil and gas &#8211; that is a laudable objective &#8211; particularly with the emerging potential of onshore gas development.  However, this should be done with industry leaders and a clear understanding that we want to grow the cluster  &#8211; including attracting high quality firms from outside when it makes sense.  I have to believe if the other legs of the table are in place, the local industry will be supportive.</p>
<p>What does this have to do with the wholeslae industry in New Brunswick?</p>
<p>Nothing, except to transition to my point today.</p>
<p>Another economic developer wanted to know why wholesale trade GDP has dropped markedly in the past few years in New Brunswick (wholesale trade is in the middle between the retail shops and the manufacturers of goods).</p>
<p>My answer to him?</p>
<p>Ask them.</p>
<p>Novel idea, to be sure, but maybe one of the 600 economic developers in New Brunswick should reach out and ask the top 10 wholesale firms in New Brunswick why the sector is shedding GDP and jobs.</p>
<p>Maybe it would be a good time to convene these sector leaders and ask them how to regain the lost ground in this sector.</p>
<p>Imagine that.  How many economic developers around New Brunswick care about the wholesale trade sector?</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Engineering economic growth: Halifax edition</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5634</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5634#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Nov 2012 11:37:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5634</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Of the dozen or so Tweets/emails I have seen regarding the engineering firm that is setting up 400 jobs in Halifax, most of them I either disagree with or have a slightly more nuanced view.  This is one of those cases where many folks who share most of my views disagree with me.  So, let&#8217;s agree [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Of the dozen or so Tweets/emails I have seen regarding the engineering firm that is setting up 400 jobs in Halifax, most of them I either disagree with or have a slightly more nuanced view.  This is one of those cases where many folks who share most of my views disagree with me.  So, let&#8217;s agree to disagree agreeably.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s what the themes are:</p>
<p><em>1. &#8220;Using payroll rebates as a job creation tool in a field that is already short on talent makes no sense whatsoever.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>If we only focused on sectors where there is a labour surplus, we would take away 95% of the opportunities.  In addition, most of the labour surpluses in the Maritimes are at the low end of the wage scale.  If a sector is &#8216;short on talent&#8217; we need to know why and take rigorous steps to rectify it.  If we stopped focusing on highly skilled sector development because of a tight labour market, it would be a sad day indeed.    We certainly shouldn&#8217;t be focusing on shipbuilding in Halifax &#8211; there is a shortage of skilled workers in that area too.  Maybe we should be looking at immigration as one way to fill the talent shortage.  This firm will not be hiring 400 people tomorrow.  Put a recruitment strategy in place now.</p>
<p><em>2. We shouldn&#8217;t give payroll rates to &#8216;one&#8217; engineering firm and not the &#8216;other&#8217;.</em></p>
<p>This too is a strangely recurring theme &#8211; even among people that are very knowledgeable about economic development.  The firm setting up in Halifax will be exporting its services to Western Canada.  That is not the same at all as incentivizing local competition.    If you have five engineering firms in a local market and you give one an &#8216;incentive&#8217; you have unlevelled the playing field.  If a firm comes in and is totally exporting services &#8211; that has no impact on the local market (except on the aforementioned labour pool).   Just about every engineering firm in the Maritimes that has taken on international work or R&amp;D projects (not competiting in the local market) has received some form of government assistance.</p>
<p><em>3. $11.4 million is an outrageous amount of incentive.</em></p>
<p>Maybe,but that&#8217;s a subjective call.  These types of incentives usually run around 3-4% of payroll &#8211; or a fraction of the +/- 20% effective tax rate on that payroll (income, HST, etc.).   The rate may be higher because these are higher end jobs &#8211; I don&#8217;t know the specifics.  Ultimately, many people find these types of incentives offensive.  That&#8217;s a perfectly reasonable position but as I have stated many times before just about every single province and state across North America offers these types of incentives.  Some use tax incentives (a rebate on your taxes owed) which is &#8211; financially the same thing as a payroll rebate &#8211; where money is only paid out after the payroll (i.e. the taxes on that payroll) are paid.  Other jurisdictions use royalty breaks/rebates &#8211; which are financially the same as a payroll rebate &#8211; you only get them after you generate the revenue.  Others use special energy rates (similar to payroll rebates) and other types of incentives.  Increasingly jurisdictions are using unfront loans &#8211; this has always been the case in Atlantic Canada but many other jurisdictions are finding themselves short of growth capital for SMEs and are putting public financing models in place.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the end, I implore you not to take a kind of NIMBYism to economic development.  I&#8217;m an engineering firm so don&#8217;t do anything to rock my boat &#8211; fine if you target ICT or manufacturing &#8211; but I am happy with the status quo in my sector.  I&#8217;m an ICT firm &#8211; don&#8217;t do anything to rock my boat &#8211; I&#8217;m happy with the status quo.  I&#8217;m a film production company &#8211; don&#8217;t rock my boat by bringing in other firms.  I&#8217;m a forest products firm &#8211; don&#8217;t rock my boat.</p>
<p>In the end, we need to grow sectors such as ICT, professional services, manufacturing, etc. if we want to have enough tax revenue to pay for our public services and infrastructure.   We are not doing that now and we are heading for a serious problem which will negatively impact on all of us.</p>
<p>This is actually a tough post to write as many of the critics of this deal (and others like it) are friends of mine or at least folks with a common view of the world.  When something like this happens, they worry about the negative impacts on their industry &#8211; the labour pool, upward wage costs, etc. and react negatively.   I&#8217;d like to see Halifax engineering firms embrace this kind of project and work with government and educational institutions to address the labour challenges.  But if we cut all economic development &#8211; except that for which everyone is comfortable &#8211; we would end up with, well, something that looks alot like what has happened in Atlantic Canada for the past 50 years.  None of the engineering or ICT firms cared about &#8216;call centres&#8217; but when you start to attract firms into their sectors - that old NIMBYistic view of the world comes in.</p>
<p>I welcome comments and full throated disagreement but as is the rule on this blog &#8211; nothing with personal insults or bad language will be posted.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The Feds giveth and taketh away</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5629</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5629#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Nov 2012 01:11:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5629</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While there is considerable discussion about the growth of federal government transfer payments to New Brunswick over the past 15 years, less focus has been put on the rise in federal government public administration GDP over that time frame. In 1997, federal government public administration GDP (economic activity associated with the administration of federal government [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While there is considerable discussion about the growth of federal government transfer payments to New Brunswick over the past 15 years, less focus has been put on the rise in federal government public administration GDP over that time frame.</p>
<p>In 1997, federal government public administration GDP (economic activity associated with the administration of federal government activities &#8211; think ACOA, DFO, gun registry in Miramichi, etc. &#8211; was $993 per New Brunswicker (in constant 2002 dollars).  By 2011, it had risen to just under $1,500 per person &#8211; the fastest growth rate among the 10 provinces across Canada over that time frame.  This province went from less than $100 more federal public admin GDP per capita than Ontario to almost $400 more per capita &#8211; a point that I am sure the folks in Ontario are making to their federal counterparts.</p>
<p>As we struggle to try and precisely figure out why New Brunswick`s economy is in the doldrums and how long it will last, we need to understand the impact of federal government austerity.  We won`t have hard data on this for a while but my view is that federal austerity &#8211; transfer growth stagnation, federal employment and overall spending cuts &#8211; is a big contributor to NB`s challenges &#8211; now and for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p><strong>Per Capita Federal government GDP &#8211; by province (2011 and % change since 1997)*</strong></p>
<table width="170" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<colgroup>
<col width="42" /></colgroup>
<colgroup>
<col span="2" width="64" /></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="42" height="19"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="64">GDP</td>
<td width="64">% Change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19"></td>
<td><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Per Capita</span></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">97-2011</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">NL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $1,298</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">128%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">PE</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $2,004</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">121%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">NS</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $2,094</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">116%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19"><strong>NB</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong> $1,483</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong>149%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">QC</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $ 826</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">132%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">ON</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $1,094</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">122%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">MB</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $1,074</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">108%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">SK</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $744</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">113%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">AB</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $587</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">98%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">BC</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> $688</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">113%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>*shown in 2002 dollars. Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Tables Table 379-0025 and 051-0001.</em></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Outrage: Rosedale subsidizes Etobicoke</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5625</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5625#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Nov 2012 14:56:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I see David MacKinnon has brought his anti-Equalization message to the pages of the Telegraph-Journal.  He is one of a growing number of voices in Ontario that blames equalization for Ontario&#8217;s economic woes and throws in the usual after thought about it being bad for the Maritimes as well. Anyone who has been reading this [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see David MacKinnon has brought his anti-Equalization message to the pages of the Telegraph-Journal.  He is one of a growing number of voices in Ontario that blames equalization for Ontario&#8217;s economic woes and throws in the usual after thought about it being bad for the Maritimes as well.</p>
<p>Anyone who has been reading this blog will know that I am all for a fulsome debate about equalization, transfers and economic growth but I think much of the logic used by the equalization bashers is puzzling.</p>
<p>I hate to break it to you but goverments are primarily in the business of transfering income from one segment of society to the other.  From rich to poor, from young to old, from old to young, from those without kids to fund those with kids, from those who don&#8217;t use public transport to those who do.  From healthy people to sick people.</p>
<p>So why stop at provincial borders?  Why isn&#8217;t MacKinnon outraged at the subsidization between Toronto and rural Ontario?  Or why not be outraged that Rosedale subsidizes Etobicoke?   Heck, forget about national borders, why isn&#8217;t he outraged that we give billions worth of international aid each year?  Isn&#8217;t that crippling Ontario too?</p>
<p>We live in a country that is making an effort to ensure that Canadians have access to good quality public services no matter where they live &#8211; Etobicoke, Rosedale, Moncton or Minto.  That&#8217;s an admirable objective.</p>
<p>The real problem is the chronic underperformance of the economy in the Maritimes.  We were told in the 1990s that the solution was for tens of thousands of people to pack up and leave for Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC and the Maritimes&#8217; economy would recalibrate down to a lower level, but a sustainble level of economic activity.</p>
<p>We did exactly what they asked for &#8211; shipped tens of thousands west and the economy down here in many ways is weaker than ever.</p>
<p>I think this debate is one that will have profound implications for New Brunswick.    I remember Bernard Lord demanding his &#8220;constitutional right to equalization&#8221; the last time we were in this type of negotiation.   Nowadays I am not sure that will fly.  Most east of Cornwall have been told Ontario and western Canada are paying for gold-plated public services down here and it must stop.</p>
<p>I would like to see a new partnership &#8211; where the feds and province work on a long term plan to reduce reliance on equalization based on a mix of economic growth and public sector cost growth management.   This new view out of Ottawa that tough love will solve the structural problems is a risky one.   It could lead to greater social unrest and even greater economic disparity between the regions.  That creates both social and political instability.</p>
<p>A revitalized economy in the Maritimes would be good for everyone and I don&#8217;t think we have really given that model much of a try.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Bring on the sociologists, please</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5622</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5622#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Nov 2012 11:24:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5622</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is interesting how easy it seems to be to get people fired up against economic development and so hard to get people fired up for economic development.   Forget economists, I think it is time to enrol the sociologists in this discussion. Last week, the Premier recounted the story of meeting a guy in rural [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is interesting how easy it seems to be to get people fired up against economic development and so hard to get people fired up for economic development.   Forget economists, I think it is time to enrol the sociologists in this discussion.</p>
<p>Last week, the Premier recounted the story of meeting a guy in rural NB who railed against oil and gas development here and then decried the lack of jobs that has resulted in young people moving to Alberta to work in oil and gas.</p>
<p>I have had the same discussions with folks.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not just oil and gas.  Aquaculture, forestry, mining, wind turbines, and a host of other - mostly natural resource-based development &#8211; will provoke not only negative views but a cohort of high engaged activists.  Unfortunately, there are few activists actually fighting for development.</p>
<p>My email inbox is fills up with at least 3-4 emails decrying development for every one supporting it.  I still get a fairly steady stream of posts to this blog that are unpublishable because of language or something similar.</p>
<p>Even as you read this, you have likely formed a binary opinion &#8211; sweeping the whole thing as a &#8216;yes&#8217; or &#8216;no&#8217; proposition.  &#8220;I&#8217;m not going to sacrifice the environment for jobs&#8221; on one side and &#8220;we need the jobs no matter what&#8221; on the other.</p>
<p>This is too simplistic &#8211; too 140 characteristic.</p>
<p>We need to be able to say say that &#8211; like anything in life &#8211; there are methods of economic development that exact too great a toll on the environment, communities and/or social life.  But not all development, does &#8211; not all resources-based development does.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think I have changed many minds and likely will not which is why I think it is time to bring in the sociologists.</p>
<p>Maybe they can help explain how Canadians in NL, SK, AB and BC can be overwhelmingly supportive of oil and gas development while New Brunswickers are not.</p>
<p>Maybe they can explain how NDP governments in western Canada were behind the responsible development of a wide variety of non-renewable resource industrial development while here they are the largest opponents.</p>
<p>Maybe they can explain how a Liberal leadership candidate could cast a Texas businessman as a bogeyman to be feared instead of a company prepared to invest here and hire workers into $80k+/year jobs.</p>
<p>Understanding this is far beyond the realm of economists and political pundits.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Jim Flaherty and provincial economic growth</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5619</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5619#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Nov 2012 12:55:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[A couple of months ago when it started to look like the Canadian economy wouldn&#8217;t perform as robustly in 2012 as was thought, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was on the TV assuring the public that he would do everything at his disposal including more stimulus to ensure the Canadian economy continues to grow. How [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A couple of months ago when it started to look like the Canadian economy wouldn&#8217;t perform as robustly in 2012 as was thought, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was on the TV assuring the public that he would do everything at his disposal including more stimulus to ensure the Canadian economy continues to grow.</p>
<p>How come that doesn&#8217;t apply to the provinces?  Why wouldn&#8217;t the federal Finance Minister be worried about six straight years of an average GDP growth rate of 0.9 percent in New Brunswick?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not a rhetorical question.  The same worries people have about weak growth at the national level apply to provinces as well.  Sure, in the overal scheme of things, little old New Brunswick doesn&#8217;t matter but it matters to us.</p>
<p>I would like to see the federal government response &#8211; how can it help move the NB economy forward?</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>We need more from New Brunswick&#8217;s ICT industry</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5615</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5615#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Nov 2012 11:42:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5615</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My TJ column tomorrow discusses the risks associated with a prolonged period of weak economic growth.  From 1997 to 2006, GDP growth was a healthly 3.2 percent per year in the province but since then it has dropped to a paltry 0.9 percent per year &#8211; the worst growth rate in Canada. When I was going through the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My TJ column tomorrow discusses the risks associated with a prolonged period of weak economic growth.  From 1997 to 2006, GDP growth was a healthly 3.2 percent per year in the province but since then it has dropped to a paltry 0.9 percent per year &#8211; the worst growth rate in Canada.</p>
<p>When I was going through the GDP by industry data I was disheartened to see that GDP growth from ICT has dropped from an annual average growth of $42 million per year between 1997 and 2006 to 14.9 million per year between 2006 and 2011.</p>
<p>This is a problem.  ICT should be one of the high growth areas of the economy.</p>
<p>Now I read that the NRC is cutting its staff in the province.</p>
<p>I think the luminaries for this industry should be convened and asked bluntly how to grow this sector.   Are there opportunities to stimulate more local ICT entrepreneurship?  Should we attract ICT entrepreneurs from afar (as I argued last week)?  Should we work even harder to figure out how to attract the big multinationals?  Should we micro-target areas such as data centres?   We need to &#8211; warning terrible cliche ahead &#8211; think outside the box on this.  The luminaries should be asked to think beyond our borders about how we can grow this sector.</p>
<p>People chafe at throwing big bucks at development but there must be other alternatives.  How about using personal income tax breaks to become attractive to high end ICT talent?  How about making it attractive for students to get into ICT training?   Can immigration be a way to stimulate ICT investment?  Do we have surplus baseload power now that Lepreau is back online that could be sold to data centres cheaply rather than given to Maine Governor LePage for a song?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Local economic development matters now more than ever</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5612</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5612#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2012 12:06:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just a quick follow up on my comments with Terry Seguin on CBC this morning.  I respect Minister Valcourt but his view of the Enterprise agencies seemed to be very unidimensional.  Maybe this is based on his experience with rural RDAs in Atlantic Canada.  He suggested in his comments that all the agencies did was [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just a quick follow up on my comments with Terry Seguin on CBC this morning.  I respect Minister Valcourt but his view of the Enterprise agencies seemed to be very unidimensional.  Maybe this is based on his experience with rural RDAs in Atlantic Canada.  He suggested in his comments that all the agencies did was connect entrepreneurs with government funding programs and that getting rid of them would reduce duplication and bring  &#8216;clients&#8217; closer to the programs.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a bit sad that Enterprise agencies are viewed as only the tellers for government funding programs.  I suspect that when Bud Bird spearheaded the GFEDC back in the 1990s (the precursor to Enterprise Fredericton) he never envisioned it as an organization that would be only about connecting SMEs to government funding.  I guess the irony is that federal and provincial funding of the Enterprise agencies was given so they would act as the teller.</p>
<p>But as I have said repeatedly here and elsewhere, local economic development agencies are advocates for development in their region.  They work on sector development, they work with key stakeholders such as government and universities to make the area attractive for investment and talent.  They celebrate success and vigorously promote their communities.</p>
<p>There is virtually no way the provincial government can take on that role.  You can&#8217;t advocate into the mirror.</p>
<p>The other thing is that without a local economic develpment agency, it is harder to engage the private sector.  I know there will be those that disagree with me on this but the RDA structure &#8211; with a private sector-led board &#8211; should be a better vehicle for private sector engagement.</p>
<p>As I pointed out in my interview the Greater Halifax Partnership attracts more than a million dollars a year in private sector funding and Enterprise Greater Moncton around $230,000.  This is above and beyond the hundreds and thousands of hours&#8217; worth of volunteer time by business and community leaders.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s not lose that in the name of efficiency.  If Minister Valcourt doesn&#8217;t want local agencies doing small business counselling and government program matching, fair enough, but that should only be one small part of what an effective regional develompent agency does.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Lookin&#8217; out for the little guy, the woman on the street</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5609</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5609#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2012 10:53:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5609</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There was a comment recently about how a journalist interviewed LaPierre on his shale gas report and hammered him and then interviewed Dr. Cleary and treated her like Mother Theresa.  I can&#8217;t shed any insight into the approach or views of specific journalists but I was told something once by a veterin political journalist in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There was a comment recently about how a journalist interviewed LaPierre on his shale gas report and hammered him and then interviewed Dr. Cleary and treated her like Mother Theresa.  I can&#8217;t shed any insight into the approach or views of specific journalists but I was told something once by a veterin political journalist in the province that put things into perspective for me.    I asked him what was the role of the journalist when it came to big, controversial public policy issues (the one at the time was the sale of NB Power to HQ).   After thinking about it he said it was to look out for the little guy or the man on the street &#8211; I am paraphrasing here.  In his mind, governments have their spin machines and message makers, big industry groups and other organizations also have organized machines to get their points across but the average guy/gal on the street doesn&#8217;t.  Therefore, for  him, the journalist should be extra vigilant on the big files.</p>
<p>From this perspective you can somewhat understand the journalist being harder on LaPierre and easier on Cleary.   Lapierre is advocating for a &#8216;change&#8217; &#8211; dealing with natural resources and existing controversy in the United States.  Cleary is looking out for the little guy, too.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t particularly mind that definition of a journalist.  I only quibble with the definition of the &#8216;interests&#8217; of that woman the street.  I argue she would be better off living in a province with a stronger economy, even if she had to put up with drilling trucks on the roads and hard hatted men in the local casino.</p>
<p>No one ever said journalists were impartial or disinterested actors.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>No HST on anything in the store! (if you are a biz that is)</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5607</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5607#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Oct 2012 20:22:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I just read an article in the Economist quoting the Facebook data centre guy citing the lack of a sales tax in Oregon as a main reason they set up a mega data centre there.    They swap out servers every three years and would face a huge sales tax bill in many jurisdictions. In Canada, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just read an article in the Economist quoting the Facebook data centre guy citing the lack of a sales tax in Oregon as a main reason they set up a mega data centre there.    They swap out servers every three years and would face a huge sales tax bill in many jurisdictions.</p>
<p>In Canada, someone decided that businesses should not pay sales tax so that is one advantage that New Brunswick has and should be able to quantify.  How about thousands of servers &#8211; what would be the HST on those?</p>
<p>I know it bugs someone people but New Brunswick businesses pay very little tax relative to many other jursidictions (sorry, CFIB).  KPMG says NB has the lowest total tax burden (payroll, property, sales and income taxes) for corporations of any jurisdiction in North America.</p>
<p>This should be quantified and flogged.  &#8220;If you put your data centre in New Brunswick,  you will save $$ million in sales tax alone compared to x and y jurisdiction&#8221;.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Attracting Immigrant Start-Ups</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5603</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5603#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Oct 2012 10:51:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I have never fully understood why many New Brunswickers are suspicious of people and companies that are not from here.   Maybe it’s because of our small size or because so many people leave to find opportunity elsewhere.  Maybe we just don’t trust the motives of people looking to invest or move here. I have heard [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have never fully understood why many New Brunswickers are suspicious of people and companies that are not from here.   Maybe it’s because of our small size or because so many people leave to find opportunity elsewhere.  Maybe we just don’t trust the motives of people looking to invest or move here.</p>
<p>I have heard the phrase “Why would any company want to move to New Brunswick?” more than a few times in my lifetime.</p>
<p>For whatever reason, we don’t like people and companies that “come from away” and that is too bad because it is keeping New Brunswick from reaching its full potential.  If I was sitting in the big chair up in Fredericton, I would throw the doors wide open and attract in great companies and all kinds of talented people.</p>
<p>We have lost tens of thousands of highly skilled workers to careers elsewhere and billions of dollars’ worth of our savings to investments in other parts of the world over the past few decades.  I’d like to get a little of that back.</p>
<p>I was thinking about this last week when reading about “Chilecon Valley” in the Economist magazine.   A Chilean businessman has set up a program called “Start-Up Chile” to attract people from around the world who have good start-up ideas.    These immigrant entrepreneurs move to Chile, are given the equivalent of $40,000 (U.S.) and are put through a program to validate and develop their business concept.</p>
<p>The Economist reports that since the program started in 2010 approximately 900 entrepreneurs from  37 countries have taken part.</p>
<p>One of the main reasons why the public and private sector got on board with Start-Up Chile was the perceived need to foster a technology-based start-up culture in the country.  It seems to be working as almost 40 percent of the recent round of applications were from Chilean entrepreneurs.</p>
<p>These days it is very hard for ambitious immigrant entrepreneurs to get into the United States. Chile has jumped into the breach and offered them an interesting alternative.</p>
<p>Why couldn’t we do that in New Brunswick?  We are a lot closer to the lucrative U.S.market than Chile.  We share a common language and have similar laws.  In addition, Chile apparently has limited venture capital and what the Economist calls a “harsh bankruptcy regime”.  Seems like New Brunswick would be a far better choice for aspiring immigrant entrepreneurs.</p>
<p>Setting up a similar program in New Brunswick would be easy.  Government and private investors would give Trevor MacAusland over at PropelICT a few million dollars which he<br />
would use to promote a Start-Up New Brunswick competition – not much different than his current program only targeting folks from outside the province and around the world.</p>
<p>We would bring in hundreds of aspiring immigrant entrepreneurs and hopefully dozens would stay and build their businesses here.   As in Chile, it would likely spur much more entrepreneurial spirit among the local population.</p>
<p>When the former Canadian telecommunications giant Nortel went through its massive restructuring a few years ago, I recommended that Business New Brunswick staff should go to Ottawa and stand outside the firm’s<br />
head office with placards reading “Dumped by Nortel and thinking about starting your own business?  Come to New Brunswick”.</p>
<p>No one took up my idea then and it is very doubtful any kind of immigrant start-up competition will be developed now because of the attitude described above.  People will say “that money should be given to New Brunswickers” or something to that effect.</p>
<p>We have to start looking at the big picture.  The flow of investment and talent has been overwhelmingly outward for decades.  We must begin to reverse the flow if we hope to have a sustainable economy moving forward.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Avoiding a natural gas lockout in New Brunswick</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5599</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5599#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Oct 2012 09:44:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5599</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As usual when I write anything about shale I’ll get a few emails/Tweets that are quite harsh.  In my opinion, it doesn’t add much to any debate to hurl insults. But I will respond to the person suggesting I rewatch Gasland. I saw Gasland but I don’t see much value in rewatching it. Watching Gasland, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As usual when I write anything about shale I’ll get a few emails/Tweets that are quite harsh.  In my opinion, it doesn’t add much to any debate to hurl insults.</p>
<p>But I will respond to the person suggesting I rewatch Gasland.</p>
<p>I saw Gasland but I don’t see much value in rewatching it.</p>
<p>Watching Gasland, at best, is like watching a hockey highlight reel where they only show the hits that led to concussions over the course of a year.  And they play those hits over and over.</p>
<p>No spectacular goals, no amazing saves, no tense moments when the fans are frenzied – just a serious of head shots and concussions.</p>
<p>I refuse to demonize natural gas.   It is a very valuable fuel.  Over 10,000 New Brunswick homes and businesses use it as their main source of heat.  It’s an excellent cooking fuel, too.  A number of our large industries are more competitive because of it and likely able to keep New Brunswickers employed.    Much of the electricity production in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia is now gas-fired – reducing our dependency on dirtier oil and coal.</p>
<p>If we see an exploration and production industry emerge in New Brunswick, natural gas will also start to become a significant direct economic driver.</p>
<p>The highlight reel for natural gas would include a few concussion hits but it also would include many spectacular advantages.  It might even show the hospital beds and doctors that exist in this country because of the revenue generated by the gas industry.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the public doesn&#8217;t see my highlight reel.  They see opposition politicians serving up the concussions.  They search for &#8216;fracking&#8217; on Youtube and see the concussion hits.  When they accidentally stumble upon an industry-sponsored natural gas highlight reel they are suspicious because they have been told be suspicious about anything to do with oil and gas in general.</p>
<p>I hope we avoid  a natural gas &#8216;lockout&#8217; (I  know &#8211; stretching the hockey metaphor too far).</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Bring on the boomtown</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5594</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5594#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Oct 2012 02:02:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5594</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you were to list the industries that were the most critical to the unprecedented quality of life that humans enjoy around the world the two at the top would be agriculture and energy.  In fact, a massive amount of energy is required to achieve the level of global agriculture production and so you could [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you were to list the industries that were the most critical to the unprecedented quality of life that humans enjoy around the world the two at the top would be agriculture and energy.  In fact, a massive amount of energy is required to achieve the level of global agriculture production and so you could argue that agriculture and energy go hand in hand.</p>
<p>Yet, for some strange reason, we romanticize agriculture and demonize energy.</p>
<p>This thought ran through my mind as I read the report on shale gas from New Brunswick’s Chief Medical Officer of Health published this week.  In addition, I wondered if the Chief Medical Officer in any other province in Canada – but particularly western Canada – would issue such a report demonizing natural gas development.</p>
<p>Several New Brunswick engineers have grumbled to me that the Chief Medical Officer commenting on the environmental risks of shale gas development would be the same as the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of New Brunswick weighing in on the merits of a controversial new pharmaceutical product or surgical technique.</p>
<p>There is some truth to their concern.  The Chief Medical Officer is well within her purview to warn governments about public health risks but this report delves into engineering and environmental science where there is no consensus and raises concerns that have been raised by a minority of voices that strenuously oppose the industry’s development in the United States.</p>
<p>Perhaps the strangest part of the report was the warning about the Boomtown Effect.  We are told that “[b]oomtown threats such as increases in sexually-transmitted infections (STIs), drug abuse, crime, family violence and prostitution are very real threats unless preventative actions are taken. In addition, poor health of transient workers, displacement of local people due to rising housing costs and temporary communities with poor living conditions (“man camps”) can compound the misery”.</p>
<p>Here we are looking to develop a nascent natural gas industry – which may or may not have any commercial viability at all – and the Chief Medical Officer is warning that shale gas will turn New Brunswick into a third world slum.  It’s very condescending and not at all helpful to any kind of constructive dialogue about the development of this industry.</p>
<p>Of course when there is a rise in disposable income and a large construction workforce, there is a greater risk of some of these socially negative impacts but the language used here is stunning.</p>
<p>Let me make the case in favour of the ‘boomtown’.</p>
<p>Boomtowns all over western Canada are generating the tax revenue that is paying, in part, the salary of New Brunswick’s Chief Medical Officer.   Many of them are dealing with some challenges related to rapid growth and in-migration such as a lack of housing and elevated levels of crime but nothing at all like that described in this report.</p>
<p>New Brunswick hasn’t really had a boomtown in my lifetime and probably yours.  I think most of us would appreciate an influx of high paying jobs and most of them would end up being filled by New Brunswickers (or by repatriating those who have moved away).    The increased tax revenues would gird up the public finances as we move into the wave of Boomers heading into retirement.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll reiterate my well-worn views on this.  If the public doesn&#8217;t want shale gas development, we won&#8217;t get it.  The Tories will scrap it or the Liberals will scrap it.  Either way, it will need a solid level of public support and I don&#8217;t see how scaring the public helps in this dialogue.</p>
<p>I watched a TED talk the other day by a Bulgarian political scientist who said that fact-based, iterative debate in the public square has all but disappeared as people have realized that playing on emotion is much more effective than trying to appeal to reason.  He blamed behavioral scientists for this trend.</p>
<p>I would have expected more from someone with the prestige of the Chief Medical Officer.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The young are much less likely to be self-employed in New Brunswick</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5591</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5591#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Oct 2012 19:23:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The young are much less likely to be self-employed in New Brunswick than the old (ish).  We only have data on this from the 2006 Census (and next year from the 2011 Census) but you can see from the table that you are three times more likely to be self-employed if you are in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The young are much less likely to be self-employed in New Brunswick than the old (ish).  We only have data on this from the 2006 Census (and next year from the 2011 Census) but you can see from the table that you are three times more likely to be self-employed if you are in the 55-64 age group than if you are in the 25-29 age group.  You can see also that New Brunswick&#8217;s youth are also less likely to be self-employed than their counterparts across Canada.  The number of 20-24 years olds that are self-employed in New Brunswick is 45 percent lower than Canada as a whole (or was at the time of the Census).</p>
<p>Not sure what the instructive value is in these statistics because I am not sure that self-employment means much in general &#8211; although among the 3,500 people between the ages of 25-34 that are self-employed there are a few that could be the next break out entrepreneurs developing products and services that will gain a wide audience outside New Brunswick.  That is the cohort I am most interested in &#8211; it&#8217;s just very hard to pick them out of the data.</p>
<p><strong>Self-Employed Persons per 1,000 in the Workforce (2006)</strong></p>
<table width="473" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<colgroup>
<col width="155" />
<col width="134" />
<col span="2" width="92" /> </colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="155" height="19"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="134"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">New Brunswick</span></td>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="92"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Canada</span></td>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="92"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Differential</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">Total &#8211; Age groups</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">81.0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">116.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">    15 to 19 years</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">    20 to 24 years</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">26.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">    25 to 29 years</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">35.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">56.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">    30 to 34 years</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">56.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">91.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">  35 to 44 years</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">81.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">124.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">  45 to 54 years</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">98.0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">140.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">  55 to 64 years</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">142.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">187.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">  65 to 74 years</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">302.8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">356.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="19">  75 years and over</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">434.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">453.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Com&#8217; on down to the energy farmers&#8217; market!</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5587</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5587#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Oct 2012 17:26:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5587</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have been thinking a lot lately about energy &#8211; wind, solar, gas, oil, co-gen, etc.  and as I walked through the farmers market in Halifax I had a thought. The production of food and energy are 1) and 2) in that order in terms of importance to modern life and yet we romanticize agriculture [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have been thinking a lot lately about energy &#8211; wind, solar, gas, oil, co-gen, etc.  and as I walked through the farmers market in Halifax I had a thought.</p>
<p>The production of food and energy are 1) and 2) in that order in terms of importance to modern life and yet we romanticize agriculture and demonize energy.   Wonder why that is?</p>
<p>Maybe we need an energy farmers&#8217; market.    Have the little, local guys there &#8211; Corridor Energy promoting gas and giving samples of its product, Anne Murray there promoting wind energy farming, those German immigrant solar farmers should be there too.   We could have the little hydro-power producers with their instream systems there giving out samples too.   There might be a few big guys there &#8211; you know the way a Starbucks might find its way into a Farmers&#8217; Market &#8211; Exxon or Apache maybe.</p>
<p>We could even have the energy farmers&#8217;  market in Sackville &#8211; hosted by the Town as it loves farming and farmers markets.</p>
<p>The producers would show off their wares, sell product and people would generally have a good time.  The natural gas guys would show kids how gas wells work and NB Power types would talk steam turbines.  A fun time would be had by all.</p>
<p>Of course, we&#8217;d all strike up the same debates. The vegetarian green energy advocates would decry eating meat/burning fossil fuels.  There would be organic farmers arguing against the big energy production factories.</p>
<p>We&#8217;d argue about overeating/excessive energy consumption and debate the role of government.</p>
<p>People would complain about the use of pesticides/fracking fluids &#8211; others would talk about the harms of focusing only on one or two crops (potatoes/natural gas).   There would be one or two placards out front complaining about how agricultural run off was harming the water.</p>
<p>But maybe we could bring energy back from this mysterious world it seems to live in and make to real to people.  We need energy to live.  We still burn a lot of oil in our homes &#8211; tens of thousands of homes &#8211; now they could be burning CNG &#8211; at lower cost? and much less harmful to the environment.  Maybe there would be a CNG display at the energy farmers&#8217; market.</p>
<p>Most of all, we could start a local energy initiative &#8211; sort of like the 100 mile diet advocated by so many environmentalists.  Instead of bringing in oil and gas from who knows where and with what environmental standards &#8211; we would push for more local energy benefiting local farmers and the local economy &#8211; and we know where it came from.  We have gas here &#8211; the 100 mile diet for natural gas.  We might not have much oil &#8211; but at least if we bring it in from Alberta we can trust where it came from.</p>
<p>By now you are either laughing or annoyed (or you stopped reading).</p>
<p>But suspend your first thought and think again.</p>
<p>Join me at the energy farmers&#8217; market.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Quebec, shale gas and Pandora’s Box</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5585</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5585#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 10:29:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5585</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I already received an email this morning suggesting that no one has the right to tell Quebec which industries it can or can&#8217;t development.   If they were to re-read my column in the Economy Lab they would see the following sentence: &#8220;No jurisdiction should be compelled or cajoled to implement any industrial development that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I already received an email this morning suggesting that no one has the right to tell Quebec which industries it can or can&#8217;t development.   If they were to re-read<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/quebec-shale-gas-and-pandoras-box/article4572601/"> my column</a><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/quebec-shale-gas-and-pandoras-box/article4572601/"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> in the Economy Lab they would see the following sentence:</p>
<p>&#8220;No jurisdiction should be compelled or cajoled to implement any industrial development that is deemed to have a substantial environmental risk&#8230;.&#8221;</p>
<p>But I go on to say: &#8220;it becomes complicated when the jurisdictions using that argument are in the minority.&#8221;</p>
<p>In other words, Quebec&#8217;s natural resources minister, Martine Ouellet, says &#8220;she doesn’t believe the controversial method of extracting natural gas from shale, known as “fracking,” can ever be done safely.&#8221;  Her counterparts in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland would say the opposite.</p>
<p>Now, it may be that Ms. Ouellet will be proven right.  Maybe compelling evidence will emerge that fracking is very dangerous and other provinces will shut the industry down.  Maybe the Ministers of natural resources in BC and Alberta will send letters to Ms. Ouellet thanking her for her foresight.</p>
<p>Or, maybe President Obama is right and shale gas is a game changer that will provide the U.S. with a competitive advantage for several generations.</p>
<p>It just seems to me that this issue will emerge as a big deal in the deliberations about changes to the equalization program that are currently underway.</p>
<p>The western provinces have always pushed for natural resource industries to be removed from the equalization formula.  Now that other provinces are actually rejecting those same industries &#8211; I would be highly surprised it if didn&#8217;t become a flashpoint issue.</p>
<p>As I say in the piece, this might be just what the PQ wants &#8211; to stir up resentment in the West and convince Quebeckers that the West is trying to tell them what industries they can and can&#8217;t develop.    But not all Quebeckers nor all Canadians want that province to separate.  Most Canadians support the concept of equalization &#8211; as do I &#8211; as a fundamental, binding attribute of our country.</p>
<p>But this issue could start to challenge that view.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Regional Economic Development: Whither Strategy? Advocacy? Engagement?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5580</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5580#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Sep 2012 10:46:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[At long last, the provincial government has announced its plans for regional economic development in New Brunswick&#8230;.. sort of. In fact, the provincial government is doing two things: 1) it is scrapping the Enterprise agencies and 2) it is setting up provincial government offices in 12 locations around the province to &#8220;decentralize decision-making for programs and funding [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At long last, the provincial government has <a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2012.09.0872.html">announced its plans </a><a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2012.09.0872.html"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>for regional economic development in New Brunswick&#8230;.. sort of.</p>
<p>In fact, the provincial government is doing two things: 1) it is scrapping the Enterprise agencies and 2) it is setting up provincial government offices in 12 locations around the province to &#8220;decentralize decision-making for programs and funding for small- and medium-sized businesses&#8221;.   To prove the point, the press release goes on to say the government &#8220;will offer our business community a quick and easy access to provincial funding programs&#8221;.</p>
<p>There will be advisory groups set up that will be charged with &#8220;developing a regional, rolling three-year regional economic development plan&#8221;, &#8220;determining key industry and business sectors on which to focus for expanding investment potential in each region&#8221; and &#8220;identifying strategies to achieve a prosperous and sustainable local economy.&#8221;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s no secret that am somewhat uncomfortable with the provincial government developing and owning regional economic development strategies.   I have always preferred a model where local government, business and community leaders develop regional strategies that roll up to support a provincial vision.  There are many economic development functions that are logistically better placed at the provincial level because of scale (we are a small province).  I include here investment attraction, venture capital and other stuff that makes sense to be offered on a provincial (or even regional) basis.</p>
<p>I worry that this new model will lead to even less engagement by local leaders.</p>
<p>At the same time, I have heard from many involved with the changes and privately a lot of them were not happy with the old Enterprise model.  They saw it as lacking vision, accountability and measurement.  They saw the private sector boards of directors as nothing more than rubber stamping work plans and occasionally calling up politicians to gripe about how their region has been unfairly treated.  They also saw the Enterprise agencies as &#8216;delivering provincial and ACOA programs&#8217; and felt they could do that in house without the overhead.</p>
<p>Effective regional economic development is not &#8216;delivery of provincial programs&#8217;.  That can be done by provincial government employees.</p>
<p>Regional economic development is fundamentally about creating the environment on the ground that fosters more business investment and job creation.    The &#8216;banking&#8217; services of government is only one small part of that puzzle.</p>
<p>I have said a thousand times that if the government offered zero funding programs for business (there are dozens of different programs now), 80% of economic development work would still need to get done.  Some have suggested that the banking function is just a distraction that crowds out private sector funding.  I don&#8217;t go that far but I do see it as only one small piece.  Now we have 12 new offices focused on delivering these &#8216;programs&#8217;.</p>
<p>I will repeat my vision.  It has several elements:</p>
<p>1. ACOA and the Province come up with a joint economic development strategy for the province that includes a clear and reasonable approach to foster new investment and measure that new investment.  It should be aligned with any provincial GDP growth targets.</p>
<p>2.  The &#8216;sectors&#8217; to be focused on should be those that have a clearly definable opportunity for growth here (I assume there will need to be foundational investments in marketing, infrastructure, training, supply chain).   This could and should include sectors such as mining, oil and gas, regional distribution and any other that has opportunity.</p>
<p>3. The focus on small business needs to be more tightly calibrated to high growth potential entrepreneurs.  If you want to give funding to small businesses with very limited export-based growth potential, you already have the CBDCs in place.  Let them lead in that area.</p>
<p>4. Regional economic development organizations should be primarily focused on building the value proposition for investment in their regions.  If they want to do provincial or federal government program delivery &#8211; that is fine &#8211; as long as it doesn&#8217;t distract from the much more important focus.   Program delivery can just as easily be done  by provincial government employees (at a higher cost, however) as we see under this new model.</p>
<p>5.  International business attraction marketing should be a provincial responsibility but should be tightly aligned to what is going in the regions.  Companies do not set up in &#8216;provinces&#8217;.  They set up in &#8216;communities&#8217;.  80% of the value proposition is local &#8211; maybe 10 percent is based on provincial factors and another 10 is based on national government issues such as the financial system, inflation, lack of corruption, etc.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the end, I have been begging them to get on with this.  The Enterprise agencies have been in a holding pattern for several years &#8211; even going back into the previous administration.  Now it is done and we need to get on with it.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>My intellectual journey takes a slightly new direction</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5576</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5576#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Sep 2012 19:33:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5576</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am very happy to announce that I have been asked to join the Canadian Institute for Research on Public Policy and Public Administration at the Université de Moncton as a Research Fellow.  For me this is an exciting new direction.  it will entail me working on several public policy-related projects per year and presenting findings [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am very happy to announce that I have been asked to join the <em>Canadian Institute for Research on Public Policy and Public Administration</em> at the Université de Moncton as a Research Fellow.  For me this is an exciting new direction.  it will entail me working on several public policy-related projects per year and presenting findings at selected conferences.  It is a nice supplement to my existing project work and other writings.</p>
<p>I will be collaborating with a top notch bunch of researchers.  This is very important to me as I have been looking for a more formal venues to challenge my views related to economic development.  This blog provides an informal way and I have had many, many conversations with people who also spend their days thinking about similar things (i.e. Kurt Peacock, Michael Haan, et. al.) but my affiliation with Marc Duhamel and his Institute will provide me with this needed intellectual oxygen.</p>
<p>The CIRPPPA is moving in an interesting direction and I think it will play an important role in the broader discourse about what kind of economy do we want and need to support our social goals.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m glad to be on board.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Promoting private sector economic stimulus?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5573</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5573#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Sep 2012 19:20:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5573</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As published in the Telegraph-Journal last Saturday: &#160; Earlier this week, I received a Tweet from The Globe and Mail entitled “Premier signals stimulus package to combat slowdown”.     As most Canadian provinces are in full austerity mode these days I wondered which Premier would have the audacity to roll out a new spending package? Clicking [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>As published in the Telegraph-Journal last Saturday:</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Earlier this week, I received a Tweet from The Globe and Mail entitled “Premier signals stimulus package to combat slowdown”.     As most Canadian provinces are in full austerity mode these days I wondered which Premier would have the audacity to roll out a new spending package?</p>
<p>Clicking on the Tweet, I quickly found out the Premier in question was none other than Wen Jiabao of China.  I should have guessed this.   Apparently the Premier is quite worried about China’s ability to meet its target of 7.5-percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year.</p>
<p>Last year New Brunswick had the worst real GDP growth among the 10 provinces in Canada at 0.1 percent.  In financial terms, the province was only $22 million worth of GDP away from an economy in recession (negative GDP growth).</p>
<p>RBC Economics recently revised its economic growth forecast for New Brunswick in 2012 downward to just one percent GDP growth – the worst among the 10 provinces.  RBC blames their new forecast on a lack of private-sector capital investment and a notable decline in non-residential construction spending.</p>
<p>Despite the poor outlook, it is unlikely the Premier and his resolute Finance Minister will be proposing any type of economic stimulus program any time soon.  New Brunswick is in full austerity mode.  Even with very weak GDP growth and a declining employment situation, it will be a stay-the-course approach to managing the province’s finances.</p>
<p>The problem with public sector austerity is its potential to reinforce the downward economic cycle.  The public sector has been outspending the private sector nearly three to one for many years and now it has pulled back.  This makes it that much more imperative to foster private sector investment and job creation.</p>
<p>Without an expansion of the private sector, New Brunswick could be in for a long period of weak economic growth and that will put even more pressure on the public finances.</p>
<p>The government can’t wave a magic wand and compel the private sector to invest in the province but there are things that can be done.</p>
<p>The federal government has dramatically cut the growth in its transfer payments to New Brunswick and has also announced deep cuts to its workforce in New Brunswick.  This double whammy has a direct and negative impact on the province’s GDP and employment.</p>
<p>If Ontario had just announced a 0.1 percent GDP growth in 2011 and a forecasted one percent GDP growth for 2012, it would be an international crisis.  The Prime Minister would convene a summit and the federal gravy train would flow. When little old New Brunswick is facing this economic reality, it’s just considered business as usual in Ottawa.</p>
<p>In my opinion, the federal government should take this problem seriously.  Even in the midst of austerity, both levels of government should find ways to foster private sector investment through tax breaks, investments in research and development or support for other key infrastructure.</p>
<p>I think the private sector should be challenged to step up.  I talk with a lot of business leaders and there is considerable fatigue these days and uncertainty around the prospects for New Brunswick.  But this can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  If businesses don’t invest and create jobs, the economy here weakens.  The weak economy leads to less business investment.  Less business investments leads to more uncertainty and the cycle continues.</p>
<p>If we want a prosperous New Brunswick, we have to view it as a shared responsibility.  The public should support efforts to foster private sector investment even in sensitive areas such as natural resources development and public-private partnerships (P3s) &#8211; where appropriate safeguards can be demonstrated.</p>
<p>Business leaders should invest – even during this time of uncertainty and government should make the economy its top priority despite the temptation to focus on everything else.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Solving call centre employment challenges</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5569</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5569#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Sep 2012 21:55:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5569</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Times &#38; Transcript ran a front page story detailing the challenges some of Moncton&#8217;s call centres are having recruiting staff.  This is an issue &#8211; a growing issue &#8211; particularly for call centres paying in the $12 to $15/hour range.   If you read the comment thread to my blog post on the Marriott [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Times &amp; Transcript ran a front page story detailing the challenges some of Moncton&#8217;s call centres are having recruiting staff.  This is an issue &#8211; a growing issue &#8211; particularly for call centres paying in the $12 to $15/hour range.   If you read the comment thread to my blog post on the Marriott closure in Fredericton you will see some interesting comments from folks seeming to be close to the issue.  Will that be the destiny for some of Moncton&#8217;s call centres?</p>
<p>I hope not.</p>
<p>I have said it before and I will say it again &#8211; if we want to keep that industry here and healthy we need to promote immigration as a source for new workers.  A few years ago I toured a handful of big call centres in Toronto &#8211; and 90% of the workers were immigrants.  And I am not talking about the &#8220;call during supper&#8221; outbound firms.  These were inbound customer service and tech support operations.</p>
<p>We still have a very immature view of immigration and how to align with workforce needs.</p>
<p>Now, there are those who will say we should let the call centre dry up and die.  They will say that the &#8216;good&#8217; firms paying higher wages will stay and flourish and the rest will leave.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t buy that.  Most of the firms offer decent jobs and good work environments.  A lot of folks have used these positions as springboards to promotion within the firms and outside.</p>
<p>And, I could name at least a half dozen immigrants in Moncton working at these facilities &#8211; and happy to be there (for the most part).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The rise of women</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5564</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5564#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Sep 2012 12:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There is an interesting and somewhat controversial new book out entitled The End of Men: And the Rise of Women.  I have not read this book but have read several articles on it and it is stirring reaction.  David Brooks picked up on his long held theories about the decline of boys and men.   I [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is an interesting and somewhat controversial new book out entitled <em>The End of Men: And the Rise of Women.  </em>I have not read this book but have read several articles on it and it is stirring reaction.  David Brooks picked up on his long held theories <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/opinion/brooks-why-men-fail.html?_r=1&amp;partner=rssnyt&amp;emc=rss">about the decline of boys and men</a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/opinion/brooks-why-men-fail.html?_r=1&amp;partner=rssnyt&amp;emc=rss"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>.   I don&#8217;t want to weigh too far in on this issue.  It&#8217;s really about my pay grade to paraphrase Obama but I will dip my toe in the water with a few stats for your edification.</p>
<p>Since the 1950s, the ratio of men to women in the workforce has been tightening and is now just under 1:1.</p>
<p>In just 10 years, New Brunswick has seen a huge shift in the balance between men and women.  The number of men working in New Brunswick has essentially stagnated over the past decade while the number of working women is up by more than nine percent.  In other words, New Brunswick doesn&#8217;t have an &#8216;employment&#8217; problem, it has a &#8216;male&#8217; employment problem.</p>
<p>The reason for this is that most of the new jobs being created in the NB economy are dominated by female workers.  With the exception of management (where women actually lost ground in the past decade) and natural and applied sciences occupations (poor old Larry Summers), women are dominating in all white collar industries.  Look at professional occupations in business and finance in the following table.  Look at health.  Men still dominate in occupations that involve heavy lifting but that is just about (oh, and the management jobs).</p>
<p>The wage gap has narrowed dramatically in just the past decade.  At the current pace, women will earn more than men across virtually all job categories within the next 15-20 years.</p>
<p>Probably the biggest driver of the changes is the education level of the workforce.  The women in New Brunswick&#8217;s workforce are pulling away from men in terms of education levels.  In 2001, women had only a slight advantage in the number with university degrees and far fewer with advanced degrees.  Now there are 30% more women with a university degree working in New Brunswick compared to men and the number of women with advanced degrees has zoomed by men.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll let you decide what this all means.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/women1.jpg" alt="" width="589" height="455" /></p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/women2.jpg" alt="" width="568" height="532" /></p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/women.jpg" alt="" width="440" height="299" /></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Import substitution: An other important dimension</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5561</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5561#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Sep 2012 10:54:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Most economic developers &#8211; at least the ones I know &#8211; are free traders as well.  They understand the importance of the free flow of investment and labour to efficient economies but they also predicate their support for free trade on the notion that it can be mutually beneficial.  For example, if free trade between [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most economic developers &#8211; at least the ones I know &#8211; are free traders as well.  They understand the importance of the free flow of investment and labour to efficient economies but they also predicate their support for free trade on the notion that it can be mutually beneficial.  For example, if free trade between two nations leads one to become very rich and the other poor, then free trade has failed.  Implied, therefore, is that each region in a free trade zone will have its comparative advantages and have exportable products and services to offset its imports (on which there is little local value added).  These comparative advantages can be natural &#8211; i.e. geography, natural resources, etc. or man-made &#8211; universities, research institutes, favourable tax environment, highly livable communities, etc.</p>
<p>Having set that as a baseline, import substitution is also an important dimension of economic development.  Import substitution occurs when an imported product (with little value added here) is replaced by a local producer (with high value added here).   The local jurisdiction gets the goods and the value added.</p>
<p>However, it is questionable whether we should pay a lot more for locally produced goods or sacrifice quality.  I think the Costco example is a clear reminder that the public puts price and quality ahead of any romantic notions of local retail.</p>
<p>Economic developers should be snooping around looking for opportunities to promote import substitution &#8211; on a province or even national basis.    For example, I struggle to understand how Maple Leaf can make hotdogs in Brampton and ship and distribute them across Atlantic Canada more cheaply than doing it from a Moncton facility.   My hunch is that they didn&#8217;t want to be bothered with the hassle of running multiple manufacturing sites and didn&#8217;t really worry about pennies per hot dog in the difference.  It&#8217;s convenient to have a  mega manufacturing facility in a central location but it might not be more cost effective.</p>
<p>However, that might create an opportunity for another hot dog manufacturer to zoom in an capture the Atlantic Canada market from a Moncton facility.</p>
<p>Obviously I don&#8217; t know the economics of the hot dog business but you get my point, in theory at least.</p>
<p>This is just another dimension of economic development.  I am encouraging folks to think more broadly about how economies grow and about the role of both public and private sector players in fostering more development.</p>
<p>Some of us have boiled down economic development to handing out grants and loans.  That has never been economic development.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Millennials in Saint John: Population decline but income growth</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5550</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5550#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Sep 2012 19:58:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s kind of interesting.  The population aged 25-34 has been in decline in the Saint John CMA but income growth is heading in the other direction.  I recently took a look at the 10 year growth in the number of persons earning $100,000 or more in Saint John compared to the province as a whole [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s kind of interesting.  The population aged 25-34 has been in decline in the Saint John CMA but income growth is heading in the other direction.  I recently took a look at the 10 year growth in the number of persons earning $100,000 or more in Saint John compared to the province as a whole (the data on this for other urban centres in New Brunswick only starts in 2007).    Across the province, the relative number of persons aged 25-34 earning $100k or in 2000 was 39.5 per 10,000.  By 2010 it was up to 146.7 per 10,000.  The growth rate was highest among the 25-34 compared to other age groups.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/incomeage1.jpg" alt="" width="532" height="404" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>On an absolute basis, as shown below, Saint Johners in the 45-54 age group have the highest percentage of $100k earners (nearly nine percent of the total claiming income in 2010).  But look at Freddy Beach.  If you are young in Freddy, your chances of earning $100k or more are no better than in Edmundston.  But if you can work your way through the public sector and university hierarchies, you have a much greater chance of earning $100k by the time you are 55 than any other urban centre in New Brunswick &#8211; by a wide margin.  Look at the difference between $100k earners between the ages of 55-64 in Saint John and Moncton compared to Freddy Beach.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/incomeage.jpg" alt="" width="530" height="398" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Now, for those young &#8216;uns looking to make the big bucks, they had better head West.   In Wood Buffalo (Fort McMurray) there were 5,170 people aged 25-34 who reported earning at least $100k in 2010 &#8211; out of a total population in that age group of 14,550 (with reported income).  In Saint John, there were 330 people in that age group who reported $100k or more in total income out of a population of 14,430.</p>
<p>Even among the old timers aged 55-64 &#8211; you still have nearly five times the people earning $100k or more Fort Mac compared to Freddy Beach.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s enough to make you stop and think&#8230;.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/incomeage4.jpg" alt="" width="520" height="400" /></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Architecting and engineering prosperity in New Brunswick</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5544</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Sep 2012 10:40:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[As published in the Telegraph-Journal September 1, 2012 I have been talking about the need for New Brunswick to pursue an “all of the above” strategy for economic development.  This approach entails turning over every rock in search of opportunities big and small that could collectively move forward the provincial economy and strengthen our provincial [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>As published in the Telegraph-Journal September 1, 2012</strong></p>
<p>I have been talking about the need for New Brunswick to pursue an “all of the above” strategy for economic development.  This approach entails turning over every rock in search of opportunities big and small that could collectively move forward the provincial economy and strengthen our provincial government’s fiscal position.</p>
<p>Architectural and engineering services could be one of the rocks that need to be turned over.</p>
<p>A decade ago there were less than 1,600 people working in the architectural, engineering and related services sector in New Brunswick.  In 2011 that figure had jumped to more than 2,500 workers (a 58 percent increase).  In May/June of this year, unadjusted total employment has topped 3,000 workers.</p>
<p>In addition to employment growth, average industry wages are on the rise.  Between 2000 and 2005, the average weekly earnings growth in this sector was well below average.   Between 2005 and 2011, the average weekly earnings grew by more than 32 percent.  On an annualized basis, the average worker in the architectural, engineering and related services sector in New Brunswick now earns $65,000/year which is 58 percent higher than the average across all industries.</p>
<p>Even with the recent employment growth spurt, New Brunswick still has one of the smallest architectural, engineering and related services industries across Canada adjusted for the size of the economy.  Only Manitoba and Prince Edward Island have smaller industries.</p>
<p>I’m not sure why the industry is in a mini-boom right now.</p>
<p>Average annual profit margins in the architectural, engineering and related services sector were in line with the national average between 2000 and 2005 but have declined in the past few years and are now below average.</p>
<p>In the last few years, a number of the province’s engineering firms have been acquired by national or international companies.  One of the largest firms, Fredericton-based Neill and Gunter was acquired by Stantec and another long time Fredericton institution, ADI Limited, carved off and sold much of its business to Trow Global (now exp Services Ltd.) in 2009.</p>
<p>Despite the fear of pundits at the time, it doesn’t seem these acquisitions have led to negative effects (i.e. jobs moving elsewhere).  In fact, the industry’s continued growth could mean these firms are expanding here.</p>
<p>How do we ensure this industry continues to grow?</p>
<p>There are several ways.  One, we need to focus on building expertise here and then exporting that expertise outside New Brunswick.   I recently talked with an engineer in Fredericton who told me that at least one-third of all revenue generated by the Fredericton engineering services cluster comes from markets outside the province.   At the same time, Saint John-based engineering firms have been expanding their energy and mining related expertise.  Hopefully, this expertise can also be exportable to other markets.</p>
<p>We also should try to convince the national and multinational firms with offices in New Brunswick to expand here – not to capture more local market share &#8211; but to establish centres of excellence from which to export services around the world.  Fredericton already has a solid track record in environmental engineering and Saint John is strong in energy-related engineering.</p>
<p>We can just ignore industries such as this and hope they will grow.  A thousand new jobs in this sector would create more than $125 million worth of new annual gross domestic product (GDP) and close to $30 million/year in tax revenues for government.</p>
<p>The decline in the advertising and public relations business in New Brunswick (as outlined in my last column) is an excellent reminder that over time professional services can be consolidated out of a place like our province.</p>
<p>If there is a nugget of opportunity in the architectural and engineering services sector, let’s do what we can to exploit it.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>My &#8220;all of the above&#8221; strategy: summarized</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5541</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5541#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Sep 2012 11:56:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[A couple of people have asked me to describe my &#8221;all of the above&#8221; strategy for economic development.   First off, I borrowed the term from Obama who talks about an &#8221;all of the above&#8221; strategy for energy development.  I expand it to economic development more broadly. I have written about this before so if you search the blog, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A couple of people have asked me to describe my &#8221;all of the above&#8221; strategy for economic development.   First off, I borrowed the term from Obama who talks about an &#8221;all of the above&#8221; strategy for energy development.  I expand it to economic development more broadly.</p>
<p>I have written about this before so if you search the blog, you should get other references but in summary the All of the Above strategy involves looking at every single industry -in a deliberate way &#8211; to see if there could be opportunity for development in New Brunswick.  There are over 700 NAICS codes from soy bean farming to local government administration and I would put 4-5 cracker jack researchers in a room and have them evaluate every single one.  What is the state of this industry in New Brunswick?  What are the trends across North America and beyond?  Do we have anything interesting or unique to offer the industry?  Do we have other elements of a value proposition for that industry?  Are there local champions in New Brunswick (i.e. companies) that might help us think through how we can develop that industry here?</p>
<p>Again, I&#8217;m not talking about Soviet style central planning or even some grand industrial policy.</p>
<p>The example I used in my column yesterday was engineering.   For some reason, the industry has added something like 1,000 jobs in the last year or so and has been growing for several years.  Why?   Is it export-based?  Several of New Brunswick&#8217;s big engineering firms were acquired in the past few years.  Are they growing here?  The point is to determine if there are exportable services that can be built upon in that sector and what could be the role of the universities, colleges, R&amp;D providers, government, industry associations, etc.</p>
<p>I find economic development in New Brunswick tends to get locked into a) the usual suspect industries and b) the banking mode.    We aren&#8217;t looking at the potential of NAICS 54142 Industrial Design Services &#8211; because we never have.  Maybe there is no opportunity here.  Maybe there is.  We don&#8217;t know because we are too busy being a bank for small business.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Where have New Brunswick&#8217;s mad men (and women) gone?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5538</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5538#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Aug 2012 15:48:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[As originally published in the Telegraph-Journal (Wednesday this week). The term ‘mad men’ was given to the people involved in the advertising and public relations business back in the 1950s and 1960s because most of the firms were located on Madison Avenue in New York City and most of their professional workers were men. Back [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As originally published in the Telegraph-Journal (Wednesday this week).<br />
The term ‘mad men’ was given to the people involved in the advertising and public relations business back in the 1950s and 1960s because most of the firms were located on Madison Avenue in New York City and most of their professional workers were men.</p>
<p>Back in 1997, according to Statistics Canada, there were more than 700 people working in the advertising, public relations, and related services sector in New Brunswick. At that time, we had more people working in the advertising and P.R. business – adjusted for the size of our economy &#8211; than British Columbia, Nova Scotia, Alberta, Manitoba, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador.</p>
<p>That year, unfortunately, was the high water mark for the mad men (and women) in New Brunswick. Since then, the industry has been shedding employment at a rapid rate. By 2011, there were only an estimated 232 people working in the advertising and public relations business across the province – a startling 67 percent decline.</p>
<p>And this is not part of a national trend. Across Canada, employment in this sector has grown by 32 percent since 1997 adding more than 11,000 workers. Nova Scotia and Manitoba have shed advertising and public relations employment too but Ontario witnessed a significant 66 percent increase in mad men (and women). Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec all had modest increases in advertising and public relations employment between 1997 and 2011.</p>
<p>It is hard to say exactly why employment in this industry in New Brunswick has essentially collapsed in just 15 years. Certainly the takeover of the NBTel by Bell resulted in a moderate loss of advertising and P.R. activity. There has also been some consolidation of the industry within Atlantic Canada resulting in a net loss of employment in New Brunswick. However, it’s hard to see how these two trends could have led to the loss of nearly 500 workers.<br />
According to Statistics Canada, annual operating profit margins in New Brunswick’s advertising, public relations, and related services sector have averaged 7.9 percent from 2001 to 2010 which has been the second lowest in Canada among the 10 provinces. The industry in Nova Scotia has witnessed a much more robust 12.4 percent average annual operating profit margin over the decade.</p>
<p>Some people might think this is no big loss. For them advertising is superfluous and public relations is nothing more than professional deception.</p>
<p>But this industry is at the epicentre of the creative economy. It employs graphic designers, writers, photographers, audio/visual artists and increasingly Web and social media developers. For the most part, the industry offers intense but rewarding careers.</p>
<p>There was a time I actually believed New Brunswick could grow its advertising and P.R. sector by providing services to the national firms based in Toronto and elsewhere. When I put this idea to one of New Brunswick’s leading mad men, he told me “no Toronto firm would outsource work to little old New Brunswick”. Little places like New Brunswick cannot compete with New York, Chicago and Toronto.</p>
<p>The funny thing, however; is that a number of smaller jurisdictions in the United States have very impressive advertising and public relations industries.<br />
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Vermont and South Dakota are in the top five states for the concentration of public relations specialists and advertising sales agents. Minnesota has the second highest concentration of graphic designers among the 50 U.S. states.</p>
<p>We should convene those who are left in the industry to figure out what went wrong and brainstorm a brighter future for the sector.</p>
<p>If we are serious about building the creative economy in New Brunswick we should start by figuring out what went wrong with our mad men (and women).</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Fredericton&#8217;s Marriott Call Centre: The $150 million mistake?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5534</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5534#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Aug 2012 12:09:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Invariably, when a call centre closes or cuts its staff I get an email or two decrying the McKenna call centre effort with the usual &#8220;big companies come here exploit our people, take our tax dollars (incentives) and then leave&#8221;. Sigh. If you read my earliest writings on this years ago you will find I [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Invariably, when a call centre closes or cuts its staff I get an email or two decrying the McKenna call centre effort with the usual &#8220;big companies come here exploit our people, take our tax dollars (incentives) and then leave&#8221;.</p>
<p>Sigh.</p>
<p>If you read my earliest writings on this years ago you will find I said total employment in this sector would peak and then start to level off and slowly decline as a result of customer interaction moving online.  In 1999 when Marriott set up in Freddy how many hotel rooms were booked online?</p>
<p>However, this certainly doesn&#8217;t invalidate the call centre initiative.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/08/28/nb-marriott-call-centre-fredericton.html">CBC reports </a><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/08/28/nb-marriott-call-centre-fredericton.html"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>that Marriott employed 265 in Freddy.    The company started smaller but added 95 in 2001.  Assuming the majority of those were full time and at the industry average wage that means somewhere between $50 and $70 million in direct payroll between 1999 and 2012 and if you roll that up to operating costs and put a very conservative multiplier on it you are looking at around $150 million worth of economic activity for the Freddy area during that time period.</p>
<p>Not a bad return on investment for whatever the government put in (usually a few thousand per worker &#8211; one time).    I can&#8217;t give you an exact amount of public investment because the Lord government was known for being particularly vague about the public investment in these projects.   The <a href="http://www.gnb.ca/cnb/news/bnb/2001e0372ie.htm">press release from 2001</a><a href="http://www.gnb.ca/cnb/news/bnb/2001e0372ie.htm"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> doesn&#8217;t mention government incentives.    There may have been n0ne &#8211; but I suspect there were.</p>
<p>Every year in New Brunswick, hundreds of businesses shut their doors or go bankrupt &#8211; from mom and pops to large firms.</p>
<p>In general, the government should do nothing to try and stop this.  Businesses close because of business conditions and trying to prop them up makes no sense.</p>
<p>There is an exception, of course.  The CBC report states that the &#8220;Marriott also has call centres in Saskatoon, Sask. and Sarnia, Ont., as well as several centres in the United States.&#8221;   This is an important statement.  The question for economic developers (and his Worship) needs to be why close Fredericton and not Saskatoon or Sarnia.  The U.S. equation is more complicated.</p>
<p>The broader point is that we need to be marching on.  What are the new growth sectors?  Where is the investment coming from?   What is the most intelligent role for government to play?</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>NB youth need options to stay home</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5531</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Aug 2012 20:25:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m going to start publishing my TJ columns here a few days after they run in the physical paper.    Here is the one from Saturday: &#160; A few weeks ago three young men from a small town in New Brunswick bid farewell to their families, got in their pickup truck and set out for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m going to start publishing my TJ columns here a few days after they run in the physical paper.    Here is the one from Saturday:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>A few weeks ago three young men from a small town in New Brunswick bid farewell to their families, got in their pickup truck and set out for Alberta. They didn’t have a job waiting for them.</p>
<p>They just expected to find good-paying jobs after a long ride in the truck.</p>
<p>I thought about those three guys when I saw the Twitterverse light up Thursday with images showing hundreds of people lined up for a job fair in Fredericton hosted by oil and gas firms from Alberta. According to media reports, more than 1,000 people showed up to get a crack at high-paying oil and gas jobs out West.</p>
<p>You can’t help but see irony all over New Brunswick these days.</p>
<p>North Dakota oil – most likely extracted using hydraulic fracturing – is being brought in by rail to be processed in New Brunswick’s oil refinery while two of New Brunswick’s three main political parties are falling over themselves to try and stop our nascent natural gas development industry in its tracks.</p>
<p>While our sons and daughters line up to leave for the oil and gas industry elsewhere, some of New Brunswick’s most visible mayors are serving up tasty but ultimately hollow quotes such as “our water is more important than gas” and making grand statements during council meetings about protecting New Brunswickers.</p>
<p>Apparently watching our kids leave to frack elsewhere doesn’t bother them much.</p>
<p>Who can blame our young people for wanting to leave?</p>
<p>The unemployment rate among those 15 to 19 in New Brunswick is over 21 per cent. At nearly 15 per cent, New Brunswick also has the dubious distinction of having the second-highest unemployment rate among the 10 Canadian provinces in the 20-to-24 age group.</p>
<p>What we really need from our politicians, local mayors, community leaders, academics and anyone else who cares about New Brunswick is to spend less time demonizing one of our greatest natural resources (70+ trillion cubic feet of natural gas) and more time trying to figure out how get it out of the ground.</p>
<p>If we can’t get it out – for either commercial or environmental reasons – it should be considered a great tragedy, not a cause for celebration.</p>
<p>A delegation of Quebec farmers recently went to Alberta to see how natural gas extraction using hydraulic fracturing is done alongside the agriculture industry.</p>
<p>Maybe one of our mayors should lead a delegation of concerned New Brunswick citizens on the same pilgrimage. That would be far more helpful than one-line zingers on prime-time Monday night Rogers TV.</p>
<p>Some of the most respected environmental groups in the United States are – albeit grudgingly – providing their view as to the best conditions for developing the shale gas industry.</p>
<p>They have realized their time is best spent trying to ensure effective regulations and environmental safeguards rather than trying to bring the industry down. That’s a helpful role.</p>
<p>Of course the oil and gas industry will not be a panacea for New Brunswick. If we are serious about fostering prosperity here, this industry is one piece of the puzzle. I am told it could provide a steady flow of high-value economic activity for 50 to 60 years.</p>
<p>But the broader issue is whether or not – deep down in our collective soul – we really even care about economic development. We give it lip service, but after generations of New Brunswickers goin’ down the road, I think most of us are just resigned to the fact.</p>
<p>One colleague recently told me that all three of his kids left. “Look on the bright side,” he told me, “at least now I have some interesting places to visit.”</p>
<p>For me, that’s not good enough.</p>
<p>I want our kids to have the choice – stay or leave – but you decide. For far too many young New Brunswickers there isn’t any option.</p>
<p>David Campbell is an economic development consultant based in Moncton. He writes a daily blog, It’s the Economy Stupid, at www.davidwcampbell.com.His column appears every Wednesday and Saturday.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Note to Ibby:  Which province &#8211; Ontario or New Brunswick has benefitted more from the &#8216;Canadian model&#8217;?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5518</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5518#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Aug 2012 11:09:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[John Ibbitson isn&#8217;t tiptoeing through the tulips in his column last Sunday.    He equates Quebec and the Maritimes (he has dropped Newfoundland from his critique in recent years) to the Mediterranean &#8211; &#8220;The euro zone could become, in effect, a mirror image of Canadian federalism, with the Mediterranean playing the role of Quebec and the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John Ibbitson isn&#8217;t <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/why-germany-shuns-canadas-debt-model/article4478005/">tiptoeing through the tulips</a><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/why-germany-shuns-canadas-debt-model/article4478005/"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> in his column last Sunday.    He equates Quebec and the Maritimes (he has dropped Newfoundland from his critique in recent years) to the Mediterranean &#8211; &#8220;The euro zone could become, in effect, a mirror image of Canadian federalism, with the Mediterranean playing the role of Quebec and the Maritimes.&#8221;</p>
<p>The government of New Brunswick spends more than $10,000 per elementary and secondary school student each year (from the 2012/2013 budget).  So, in 2012 dollars, the New Brunswick taxpayer spends roughly $10,400 per student per year.  Over the course of 12 years, the taxpayer will pony up $125,000 to educate each young person (in 2012 dollars).</p>
<p>Then some will go on to university where the taxpayer will end up paying roughly $64,000 for each New Brunswicker going through a four year program (in 2012 dollars).   These are order of magnitude estimates as I can&#8217;t get break out the exact number of New Brunswickers in NB universities (I can back out foreign students but not other Canadians).</p>
<p>So, the New Brunswick taxpayer will spend over $189,000 per student (in 2012 dollars) only to watch a large chunk leave and go work and pay taxes in Ontario and other Canadian provinces.</p>
<p>You would have to ask Dr. Haan at UNB for exact numbers but suffice it to say that tens of thousands of NBers over the past 40 years have been educated here and used that education elsewhere (mainly Ontario).</p>
<p>If Ibby wants to cut off Equalization, what should we charge him for training his workforce in Ontario?</p>
<p>There are many more examples.  How about federal government spending on science and technology &#8211; a subject that makes Ibby break out in goose bumps.</p>
<p>From just 2007 to 2011, the federal government spent $17.5 billion on science and technology (just intramural by the way &#8211; not including the billions spent funding other sectors) in Ontario (the province and Ottawa&#8217;s share of the Ottawa/Gatineau CMA) or about $1,460 per person compared to less than $350 per person in New Brunswick.  In just the four years 2007 to 2011, that is a $754 million deficit to New Brunswick.  In other words, if the feds had funded science and technology in this province as in Ontario, it would mean another $754 million just between 2007 and 2011.</p>
<p>There are many other examples from arts and culture funding to the large federal government corporate incentive programs but I think the point is clear.</p>
<p>Ibby&#8217;s main point in his column was that Germany&#8217;s Angela Merkel should avoid Canadian style mutualization of debt lest her country end up like Ontario in Canada.</p>
<p>Slow that down &#8211; Ontario &#8211; in &#8211; Canada.</p>
<p>Ibby would say that New Brunswick has been lucky to be in this Canadian model &#8211; that should be avoided by Germany at all costs.</p>
<p>But I ask you.  Which province &#8211; Ontario or New Brunswick &#8211; has benefitted more from the &#8216;Canadian model&#8217;?</p>
<p>If you understand basic math, Ontario has made out like a banshee and New Brunswick has suffered under an oppressive transfer system that overspends the &#8216;good&#8217; money (R&amp;D, etc.) in Ontario and overspends the &#8216;bad&#8217; money (Equalization) in New Brunswick.</p>
<p>At least that is the counterpoint to Ibbitston&#8217;s simplistic analysis.  You and I both know this issue is far more nuanced.</p>
<p>But we soldier on.</p>
<p>If Germany follows Canada&#8217;s lead and Germany becomes Canada&#8217;s Ontario, Germany will boom for the next 50 years while whole regions of the EU will suffer.</p>
<p>So, by that logic, Germany should embrace Canadian-style transfer systems with open arms.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Row row row your (economic development) boat vigorously down the stream</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5515</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5515#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Aug 2012 11:12:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Someone asked me if there was a subtext to my TJ column this week calling for all of our economic development organizations to  get in the boat and start rowing in the same direction.  I listed off a few and I definitely include industry groups and other private sector stakeholders. It seems to me that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Someone asked me if there was a subtext to my TJ column this week calling for all of our economic development organizations to  get in the boat and start rowing in the same direction.  I listed off a few and I definitely include industry groups and other private sector stakeholders.</p>
<p>It seems to me that decisions need to be made &#8211; future of the Enterprise agencies, future of NRC, new innovation agenda, etc. and we need to get on with it.    I hear a lot of talk about the feeling that  things are still in &#8216;limbo&#8217; out there and that seems to me to be a problem.</p>
<p>Now is the time for intelligent economic development.  The feds and the province should come together and agree on an approach and how each one fits.  This is too small a province to do otherwise.  And we need to have strong local leadership around economic development.    Whatever is done with the Enterprise agencies it should lead to greater capacity and mobilization on the ground in the  communities.  Economic development occurs in communities &#8211; not in provinces.  As I have said before 95% of the decisions that need to be made around a new business investment are decisions related to the local community &#8211; operating cost structure, labour market, real estate, supply chain, etc.</p>
<p>In a small province you have to centralize things.   You couldn&#8217;t have an &#8216;Invest NB&#8217; in every little community around New Brunswick.  You can&#8217;t have an Innovation Foundation in every community.  But you can have engaged local stakeholders and folks eager to build a stronger value proposition for investment.</p>
<p>You make hay while the sunshine but you plant the seeds in the spring.  It&#8217;s springtime in New Brunswick.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>What were they thinking?  A global economy?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5512</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5512#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Aug 2012 18:11:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[As I have said before, we all have to deal with our own ideological contradictions.    One of the most challenging positions is the one that is dead set against free trade.  There is no doubt that free trade has formed basis of an economic revival in much of the world from China to Brazil to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As I have said before, we all have to deal with our own ideological contradictions.    One of the most challenging positions is the one that is dead set against free trade.  There is no doubt that free trade has formed basis of an economic revival in much of the world from China to Brazil to Africa but all the benefits that were supposed to accrue to the rich countries &#8211; that&#8217;s a harder sell.  Sure, we have seen a fairly high number of jobs created in higher end occupations and, for a place like Canada, a greater demand for our natural resources.  There is also no doubt that global trade has kept the cost of a lot of products from cell phones to underwear much lower than they would have been.</p>
<p>But we are in relatively heavy debt &#8211; public and private, we have entitlement programs that are taking an ever increasing share of our economic output and we are well below full employment across Canada with some areas much worse than others.</p>
<p>I remember discussing global trade back in my MBA days &#8211; in 1989-1990 &#8211; and even then thinking it would ultimately be more beneficial to the have-nots than the haves but I thought then, and now, that maybe a little belt tightening in the rich world for the benefit of the poor part &#8211; not a bad trade off.</p>
<p>But as the dust settles and we look forward, we need to be thinking about how we foster economies that create at or near full employment and enough revenue to pay for our public services and infrastructure.    If the rich world has to belt tighten more and more  - it is reasonable to assume that eventually we will get more protectionism, more stifling of trade and investment flows and more bitterness between countries.  The optimists will retort that as countries like China get richer, they will need more and more products/services from the rich countries and it behooves these countries to get good at stuff the Chinese want.  Canada is lucky enough to have oil and potash and other minerals.</p>
<p>We probably should also have some high value services or produced goods.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Unfortunately, I am not a raving lunatic</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5508</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5508#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2012 17:08:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There are a few people who are determined to throw me in the camp of the hard right  zealots.    For example, I got a couple of emails this morning suggesting &#8220;what is wrong with the social safety net&#8221;?  Do I want to throw old people  and the unemployed out on the street? Not really. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are a few people who are determined to throw me in the camp of the hard right  zealots.    For example, I got a couple of emails this morning suggesting &#8220;what is wrong with the social safety net&#8221;?  Do I want to throw old people  and the unemployed out on the street?</p>
<p>Not really.   In fact, if you read the column you will get to this exact quote:</p>
<p>&#8220;I am not criticizing the social safety net. In a developed and prosperous country such as Canada, it is laudable that we carve off a portion of our national income to provide for the elderly and the poor and to provide programs such as unemployment insurance and workers&#8217;compensation. &#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>My point is that we need to have x people working and earning employment income to pay for the social safety net used by y people.  It seems reasonable to me that we need to understand this dynamic and start to show some concern when the ratio between workers and those receiving government transfer income starts to narrow.</p>
<p>Take Ontario<a href="http://www.jupia.ca/ontarioratio.pdf"> for example</a><a href="http://www.jupia.ca/ontarioratio.pdf"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>.  Every single CMA and CA area in the province saw a worsening ratio of employment income to government transfer income between 2001 and 2010 (note that the Ottawa CMA includes part of Quebec so it is not in this table) while every single CMA/CA in Alberta <a href="http://www.jupia.ca/albertaratio.pdf">saw its ratio</a><a href="http://www.jupia.ca/albertaratio.pdf"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> of employment income to government transfer income widen from 2001 to 2010.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>But there is a broader point that was made to me by a journalist not that long ago.  He said my problem was I am not controversial enough.  I only have 700 or so Twitter followers and maybe a few hundred that read the blog from time to time.  He told me that if I made my message more &#8216;edgier&#8217; I would get far more traffic and commentary.    In a world of Fox News, CNN and MSNBC &#8211; I&#8217;m CNN and CNN has the lowest ratings of all.</p>
<p>He told me I should even think hard about my Twitter feed.  A bold and controversial comment is far more likely to generate clicks than a normal statement.   Most people have hundreds if not several thousand Twitter feeds they are following and unless you shock them, they won&#8217;t click.</p>
<p>I thought about this a lot.  I am not really in the controversy game.  My message is that places like New Brunswick need to have a stronger economic agenda because communities need a solid economic foundation on which to achieve other social and community objectives.   We need to have enough economic activity to skim off the taxes needed to pay for good quality public services and infrastructure.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not really a fringe position &#8211; it&#8217;s just a mostly ignored position.</p>
<p>After almost a decade of writing this blog and hundreds of columns in local, regional and national press &#8211; I&#8217;m not sure we are any more serious about the kinds of fundamental reform to our economic policies than we were before.  In fact, the old timers have spent a lot of time suggesting that New Brunswick was more proactive in the 1960s and 1970s than now.   I don&#8217;t know if there is data to back up that position.</p>
<p>Besides, remember when I was doing the video weekly blog a couple of years ago?  It got very little traffic and the guy that produced it said if we really wanted traffic we needed to introduce it with a scantily clad lady.</p>
<p>But that&#8217;s not my audience.  I&#8217;d rather have a couple of hundred people that are really concerned about the subject matter than thousands of people trolling for pretty girls.</p>
<p>So don&#8217;t expect much lunacy coming out of this corner any time soon.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>A kind of vindication of my view on Equalization?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5502</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5502#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Aug 2012 11:45:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I have always thought that Equalization was holding back the economic development potential of New Brunswick.  I believe the same thing about EI.  It&#8217;s easier for the feds to cut a cheque than it is to work with the province on a long term vision for economic development in a place like New Brunswick.   [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have always thought that Equalization was holding back the economic development potential of New Brunswick.  I believe the same thing about EI.  It&#8217;s easier for the feds to cut a cheque than it is to work with the province on a long term vision for economic development in a place like New Brunswick.   However, when I used to discuss this here and in columns I was told that my views were confused.  One NB university economist directly rebuffed me saying that Equalization had &#8220;nothing to do with economic development&#8221;.  The following is from a thoughtful paper by former BoC head David Dodge on Equalization and transfers:</p>
<p><em>However, transfers can also play a counterproductive role if they act to mask inexorable structural change, delay necessary adaptation and create the illusion that the unsustainable can somehow be sustained indefinitely. Ultimately, they can destroy unity by creating resentment, disrespect and distrust. In the long run, unions can be sustained only when all members are able and willing to fully participate and contribute to the union.</em></p>
<p><em>Equalization is a zero-sum game of income redistribution that increasingly generates more resentment than satisfaction. Adopting some or all of these technical changes to the equalization formula may mitigate the problem but will not be a sustainable solution to today&#8217;s unprecedented challenge &#8211; a challenge that is not cyclical and destined to quickly disappear, but structural and longer-term.</em></p>
<p><em>We believe the &#8220;solution&#8221; lies elsewhere: we need to focus less on the equality (or comparability) and more on the quality (or adequacy) of public services; less on federal transfers that redistribute income to &#8220;equalize&#8221; fiscal capacity, more on federal investments that will create more income and build the fiscal capacity of today&#8217;s lower-income provinces. We need policies that promote positive provincial convergence and the development of competitive manufacturing and service industries, and that also reflect the practical reality that Canada&#8217;s economic prosperity and political equilibrium ultimately depend on the economic strength of all provinces, especially populous Ontario.</em></p>
<p><em>In short, we need to think and look outside the equalization and transfers box, outside the narrow confines of subsection 36 (2) of the Constitution Act, 1982, and look to the broader economic objectives of subsection 36 (1).</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Of course, Dodge inserts &#8220;especially populous Ontario&#8221; because just about no one cared about this stuff until Ontario joined the have-nots.  Now it&#8217;s front page news.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s no secret that New Brunswick&#8217;s economy and society has sputtered along for far to many decades.   It has become the poster child for transfers &#8211; Equalization and EI alone generate $2.6 billion worth of revenue for New Brunswick ($3,500 per person).</p>
<p>Unlike my economist colleague, I prefer to have bring economic development directly into the conversation about Equalization.  I&#8217;d like to see long term strategies to reduce Equalization &#8211; joint fed/prov &#8211; with milestones, investment targets, immigration, etc.   As Dodge says, &#8220;Canada&#8217;s economic prosperity and political equilibrium [key point] ultimately depend on the economic strength of all provinces&#8221;.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s long overdue.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Clarifying have and have not city calculations</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5499</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5499#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Aug 2012 02:52:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Just a few quick points in response to several emails I received on my latest G&#38;M post.   First, here is the full table of all CMA and CA areas for the reliance on government transfer income and average income tax contribution. I also want to say that I am not drawing any conclusions here about [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just a few quick points in response to several emails I received on my latest G&amp;M post.   First, here is <a href="http://www.jupia.ca/reliancetaxesgeneratedtable2010.pdf">the full table </a><a href="http://www.jupia.ca/reliancetaxesgeneratedtable2010.pdf"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>of all CMA and CA areas for the reliance on government transfer income and average income tax contribution.</p>
<p>I also want to say that I am not drawing any conclusions here about the government transfer income <em>per se</em>.    All government transfer income &#8211; CPP, OAS, EI, workers&#8217; comp, social assitance, child tax credits, etc. is there for a reason.  That debate is for another day.  I am just saying that the ratio between employment income and government transfer income matters.  The national average is 18 cents worth of government transfer income per $1.00 of employment income.  As is shown in the chart, there are now many communities in the 25, 30 and up to 72 cents range (Elliot Lake).</p>
<p>I think most people would agree there is some threshold where this ratio starts to become a problem.  Is it 20 cents?  30 cents 40 cents?   All I am saying is that we are there already with a number of communities and those same communities - for the most part &#8211; also contribute well below average income tax revenues.  That was my definition of a &#8216;have not&#8217; community &#8211; well above average reliance on government transfer income and well below contribution to income taxes.</p>
<p>To those who think the analysis was &#8216;high level&#8217; &#8211; I agree.  These columns are a place to discussion issues and trends &#8211; not to fully exhaust a large scale public policy issue.</p>
<p>I think this type of analysis is needed and should be part of our debate.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Shale gas as a source of university revenue</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5497</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2012 10:04:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I talked with someone recently that visited the UT and saw this one pad natural gas well site and was told it generated significant revenue for the university.  This is from a recent article on the project: &#160; “Since wells on campus started production in 2008, the University of Texas at Arlington has received nearly [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I talked with someone recently that visited the UT and saw this one pad natural gas well site and was told it generated significant revenue for the university.  This is from <a href="http://www.thejambar.com/mobile/news/mining-ysu-1.2735847">a recent article</a><a href="http://www.thejambar.com/mobile/news/mining-ysu-1.2735847"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> on the project:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>“Since wells on campus started production in 2008, the University of Texas at Arlington has received nearly $10 million in royalty payments,” said Kristin Sullivan, assistant vice president for media relations at UTA.</em></p>
<p><em>Sullivan explained that UTA was approached by multiple oil and gas companies in 2007 when energy companies realized that the urban centers of Fort Worth and Arlington sat atop the “sweet spot,” an area that has yielded trillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the past decade.</em></p>
<p><em>In 2008, the first six wells on went into production on the north Texas campus.</em></p>
<p><em>The 420-acre UTA campus has 22 natural gas wells and one pad site. The site is located on the southeast corner of campus in downtown Arlington, less than a mile from the Dallas Cowboys Stadium.</em></p>
<p><em>The university receives 27 percent of all natural gas produced. The funds support undergraduate scholarships and graduate fellowships, as well as the retention and recruitment of faculty and staff.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Elliot Lake Ontario Versus Wood Buffalo, Alberta</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5494</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jul 2012 16:11:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[My upcoming column in the Economy Lab looks at reliance on government transfer income (i.e. CPP, OAS, EI, social assistance, etc.) and income taxes generated to come up with communities that are &#8216;have&#8217; (i.e. contributing more but taking out less) and have-not.  This is a different take on our traditional view of have and have-not [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My upcoming column in the Economy Lab looks at reliance on government transfer income (i.e. CPP, OAS, EI, social assistance, etc.) and income taxes generated to come up with communities that are &#8216;have&#8217; (i.e. contributing more but taking out less) and have-not.  This is a different take on our traditional view of have and have-not at the provincial level but I think it is an important analysis because you end up with places like Halifax as a &#8216;have&#8217; urban centre in a &#8216;have-not&#8217; province.  Halifax contributes much more than the national average in terms of average income taxes paid per taxfiler and takes out much less in terms of government transfer income per dollar of employment income.</p>
<p>Of course the analysis doesn&#8217;t look at broader factors such as direct government payroll (which supports income in government towns) or public spending.</p>
<p>You can view a document showing all of Canada&#8217;s CMAs and CAs for these two metrics by clicking <a href="http://www.jupia.ca/reliancetaxesgeneratedtable2010.pdf">here</a><a href="http://www.jupia.ca/reliancetaxesgeneratedtable2010.pdf"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>.</p>
<p>The comparison of the two bookends in Canada &#8211; Elliot Lake, Ontario and Wood Buffalo, Alberta is shown below.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>PS &#8211; it&#8217;s taxfiler not &#8216;taxfile&#8217; as shown in the source under the tables.  Can&#8217;t edit the jpg.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/elliot.jpg" alt="" width="475" height="430" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/elliot2.jpg" alt="" width="475" height="430" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/Elliot3.jpg" alt="" width="476" height="186" /></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Looking at New Brunswick&#8217;s collective &#8216;paycheque&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5489</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5489#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jul 2012 13:11:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I have been writing lately about how New Brunswickers are far more reliant on government than ever before but it seems more and more are tuning out or becoming increasing cynical. Certainly we are more reliant on government as a direct source of provincial income than a generation ago. The following tables show the number [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have been writing lately about how New Brunswickers are far more reliant on government than ever before but it seems more and more are tuning out or becoming increasing cynical.</p>
<p>Certainly we are more reliant on government as a direct source of provincial income than a generation ago.</p>
<p>The following tables show the number of persons collecting income by source and the total amount of income collected by that source.</p>
<p>In 2010, 585,000 NBers received income from at least one source (essentially they filed a tax return showing income).  That is over 90% of all adults in the province.    That includes those who work full time, work part time, collect income from a retirement source/pension, investment or money direct from government.</p>
<p>Almost 420,000 New Brunswickers received income from the a government transfer.  More people declared income from a government source than declared employment income (418,280 earned employment income).</p>
<p>You can&#8217;t sum up the totals under the government transfers category because people can declare income from more than one source.</p>
<p>A few interesting points that align with recent trends we see elsewhere in the economy.  There has been a decline in the number of persons early self-employment income and the total amount of income from self-employment has actually declined if you adjusted for inflation over the 10 year period.   I can&#8217;t get a straight answer from folks that might know as to why this trend is occuring.  Both the number of self-employed persons and total self-employment income has been increasing across Canada.</p>
<p>The steep drop in the number of persons reporting investment income is concerning.  As the population ages, we would like to see more, not less, declared investment income.  However, the recession bit into investment income across Canada.</p>
<p>The decline in social assistance recipients and income is a 20 year trend and this is what is causing concern among some who study the EI changes.  It has been proposed that seasonal work/EI has replaced for a certain percentage of the population what would have been social assistance in the past.  If that postulate holds, the concern is that maybe 20,000 or more people will eventually go back on the social assistance rolls as the result of the changes.    This is a theory, but a plausible one.</p>
<p>If you want to know how the regions within New Brunswick fare on the reliance on government income scale, there is a table below.  If you want the full list of Canadian CMA/CA areas,<a href="http://www.jupia.ca/income.pdf"> click here</a><a href="http://www.jupia.ca/income.pdf"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> for a PDF version.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/income.jpg" alt="" width="567" height="587" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/income2.jpg" alt="" width="566" height="589" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/nb3.jpg" alt="" width="352" height="432" /></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Deconstructing the sources of economic growth</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5483</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jul 2012 14:52:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In my TJ column tomorrow I will be taking another stab at the question I am frequently confronted with &#8211; why does the government attract multinational firms when the focus should be on New Brunswick small businesses.  This has been the number one question I have received over the years and I have had a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my TJ column tomorrow I will be taking another stab at the question I am frequently confronted with &#8211; why does the government attract multinational firms when the focus should be on New Brunswick small businesses.  This has been the number one question I have received over the years and I have had a devil of a time trying to explain it.</p>
<p>The simple answer is that 95% of all small businesses generate their revenue in their local economy &#8211; lawyers, accountants, doctors&#8217; offices, coffee shops, electricians, etc.   In order for one lawyer to generate more revenue, he/she needs to take the work from someone else.  These multinationals coming into the province (be clear I am talking about the ones brought in by an organization such as Invest NB not Walmart or Costco&#8217;s local retail operation), are almost exclusively export-based businesses meaning that their economic activity will bring money into New Brunswick and grow the economy.    Then lawyers, doctors&#8217; offices, coffee shops and electricians will have a bigger pie to fight over.</p>
<p>If you compare NB to the strongest economy in Canada &#8211; Alberta, you get a clearer understanding of this.   Look at the GDP created in export-intensive sectors of the Alberta economy compared to New Brunswick.  That has huge spillover effects into other sectors of the economy that are more locally oriented.   Note that the sectors where the GDP spread is the lowest &#8211; public administration, health care, utilities and education are those sectors that are primarily publicly funded.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/GDPpercapita.jpg" alt="" width="522" height="574" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>New Brunswick doesn&#8217;t generate as much GDP from exports as we are told.    We constantly hear that New Brunswick is one of the most export heavy provinces or states in North America.  That is true but there is a huge difference between exports and GDP particularly in the oil refining sector which gobbles up 68 percent of the total value of product exports.</p>
<p>We don&#8217;t have the New Brunswick data because it is suppressed but the Ontario data is very revealing. In 2008, the petroleum and coal products manufacturing sector [NAICS 324] in Ontario generated $22.4 billion worth of industry output but only $1.3 billion worth of GDP.   If you don’t believe these numbers, you can check out CANSIM tables 381-0015 and 381-0016 yourself <a href="http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/home-accueil?lang=eng">here</a><a href="http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/home-accueil?lang=eng"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>.</p>
<p>This doesn&#8217;t downplay the importance of the oil refinery in Saint John.  If it generates $500 million worth of GDP that is still a huge number but you can&#8217;t compare that to the $7.5 billion worth of exports in 2008.</p>
<p>All this to say that New Brunswick shouldn&#8217;t focus on exports <em>per se</em> but on GDP from export activity.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>NB Power &#8211; the new NBTel?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5480</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2012 11:29:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I got an email yesterday from someone close to the NB Power deal with Siemens telling me that this had the potential to be NBTel-like in that it would lead to a number of New Brunswick IT firms building products and services in support of the smart grid. Let&#8217;s be clear about this. It will [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I got an email yesterday from someone close to the NB Power deal with Siemens telling me that this had the potential to be NBTel-like in that it would lead to a number of New Brunswick IT firms building products and services in support of the smart grid.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s be clear about this. It will be a cost to the New Brunswick taxpayer.  The NB Power President said &#8216;several million dollars per year&#8217;.  That flows through power rates to the NB taxpayer.</p>
<p>There is a reason why smart grid has not been widely deployed &#8211; it costs a lot of money.</p>
<p>You will have to talk to someone like Rob Hoadley to understand the full dynamics of this but building intelligence into the grid and deploying the necessary devices in homes and businesses will be costly.</p>
<p>But I am not opposed to this &#8211; particularly if there are broader benefits than just helping NB Power overcome its Achilles Heal of peak winter heating.</p>
<p>There wasn&#8217;t much reason for NBTel to make many of the investments it did either.  Some failed, some were successful but in the end we know that NBTel&#8217;s investments &#8211; paid for by the taxpayer &#8211; at least initially &#8211; through rates &#8211; paid off and helped seed the ICT industry in New Brunswick.</p>
<p>So, the model sounds good.  A world leader in smart grid &#8211; Siemens.  A commitment to working with local NB firms on the development of applications and services that could be exported around the world.  A big and supportive partner in NB Power.  Hopefully, alignment with the Dept. of Economic Development and Invest NB.</p>
<p>Maybe we need research chairs at UNB and UdeM in related fields.  Maybe we need other infrastructure investments.   For sure we need to focus on what is possible and what needs to happen to make this industry grow in New Brunswick.</p>
<p>I hate to be the one to point this out but in the mid 1990s, New Brunswick was a world beater in e-Government.   Now we rank <a href="http://stratfordinstitute.ca/canada-a-digital-nation/#becoming">8th out of 10 provinces </a><a href="http://stratfordinstitute.ca/canada-a-digital-nation/#becoming"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>for e-Government.  And there is little evidence that NB&#8217;s IT firms are building a lot of  exportable e-Gov applications and services.</p>
<p>The point is simple.  Government (or in this case the electricity utility) can &#8216;prime the pump&#8217; of an exciting new sector development opportunity by being a lead client.</p>
<p>But it doesn&#8217;t just happen.</p>
<p>If NB Power is to become the new NBTel, it will take a lot of work.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m crossing my fingers.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Integrating new graduate and professional immigrants</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5478</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5478#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jul 2012 15:56:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Got a few questions relating to immigrants who graduate from our universities/colleges and would like to pursue their careers in New Brunswick.  I&#8217;ll put forward a few thoughts on this. If you think about it, networks matter &#8211; informal and formal &#8211; when it comes to professional employment.  I left New Brunswick for six years [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Got a few questions relating to immigrants who graduate from our universities/colleges and would like to pursue their careers in New Brunswick.  I&#8217;ll put forward a few thoughts on this.</p>
<p>If you think about it, networks matter &#8211; informal and formal &#8211; when it comes to professional employment.  I left New Brunswick for six years to go to university and when I came back in 1991 it was brutal.  The recruiter at NBTel told me outright they prefer people with degrees from local or Canadian universities.   After a long search process, I ended up getting a job because a cousin knew someone and got me in to a job for a three month contract which started my eventual career.</p>
<p>Immigrants face potentially greater hurdles (remember I am talking about professionals that don&#8217;t have a job lined up &#8211; the front line service and manufacturing  immigrant workers are brought in specifically for those jobs).    They have virtually no networks and other resume issues.</p>
<p>The Greater Halifax Partnership used to have a formal immigrant networking program where leaders in the Halifax business community would agree to introduce a group of immigrants to at least five different other business leaders and facilitate a formal discussion.  This was a deliberate process to create networks.  This might be something we should formalize here in NB &#8211; although I know it goes on informally.  Any new graduate or professional immigrant looking for a job would connect with the program and get at least five doors opened.</p>
<p>We should also do more immigrant internships.   Ambitious young immigrant MBAs could work in a firm or organization with no strings just to get experience and as a trial run.</p>
<p>We should also look at linking up immigrant professionals with the startup/entrepreneurial crowd.  Many could be interested in the startup environment and just need an intro into that world.</p>
<p>When New Brunswickers get their heads around the reality that several thousand immigrants per year is a likely outcome within a few short years, we should be putting the systems in place to make sure there is as much retention and integration into the workforce as possible.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Intellectual laziness and public policy</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5474</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5474#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Jul 2012 09:44:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[We live in an age of unprecedented access to information, decision support tools and expert opinion.   When I started in my career more than 20 years ago, I had to get Statistics Canada data by going to the UNB library and photocopying relevant data.  Now, I have CANSIM at my fingertips.    I had [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We live in an age of unprecedented access to information, decision support tools and expert opinion.   When I started in my career more than 20 years ago, I had to get Statistics Canada data by going to the UNB library and photocopying relevant data.  Now, I have CANSIM at my fingertips.    I had to manually read through old editions of Time, Macleans, etc. to look for interesting information that would help us make the case for investment into New Brunswick.  Now, I can keyword search tens of thousands of publications in an instant.</p>
<p>I have no hard data on this but the &#8216;expert opinion&#8217; industry seems to have ballooned in recent years, too.    From 1996 to 2006, the number of persons working in the occupation &#8220;E03 Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants&#8221; across Canada skyrocketed from 104,030 to 167,920 &#8211; a 61 percent increase in just a decade.  Although for Andy Scott and others worried about New Brunswick, the number of people in this occupation actually declined in New Brunswick from 2,490 to 2,475.</p>
<p>And yet when it comes to the biggest public policy issue of our time, it seems to me that more than ever we want to simplify and boil things down to simple &#8216;good&#8217; or &#8216;bad&#8217; constructs.    Following Gladwell&#8217;s Blink, we make up our minds on these issues in a flash based on an article or conversation in one of Mike Murphy&#8217;s coffee shops.</p>
<p>I much prefer sober second thought.   When you are first confronted with an issue &#8211; no matter how it looks to you at first glance &#8211; take the time to back away and study the issue from all sides before drawing conclusions.</p>
<p>New Brunswick is facing some big time public policy challenges these days including shale gas development, immigration, an aging population, managing health care costs and expectations &#8211; even bilingualism is back in the debate ring in some quarters.  We don&#8217;t need snap judgments.  We need sober second thought.</p>
<p>And we need expert opinion to provide us with good analysis of these issues.  So many of our experts from think tanks to trusted public figures draw their conclusions aligned with a hard ideological viewpoint.   When someone breaks this tendency, it seems to be an exception not the rule.</p>
<p>I understand there is no &#8216;pure&#8217; analysis.  We are all guided by our personal histories and influences.  But there must be somewhere out there reasonably objective analysis.  In the halls of academia  - somewhere.</p>
<p>For example, when the Association of Consulting Engineering Companies – New Brunswick says its supports “responsible” <a href="http://dcnonl.com/article/id51170/--new-brunswick-shale-gas-on-engineer-radar">development of the shale gas sector</a><a href="http://dcnonl.com/article/id51170/--new-brunswick-shale-gas-on-engineer-radar"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> &#8211; that gives me some comfort that we might be able to do this without creating a&#8217;burned out, industrial wasteland (actual quote in the TJ from a prominent NB environmentalist).  Because I don&#8217;t know about you but I have no real interest in supporting anything that will create a burned out, industrial wasteland.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a kind of intellectual laziness to want to boil complex issues down to a simple binary choice.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Where will the EI changes have the greatest impact?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5470</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5470#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jul 2012 12:29:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Where will the EI changes have the greatest impact?  The Mowat Centre has been writing op/eds and analysis insinuating the impact will be greatest in Western Canada but if you read carefully &#8211; they say at the &#8216;individual&#8217; level.  I don&#8217;t particularly take issue with that conclusion but I think most of us are interested [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Where will the EI changes have the greatest impact?  The Mowat Centre has been writing op/eds and analysis insinuating the impact will be greatest in Western Canada but if you read carefully &#8211; they say at the &#8216;individual&#8217; level.  I don&#8217;t particularly take issue with that conclusion but I think most of us are interested in the impact at the community or regional level.  Because Atlantic Canada &#8211; particularly rural Atlantic Canada &#8211; is so dependent on the EI program, it would virtually impossible to conclude the overall impact of the changes will be greater in Alberta than in a place like New Brunswick.</p>
<p>In an upcoming commentary, I conclude:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;The Mowat Centre would be wise to come to Atlantic Canada and do a little more research into on-the-ground realities in the region.  In New Brunswick, for example, decades of out-migration – particularly among young people in rural parts of the province &#8211; is leading to increasing shortages of workers in retail services, accommodation, food service and even transportation.  </em></p>
<p><em>Under the old EI rules, workers in manufacturing, construction or primary industries would not have been required to take jobs in these other sectors.  Now, under a strict interpretation of the rules, not only will they have to take these jobs but at as much as 30 percent lower wages than they earned before.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/frequent.jpg" alt="" width="540" height="616" /></p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/highestusers.jpg" alt="" width="520" height="556" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/lowestusers.jpg" alt="" width="513" height="560" /></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Vancouver: Complacent about rapid growth? Lessons for NB?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5467</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5467#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jul 2012 10:30:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I love following the debates that go on in other cities across Canada.  Take Vancouver, ex-City Planners are &#8216;concerned&#8217; that the current leadership is not doing enough to prepare the city for the rapid growth expected over the next 40 years.  The article states that Metro Vancouver (the CMA) is expected to grow to around [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I love following the debates that go on in other cities across Canada.  Take Vancouver, <a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/business/City+hall+complacent+about+future/6944731/story.html">ex-City Planners are &#8216;concerned&#8217;</a><a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/business/City+hall+complacent+about+future/6944731/story.html"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> that the current leadership is not doing enough to prepare the city for the rapid growth expected over the next 40 years.  The article states that Metro Vancouver (the CMA) is expected to grow to around seven million by 2050.</p>
<p>The Vancouver CMA has 2.3 million <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_Vancouver">today</a><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_Vancouver"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>.</p>
<p>That is why I had to chuckle when I read this article.</p>
<p>Imagine if Moncton was planning to 420,000 people by 2050?  Or Saint John 400,000 by 2050?  Or how about the Halifax CMA planning to be 1.2 million by 2050?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s just not in our DNA to think like that.</p>
<p>Why not?</p>
<p>Moncton, for example, grew its population by over nine percent from 2006 to 2011.  At that growth rate between here and 2052, the CMA would grow to more than 350,000 people &#8211; based on a proven growth rate (albeit a very short one).</p>
<p>If anyone was really expecting Moncton to grow to 350,000 people in my lifetime (84 in 2052), they would be raising the same red flag as the ex-City Planners in Vancouver.</p>
<p>We just don&#8217;t think that way.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>From Genesys to a revelation:  Local Multinationals are the low hanging fruit</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5463</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5463#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jul 2012 14:14:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I have had the opportunity to do some work with Invest NB so I put my bias on the table but I have to say the folks who are complaining that most of Invest NB&#8217;s announcements have been multinational expansions (i.e. they were in NB already and are now expanding) are misguided. I don&#8217;t understand [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have had the opportunity to do some work with Invest NB so I put my bias on the table but I have to say the folks who are complaining that most of Invest NB&#8217;s announcements have been multinational expansions (i.e. they were in NB already and are now expanding) are misguided.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t understand that gripe.  I have said (and many others too) that in a hard investment attraction market &#8211; with stiff competition &#8211; the best opportunities for growth are those multinational (and local) firms in our own backyard.  I specifically recommended that Invest NB go after the firms already here and try and convince them to expand here and &#8211; it seems they are having some success (Salesforce.com, Thomson Reuters/Elite, now<a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2012.07.0657.html"> Genesys Labs</a><a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2012.07.0657.html"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>, etc.).</p>
<p>The critics say those firms would have expanded anyway.   While I don&#8217;t know the specifics of any of these files, there is nothing that would indicate these firms would have expanded here &#8211; automatically.</p>
<p>Anyone in sales will tell you the best opportunities for a new sale will always be through upselling existing customers.  That&#8217;s why you get harassed by the telephone company to add new services (or at least I do).</p>
<p>A few years ago I completed a project in another province that involved interviewing multinational firms located in a specific city in that province.  Of the dozen or so firms I interviewed, only 2 or 3 had any idea the provincial economic development agency would actually help them pitch head office on the potential of expansion in that city and none &#8211; not one &#8211; had ever got a visit from that provincial economic development agency.  That&#8217;s a strange case to be sure but it does point out the absolute imperative to make sure you comb through your own couch for loose change before you start knocking on the neighbour&#8217;s door.</p>
<p>Invest NB is following the investment attraction playbook.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Everything you ever wanted to know about natural gas</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5459</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5459#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2012 23:47:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Economist magazine has a spectacular special report this week on natural gas.  It covers everything from how the gas market works, to the new technologies used to extract gas to how gas is changing energy markets around the world.  There is also a full section on the risks associated with gas development including environmental concerns. The [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Economist magazine has a <a href="http://www.economist.com/printedition/specialreports?year[value][year]=2012&amp;category=76986">spectacular special report </a><a href="http://www.economist.com/printedition/specialreports?year[value][year]=2012&amp;category=76986"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>this week on natural gas.  It covers everything from how the gas market works, to the new technologies used to extract gas to how gas is changing energy markets around the world.  There is also a full section on the risks associated with gas development including environmental concerns.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/natural_gas_from_shale/fact_sheets/oil_natural_gas_innb.html">NB government estimates </a><a href="http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/natural_gas_from_shale/fact_sheets/oil_natural_gas_innb.html"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a>this province has some 80 trillion cubic feet of shale gas.  Now most of us, including me, don&#8217;t have any idea how much that is but anything measured in the trillions seems large.</p>
<p>Canada&#8217;s total production in 2011 was estimated to be 3.75 trillion cubic feet so by that measure, there is enough gas under New Brunswick to supply the entire Canadian market (and substantial exports) for 21 years.  That&#8217;s a lot of gas.</p>
<p>We don&#8217;t know if it can be extracted.  We don&#8217;t know if there are markets for this gas.  We don&#8217;t know if we will be cut off as shale gas is developed widely elsewhere.    We do know we have the gas.</p>
<p>What do you do when you realize &#8211; in very short order &#8211; that you have a gold mine under your feet?</p>
<p>This is all wild speculation of course but take that 80 Tcf and multiply it by a conservative price of $4.00 per thousand cubic feet &#8211; and you get a revenue stream of $320 billion.  Spread that out over the next 60 years and that would equate to $5.3 billion in revenue per year (in today&#8217;s dollars and assuming $4.00 stays).  That, in turn, would translate into substantial tax revenues per year (through royalties and economic activity) and possibly several thousand good paying jobs direct, indirect and induced.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t want to debate these numbers.  They could be wildly high or low &#8211; the estimated amount of gas is only based on what is known.</p>
<p>This is why I am frustrated that the environmental concerns over hydraulic fracturing have taken up 99 percent of the conversation.   I agree this is the most visceral issue and one that has been pounded by environmental groups, social media and the traditional media but there are other major concerns too such as markets for our gas.    Everyone is racing to attract natural gas investment &#8211; across Western Canada and more than a dozen U.S. states.  We have a large store of it but finding uses at an acceptable price (to buyers and producers) is critical.  Are there potential new uses for our gas?  We have substantial pipeline infrastructure and gas offshore Nova Scotia is likely to be dry within a decade or so.</p>
<p>If we don&#8217;t develop our own gas, we will have to bring it in from the US or from LNG &#8211; and other places get the economic benefit and we just pay the cost.</p>
<p>So let&#8217;s have the debate but I really hope we can expand it to include a broader set of issues.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Labour Market Bonanza!  Stats Stats Stats</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5454</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5454#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2012 15:09:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[For those of you looking for data related to my column on labour market trends in the TJ today, ask and ye shall receive. The following tables show the trends for each of Canada&#8217;s provinces in multiple areas. If you have a specific question, feel free to ask.  The occupational data is based on unadjusted [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those of you looking for data related to my column on labour market trends in the TJ today, ask and ye shall receive. The following tables show the trends for each of Canada&#8217;s provinces in multiple areas. If you have a specific question, feel free to ask.  The occupational data is based on unadjusted data while the rest of the charts are based on seasonally adjusted data.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Employment Growth &#8211; % Change (June 2002 to June 2012)</strong></p>
<table width="437" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316"><strong>Occupations in:</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="71"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">CAN</span></strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="47"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">NB</span></strong></td>
<td width="2"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316">All Areas</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">15%</td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316"><strong>Management</strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>12%</strong></td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>-12%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316">Business, finance and admin.</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">15%</td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316">Natural and applied sciences</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">27%</td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316">Health</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">36%</td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">26%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316">Social science, education, government*</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">34%</td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316"><strong>Art, culture, recreation and sport</strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>24%</strong></td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>-3%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316"><strong>Sales and service</strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>13%</strong></td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>-4%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316">Protective services</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">23%</td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">31%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316">Trades, transport and equipment operation</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">16%</td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60">0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316"><strong>Primary industry</strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>4%</strong></td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>-6%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="316"><strong>Processing, manufacturing and utilities</strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>-30%</strong></td>
<td colspan="3" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="60"><strong>-29%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>*Includes religion. Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (unadjusted data).</em></p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/emp1.jpg" alt="" width="539" height="415" /></p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/emp2.jpg" alt="" width="566" height="445" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/emp3.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="444" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/emp4.jpg" alt="" width="553" height="442" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/emp5.jpg" alt="" width="548" height="436" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/emp6.jpg" alt="" width="551" height="434" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/emp7.jpg" alt="" width="548" height="438" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/emp8.jpg" alt="" width="560" height="436" /></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>Are professionals in New Brunswick slacking off?</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5447</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5447#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jul 2012 02:21:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I am reading that in the United States, the professional class and the wealthy are working far more hours per week than they did a couple of generations ago while the poorer classes are working considerably less hours.  I don&#8217;t have data on that to show here but Charles Murray&#8217;s book Coming Apart &#8211; which [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am reading that in the United States, the professional class and the wealthy are working far more hours per week than they did a couple of generations ago while the poorer classes are working considerably less hours.  I don&#8217;t have data on that to show here but Charles Murray&#8217;s book Coming Apart &#8211; which I recently finished &#8211; has data to back this up.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s hard to extract meaningful data to show if this trend exists in Canada and in New Brunswick but the highest level source &#8211; average hours worked from the Labour Force Survey &#8211; would suggest that we have even a slightly reverse trend going on here.  I stress that is this only one source, small sample sizes and only one data point but it is interesting.</p>
<p>The Labour Force Survey lets us compare hours worked (main job) for a variety of occupational categories and we can compare back to 1987.   Across all occupations and workers, the average weekly hours worked dipped slightly from 1987 to 2011 (-2%).  Interestingly, the the number of people who worked 40 hours a week declined by 6% (the largest number of workers by hours worked) but the number who worked 41 to 49 hours rose by 56%.</p>
<p>When we look at professional occupations &#8211; the average weekly hours dropped by 6% over the period &#8211; the same decline as professional occupations in business and finance.  Natural science and government occupations also saw declines in average weekly hours worked.</p>
<p>Contrast that with clerical jobs, trades, machine operators and several other lower wage/skill occupations which saw an increase in average hours worked.</p>
<p>While the sample sizes are small, there is some interest data within the hours worked categories, too.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table width="521" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Total employed, all occupations (10)</strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><strong>2011</strong></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 27,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">42%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 24,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">23%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 48,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">46%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 43,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">22%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 54,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">53%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 71,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-6%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 42,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">56%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 39,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">20%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">36.1</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-2%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Management occupations [A] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">43%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">130%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">38%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">75%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 6,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">18%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 4,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">104%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 5,800</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">4%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">41.3</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-6%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Other management occupations [A1-A3] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">46%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">133%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">42%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">89%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 5,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">23%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 4,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">109%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 5,500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">6%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">41.3</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-6%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Teachers and professors [E1 E130] (12)</strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">18%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">50%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">44%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,200</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-14%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">113%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,800</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-28%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">111%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">40%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">38.4</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">2%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Professional occupations in business and finance [B0] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> n/a</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">150%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">156%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">56%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">36.6</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-6%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Natural and applied sciences and related occupations [C] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,200</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">100%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">183%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">100%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 4,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">87%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 5,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">46%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">136%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,200</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">100%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">38.6</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-2%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Occupations in social science, government service and religion [E0 E2] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">10%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">82%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">73%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">173%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">35%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,200</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">100%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">17%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">34.3</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-3%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Health occupations [D] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">88%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">86%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 4,500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">73%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 4,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">116%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 7,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">37%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">35%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">238%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">50%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">34.5</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-3%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Business, finance and administrative occupations [B] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 5,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">75%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">3%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 9,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">45%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 9,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">18%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 16,800</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">46%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 12,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">3%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 5,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">76%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">14%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">34.1</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">1%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport [F] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> n/a</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">50%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,200</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">71%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">80%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">83%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">0%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> n/a</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">31.1</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-6%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Sales and service occupations [G] (11)</strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 6,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">65%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 11,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">17%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 20,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">39%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 11,800</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">24%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 10,800</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">44%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 17,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-1%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 6,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">15%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 4,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-22%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">30.5</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-4%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Clerical occupations, including supervisors [B4-B5] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,800</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">81%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-20%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 5,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">69%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 5,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">39%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 10,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">84%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 7,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">23%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">88%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">57%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">34</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">3%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Financial, secretarial and administrative occupations [B1-B3] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,200</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">20%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">30%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,300</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-12%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,200</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-33%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,800</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-21%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-39%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">10%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 500</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-50%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">32.7</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-5%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Machine operators and assemblers in manufacturing, including supervisors [J0-J2] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-13%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> n/a</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">n/a</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 700</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">0%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-29%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 1,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">0%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-31%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">55%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">110%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">41.8</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">7%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69"></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403"><strong>Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations [H] </strong></td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">000s</span></p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1987-2011</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">0 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-3%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">1 to 14 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 2,200</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">38%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">15 to 29 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 3,800</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">27%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">30 to 34 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 6,400</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-6%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">35 to 39 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 4,100</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">41%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">40 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 16,900</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">-20%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">41 to 49 hours (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 10,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">41%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">50 hours or more (x 1,000) (2)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right"> 12,600</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">40%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="403">Average actual hours (worked in reference week, main job) (hours)</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="69">
<p align="right">41.6</p>
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="49">
<p align="right">2%</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The Maritimes are on the IT Capital Merry-Go-Round</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5444</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5444#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 10:46:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5444</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The announcement that Salesforce.com is buying a Halifax firm is very interesting.  I encourage you to click on the link because the owners of that firm can&#8217;t be much older than their mid 20s.  $70 million richer today. I still remember the wariness that some government and business types had towards the initial Salesforce.com purchase [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The<a href="http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/115321-salesforcecom-to-buy-halifax-startup-goinstant"> announcement that Salesforce.com is buying a Halifax firm</a><a href="http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/115321-salesforcecom-to-buy-halifax-startup-goinstant"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> is very interesting.  I encourage you to click on the link because the owners of that firm can&#8217;t be much older than their mid 20s.  $70 million richer today.</p>
<p>I still remember the wariness that some government and business types had towards the initial Salesforce.com purchase of Radian6.  Now they have announced 300 new jobs in New Brunswick and are moving into Nova Scotia.</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t underestimate the importance of this region being on the North American IT investment capital carousel.   This is a huge merry-go-round with investment capital getting on and off where new opportunities are identified.</p>
<p>This region has not really been on this carousel.  There have been a few deals but we haven&#8217;t seen the coveted momentum.</p>
<p>We may now be seeing momentum.</p>
<p>It is true that some analysts think that Salesforce.com is buying up these small firms to position itself as an acquisition target by an IT industry giant.   It could be that at some point in the future, this firm&#8217;s operations in the Maritimes could wither.    I don&#8217;t happen to believe that but it is certainly possible.</p>
<p>But it doesn&#8217;t matter.  Radian6 or GoInstant or Chalk Media or Whitehill Technologies &#8211; whatever firm &#8211; could have just as easily gone under and destroyed all that value.  Now we have tens of millions worth of new capital sloshing around the IT industry in the Maritimes.  Hopefully some of it will find its way into other new startups and voila we have Simba&#8217;s circle of life.</p>
<p>While I am popping Rolaids reading and talking about LIBOR and how Wall Streeters are gaming the system to make a few bucks, I am raising a glass of Champagne to an other kind of investor &#8211; one that is willing to invest in IT firms and engage in the pure risk of a capitalist world.   Some of these investments will go south &#8211; some will prosper but at least these latter investors have a clean conscience.  Those who would game the system and shaft the rest of us so they can buy their next Porsche should be ashamed.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>One-and-a-half cheers for capitalism</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5441</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5441#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 10:31:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5441</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I watched The Secret of My Success last night while on the treadmill and it&#8217;s  a pretty good movie if you can get beyond the David Foster anthems and cheezy hair styles of the 1980s &#8211; what were we thinking? After reading about the LIBOR scandal and all the other corporate malfeasance we see these [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I watched The Secret of My Success last night while on the treadmill and it&#8217;s  a pretty good movie if you can get beyond the David Foster anthems and cheezy hair styles of the 1980s &#8211; what were we thinking?</p>
<p>After reading about the LIBOR scandal and all the other corporate malfeasance we see these days its nice to watch a movie that &#8211; while tackling bad corporate behaviour &#8211; still at its core is about the importance of ambition, hard work and capitalism.</p>
<p>One of the foundations of our society is the assumption that we operate on a widely agreed upon moral platform.  This concept goes back to John Locke (and likely before).  It means that we all more or less agree to the rules of the road and that people that violate these rules get punished.  Specifically, we all agree that some stuff is wrong &#8211; morally wrong &#8211; regardless of its legality.  It doesn&#8217;t matter what legal framework you have &#8211; if everyone is going around killing people &#8211; laws become irrelevant.  You have to live in a society where the vast &#8211; vast majority of folks believe that it is morally wrong to kill people and just won&#8217;t do it.  For the 0.01 percent that don&#8217;t agree, there needs to be laws in place to deter and punish.</p>
<p>The same applies to the rules of the role on the economy.    If a wide swathe of people believe the only rule is &#8216;don&#8217;t get caught&#8217; &#8211; we will end up with a dysfunctional system.    We need bankers and business leaders (and government leaders) with a moral spine &#8211; they will do the right thing regardless of whether or not they can &#8216;get away with it&#8217;.</p>
<p>Imagine if our engineers decided to move off this principle and worked on the premise of &#8216;everything goes as long as you don&#8217;t get caught&#8217;.    I have seen collapsing buildings in the third world as a result of that principle.</p>
<p>Imagine if doctors didn&#8217;t have a broad code of accepted conduct.</p>
<p>It now seems quite laughable that those big US business schools introduced the &#8216;code of conduct&#8217; for graduates.</p>
<p>We need business leaders and finance professionals with a moral basis underpinning their business activities.  There will always be bad apples but 99% of people need to play by the rules.</p>
<p>I refuse to believe in the narrative that says the money motive is just too powerful and that people will always do whatever it takes to maximize their wealth.    Greed is a powerful motivator but it can eat away your soul.</p>
<p>If you haven&#8217;t been following the<a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21558281"> LIBOR scandal</a><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21558281"><img style='border:0;' src='http://davidwcampbell.com/wp-content/plugins/tensai-rss/external.png'/></a> - you  might want to take some Gravol before reading about it.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>At the end of the day, I still believe in the merits of market capitalism where cronyism is limited by free markets and we take some proceeds from the market activity to pay for public services and the social safety net.     For those who disagree, they have yet to propose a model that makes sense.   A model that is 90% government dominated (directly or indirectly) is also open to deep corruption not to mention inefficiency.  A model that is dominated by oligopolies &#8211; also leads to sub-par outcomes.</p>
<p>We need honest entrepreneurs focused on creating new value for consumers and then taking that into the market.  Firms that can&#8217;t compete fall away.  New firms emerge.   The legal framework needs to be in place to discourage those who prefer to find an easier way to make a buck.</p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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		<title>The growth rate among retirees claiming pension income is in decline</title>
		<link>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5433</link>
		<comments>http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5433#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jul 2012 11:48:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://davidwcampbell.com/?p=5433</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the issues of concern to people like me is the lack of personal savings in New Brunswick and the potential impact on the economy in the years ahead. Like most provinces, historically many New Brunswickers could count on pension income but we know in recent years, the private sector has been moving away [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the issues of concern to people like me is the lack of personal savings in New Brunswick and the potential impact on the economy in the years ahead.</p>
<p>Like most provinces, historically many New Brunswickers could count on pension income but we know in recent years, the private sector has been moving away from offering formal pensions and even the public sector is slowly moving in that direction.</p>
<p>I have been looking through the 2010 Neighbourhood Income data from Statistics Canada and it looks like the growth in the number of persons claiming pension income crested in the mid 2000s. Until then, the number of persons claiming pension income was steadily on the rise.   These are not large numbers (around 2,000 persons per year) but it is interesting.  At the same time, the number of persons claiming the old age security income has been steadily on the rise and as of 2010 there were 1.5 new persons claiming OAS income for every one new person claiming pension income.  Back in 2003, there was 0.75 new persons claiming OAS for every one new person claiming pension income.</p>
<p>This just confirms that more and more people are retiring (expected) while increasingly fewer of them are on formal pensions (anticipated).</p>
<p>This is likely going to get worse in the coming years and with low levels of both RRSP and investment income this will have ripple effects across the economy.   It will push down the average income among seniors meaning less spending, less taxes and more hardship.</p>
<p>READING THIS CHART:  This chart shows the incremental increase in persons reporting OAS and Pension income from 2003 to 2010.  In 2010, a total of 88,140 persons claimed pension income and 119,290 claimed OAS income.  See my column in tomorrow&#8217;s TJ for more details.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.jupia.ca/pension.jpg" alt="" width="606" height="409" /></p>
<div>Original post in: <a href="http://davidwcampbell.com">It's The Economy, Stupid</a></div>
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