Statistics Canada has been estimating population every year since 2006 based on births/deaths, migration and immigration data (I think the base year is 2001 but someone can correct me on this). The Stats agency had estimated that the NB population grew by nearly 10,000 from 2006 to 2011. The Census tells us that we actually grew by 21,000 from 2006 to 2011. The key question is – are we younger or older than we thought?
Again, from the estimates, we are expected to have witnessed a population explosion in the age group 60 and older. While the overall population was supposed to have grown by 9,800, the 60+ demographic was supposed to have grown by over 27,000 (or 18 percent). The younger demographic groups were all in strong decline mode (according to the estimates).
It is possible the difference between the 10k (est.) and the 21k (Census) could be younger. The immigrant population has tended to be younger than average. However, I have looked at the migration data and it is still showing net outflows among the younger groups – for the most part. I don’t have through 2011, however.
My guess is that the 10k more population we were not expecting will be skewed slightly towards the older demographic. In other words, we probably have more than 30k additional 60+ folks around and maybe not quite as bad in the decline in the younger demographic groups.
Estimated Population Change by Age Group 2006-2011
Source: Statistics Canada.