Health care math: NB edition

“…New Brunswick has nearly 50 per cent more elderly people in its population compared to Alberta and there will be no accounting for this fact in federal health transfers.”

Someone sent me an email questioning my math so here is the raw data.  In the column I say Alberta has 15.3 persons over the age of 60 per 100 in the population when the actual number is 15.7 (a slight difference) but the 50% figure remains the same.

As I have said before, we don’t have good data (public) on the cost of health care per person over the age of 60 but we do know the majority of spending occurs later in life.  Ergo, NB is at a distinct disadvantage in this area.

Ah, do you remember the good old days when Ralph Klein was threatening to opt out of federal health care dollars altogether?  Good times.

Population 60+ – NB Versus Alberta

New Brunswick

Alberta

All ages

751,800

3,845,000

  60 to 64 years

53,200

187,700

  65 to 69 years

39,100

130,700

  70 to 74 years

28,800

95,200

  75 to 79 years

22,000

76,600

  80 to 84 years

16,300

58,100

  85 to 89 years

10,900

35,200

  90 to 94 years

4,900

15,400

  95 to 99 years

1,200

4,100

  100 years and over

200

500

Population 60+

176,600

603,500

Per 100 total population

23.5

15.7

NB higher than AB

50%

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 052-0005 – Projected population, by projection scenario, sex and age group.

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3 Responses to Health care math: NB edition

  1. Mike E. says:

    To show what the real worry is, you should take this out ten or fifteen years to when the largest hump of the baby boom hits the 60+ category.

  2. Mike E. says:

    Since I was bored and I already had the tables. here is the medium growth scenario for NB. Year, over 60, total pop, and the ratio.
    2010 171.5 752.6 0.227876694
    2011 176.9 756.1 0.233963761
    2012 182.6 759.2 0.240516333
    2013 188.6 762.6 0.247311828
    2014 194.9 766 0.254438642
    2015 201.1 768.9 0.261542463
    2016 207.3 772 0.268523316
    2017 213.6 775 0.275612903
    2018 220.3 778.6 0.282943745
    2019 226 781.6 0.289150461
    2020 232.1 784.3 0.295932679
    2021 238.4 787.4 0.302768606
    2022 244.4 790.7 0.309093209
    2023 250.7 793.8 0.315822625
    2024 256.3 796.4 0.321823204
    2025 261.8 799.1 0.327618571
    2026 266.3 801.9 0.332086295
    2027 269.9 804.5 0.335487881
    2028 273.1 806.7 0.33853973
    2029 276 809.3 0.341035463
    2030 278.8 811.3 0.343646
    2031 281.6 813.4 0.346201131
    2032 284.2 815.2 0.348626104
    2033 286.1 817 0.350183599
    2034 287.7 818.7 0.351410773
    2035 289.4 821 0.352496955
    2036 290.7 822.3 0.353520613

    here is the same for Alberta
    2010 575.8 3739.1 0.153994277
    2011 599.6 3789.9 0.158209979
    2012 624.8 3840.7 0.162678678
    2013 652.6 3892.8 0.167642828
    2014 682.2 3944.3 0.172958446
    2015 713.6 3995.5 0.178600926
    2016 746 4046.1 0.184375077
    2017 778.8 4096.3 0.190122794
    2018 812.2 4146.1 0.195894937
    2019 845.5 4194.3 0.201583101
    2020 879.7 4242.6 0.207349267
    2021 913.7 4290.5 0.212958863
    2022 947.5 4338.5 0.218393454
    2023 981.7 4385.5 0.223851328
    2024 1014.2 4431.7 0.228851231
    2025 1044.7 4478.4 0.233275277
    2026 1070.9 4523.8 0.236725762
    2027 1095.6 4569.3 0.239774145
    2028 1119.8 4614 0.242696142
    2029 1144.1 4658.9 0.245572989
    2030 1168.6 4703.1 0.24847441
    2031 1193.6 4746.8 0.251453611
    2032 1216.5 4790.5 0.25394009
    2033 1238.8 4833.7 0.256284006
    2034 1260.3 4877.4 0.258395867
    2035 1282.5 4921.1 0.260612465
    2036 1304.5 4963.6 0.262813281

  3. Raymond Bodin says:

    there is another easy conclusion: New Brunswickers are twice as likely to get to be 100 than Albertans (divide the number of 100 yr olds over the total population)………..

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