I will poke my nose ever so slightly into the realm of political commentary/analysis although I don’t have much of a track record.

I am curious about this left-right dialogue going on right now in the federal Liberal leadership race. A few Libs that I have talked to and a number of bloggers suggest that Iggy Pop is far to ‘right wing’ for the Libs and that they need a left of centre candidate to be successful.

Upon reflection, I have concluded if electibility is the issue – I don’t think that is a correct position. Canada, if the polls and surveys are correct, is in fact ‘left-of-centre’ in some traditional sense of that term. However, the Green Party, in my opinion, is coming on strong and the NDP seems to be holding its own. Therefore, I think the hard left – let’s say 75% to 100% leftwing – will be cornered by the NDP/Greens. The Libs will have to take away the 25% to 75% centre ground in order to leave the right wing fringe to the Conservatives 0% to 25% on the Pinko scale. The problem is that Stephen Harper is turning out more like Brian Mulroney that the Liberals would have hoped. He has spent a lot of dough and will be strengthening Equalization – we are told – next week which should give more support in Quebec.

So, in a nutshell, in my flawed analysis, if the Tories are cornering the 0% – 50% on the Pinko scale due to Harpers centrist charm and the NDP/Greens have cornered the 75% to 100% on the Pinko scale, that leaves only the 50%-75% for the Libs. So, do they veer Left and try and take the far lefts or do they veer right and try and take the moderate right wingers (sometimes called the Sorry Centrists?).

Now, I realize my scale might be flawed but in plain English if Stephen Harper is in fact more appealing to the ‘centre’ than formerly thought and if the Libs elect a left leaning Rae or Kennedy to appeal to ‘left-leaning’ voters, doesn’t Harper laugh all the way to the polls?

Unless I miss something, the Libs need a leader that can carve off voters who might be inclined to vote for Harper and I am not sure a left of centre candidate would allow them to do that. In addition, I don’t think the same holds for a ‘right of centre’ candidate like Iggy or Brison. The Libs aren’t going to get the hard left of centre anyway. Cripes, I’m even starting to like the Green Party. If they ever get around to developing a serious regional development policy, I might get interested.

The Greens might turn out to be to the Left what Reform was to the Right in the 1990s.

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0 Responses to Left-Right-Centre?

  1. scott says:

    That is one whacked out analysis, David. LOL

    As for pure political numbers, Paul Wells put it best on Ignatieff not requiring endorsements to ultimate obtain the 50 per cent + 1 required to go over the top. Here’s what he said:

    So Ignatieff needs 18 points’ growth to win. That’s just a shade more than one-quarter of delegates who vote for someone else on the first ballot.

    So Ignatieff doesn’t need anyone’s endorsement; he just needs support to bleed to him at the rate of one delegate in four. And he’s been getting that all through this piece: when Hedy Fry and Carolyn Bennett went to Bob Rae, they failed to bring all their support with them. In the normal course of events, Ignatieff can expect to lure one previously unsympathetic delegate in four. Which means he can expect to win this.

    The only way to stop him is to interrupt the normal course of events.