It’s déjà vu all over again

The famous quote from Yogi Berra came to mind when I read Statistics Canada’s labour force survey this morning.

In 2003, in the middle of the election, Statistics Canada released the monthly labour force survey and it showed an 8,000 person drop in employment which was a serious drop by any measure. The Premier at the time shrugged this off by saying “I don’t believe it”.

I was quite put out about this cavilier comment as Statistics Canada is one of the most respected Statistics Agencies in the world.

But the media covered it once and then it was dropped as a non-issue.

It’s déjà vu all over again, my friends.

New Brunswick shed over 5,000 jobs last month. In percentage of the employed workforce, that’s a 1.5% drop in one month – the worst, by far, in all of Canada.

Total Employment % Change
July to August 2006
NL +1.5%
PEI +0.7%
NS -0.1%
NB -1.5%
QC -0.2%
ONT -0.2%
MB +0.4%
SK -0.1%
AB +0.4%
BC -0.1%

You know I don’t like month to month comparisons (even seasonally adjusted ones) but that’s what the Lord government likes to use, so here we go:

The second worst rate of employment growth in the country. Almost half the growth rate of PEI. In addition, using the Stat Can survey, there are about 24,000 more people working today (August 2006) than in August 1999. We also know that about 10k government jobs have been created and about 9k in call centre jobs. So, that leaves about 5k in private sector, non-call centre, job creation over six years. The record levels of inflation-adjusted government spending in New Brunswick alone should have created more jobs than that.

Prediction: Lord’s response “I don’t believe, again”.

Al Hogan? He won’t cover it at all, again or he will just carve off the Moncton numbers, again.

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0 Responses to It’s déjà vu all over again

  1. MonctonLandlord says:

    Check-out Samuel Lebreton’s Labor Market excerpt (released today):

    —–
    Employment Insurance Regions

    The unemployment rate for Restigouche-Albert* was 14.2%, which means a person has to work between 420 and 454 hours to get 33 weeks of benefits. The rate stood at 10.6% for Madawaska-Charlotte*, which translates into between 525 and 559 hours of work for 26 weeks of benefits. The rate in Fredericton-Moncton-Saint John was 6.2%, which translates into between 665 and 699 hours of work for 15 weeks of benefits. These conditions are in effect between September 10 and October 7, 2006.
    ———

    So if city centers in NB are booming at 6.2% unemployment, and Acadian Peninsula accuses Moncton of stealing youth, imagine an area like Alberta: “Although Alberta accounts for only one-tenth of the country’s workforce, the province has generated close to 40 per cent of all new jobs in the country this year, Statistics Canada noted in its report. ” – CBC

    There are places in NB with 14.2% unemployment? in 2006? … less than 2% of NBers consider econ dev an election issue (according to one of the first polls…). We need leadership, now!

  2. David Campbell says:

    Good intel, Monctonlandlord. It will be interesting to hear Lebreton’s commentary in the newspaper tomorrow. He’s usually an upbeat guy.