Are we heading towards another recession?

It seemed to me the news yesterday that Canada’s GDP declined in the latest quarter was met with a yawn.  One more quarter of negative growth and it is called a recession – or in this case a double dip recession.  Reading the coverage in the Globe it seems that a lot of experts are saying this isn’t the start of a new recession but it does seem to reinforce our reliance on the American market.    The TSX was up strongly on the news.  Go figure.  Rumour and speculation of economic trouble ahead can spook the market into a 1000 point decline but the actual release of a negative GDP growth quarter can lead to a strong increase in the TSX.

I don’t have the most recent month, but in June, year over year exports from New Brunswick were up strongly (47%) led by a huge increase in the value of exported petroleum.  Excluding petroleum products, export growth was a strong 22% year over year.

International Exports from New Brunswick (June 2011 vs. June 2010) – in $millions

2010 June 2011 June % Change
32411 – Petroleum Refineries $597.3 $974.0 63%
31171 – Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging $79.3 $82.8 4%
21239 – Other Non-Metallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying $36.6 $67.6 85%
21111 – Oil and Gas Extraction $22.4 $55.2 146%
32211 – Pulp Mills $43.9 $44.0 0%
32212 – Paper Mills $35.3 $32.6 -8%
31141 – Frozen Food Manufacturing $12.4 $27.2 119%
32111 – Sawmills and Wood Preservation $21.7 $21.5 -1%
33149 – Non-Ferrous Metal Rolling, Drawing, etc $18.8 $17.1 -9%
21223 – Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc Ore Mining $15.5 $15.9 3%
11411 – Fishing $9.8 $15.1 53%
41811 – Recyclable Metal Wholesaler-Distributors $0.4 $12.0 3073%
33999 – All Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing $20.4 $9.0 -56%
11251 – Animal Aquaculture $10.6 $8.0 -24%
32213 – Paperboard Mills $7.9 $6.8 -13%
22111 – Electric Power Generation $4.7 $6.6 41%
11121 – Vegetable and Melon Farming $2.5 $6.5 163%
33699 – Other Transportation Equipment Manufacturing $2.6 $5.1 94%
32531 – Fertilizer Manufacturing $0.5 $4.6 766%
32221 – Paperboard Container Manufacturing $3.4 $4.2 25%
31212 – Breweries $3.4 $3.5 5%
32619 – Other Plastic Product Manufacturing $2.7 $3.4 26%
32121 – Veneer, Plywood and Engineered Wood Products $4.1 $3.1 -25%
32199 – All Other Wood Product Manufacturing $2.5 $2.2 -10%
11142 – Nursery and Floriculture Production $0.8 $1.0 21%
SUB-TOTAL $959.5 $1,429.1 49%
OTHERS $40.3 $36.6 -9%
TOTAL (ALL INDUSTRIES) $999.8 $1,465.6 47%
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