The changing rural/urban employment landscape: It’s not what you might expect

Someone asked me to provide employment trends in urban and rural areas and the source.  The source is shown below the tables.

These tables show the employment change (percentage change) between 2006 and 2013 for urban and rural labour markets across Canada.

New Brunswick ranks dead last in Canada for the growth of employment in its CMAs and CAs (Moncton, Fredericton, SJ, Bathurst, Miramichi, Campbellton and Edmundston).  In fact, there has been a 5% decline in total employment over the seven year period among the labour force aged 25-44 in New Brunswick.  I think this is the biggest problem.  The two main drivers of employment growth in Canada are natural resources (rural) and professional/creative occupations (urban).  Right now, NB seems to have neither.

Among non-CMA/CAs – everywhere else – New Brunswick ranks third from the bottom for the total adult population but last among the population 25-44 which has seen employment drop by 20% in just seven years.

Among hard core rural, the third table, again NB ranks last in Canada among the 10 provinces.   There is lots to unpack here if we dug deeper but suffice it to say that the substantial non-CMA/CA growth in Quebec could be people moving out of the cities into rural areas and then commuting back into the cities.  I have done some other analysis that would suggest this.  The rural employment growth in Alberta, Newfoundland and Saskatchewan is due in large part to natural resources development.

Census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations (% change 2006-2013)

15 years and over 25 to 44 years 45 years and over
Alberta 17% 20% 25%
Saskatchewan 17% 18% 23%
Prince Edward Island 13% -1% 33%
British Columbia 10% 5% 21%
Manitoba 9% 2% 23%
Canada 9% 4% 20%
Newfoundland and Labrador 9% 0% 23%
Ontario 8% 0% 22%
Quebec 6% 1% 15%
Nova Scotia 2% -7% 17%
New Brunswick 2% -5% 17%

 

Non-census metropolitan areas and non-census agglomerations (% change 2006-2013)

 

15 years and over 25 to 44 years 45 years and over
Quebec 14% 0% 26%
Alberta 9% 5% 20%
Newfoundland and Labrador 8% -11% 25%
Saskatchewan 5% 0% 15%
Nova Scotia 4% -13% 29%
Manitoba 4% 6% 2%
Canada 4% -6% 17%
Prince Edward Island 3% -11% 21%
New Brunswick -2% -20% 22%
Ontario -3% -15% 12%
British Columbia -9% -13% 1%

 

Rural and small towns* (% change 2006-2013)
15 years and over 25 to 44 years 45 years and over
Newfoundland and Labrador 17% 2% 30%
Quebec 17% 5% 27%
Alberta 11% 12% 19%
Saskatchewan 11% 5% 21%
Prince Edward Island 11% -6% 32%
Canada 6% -4% 18%
Nova Scotia 5% -13% 30%
Manitoba 4% 3% 5%
Ontario -1% -15% 15%
British Columbia -4% -11% 7%
New Brunswick -5% -18% 13%

 

*Includes: Rural fringe around urban centres, small towns and rural areas.

Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 282-0119 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by urban and rural areas based on 2006 census boundaries, sex and age group, annual (persons unless otherwise noted)(1,2)

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2 Responses to The changing rural/urban employment landscape: It’s not what you might expect

  1. The employment picture is bleak enough. When you add in differences in income growth, then things are even bleaker.

    http://nbdatapoints.ca/labour-force-and-employment-in-new-brunswick-1994-2014/

    I am not sure I see much evidence that any political party in NB has a realistic strategy to address these problems.

  2. Duane says:

    The tables may not say what they look like. The border of urban and rural employment is not clear now. This is partly caused by the movement of people from core urban areas to suburb or even rural areas.

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