Provincial election looming

I recently speculated that the Premier’s – almost bizarre – hard line against Tanker Malley was an indication that he and his advisors see an advantage to going to the polls this year – maybe even this spring. This view was shared by others including political commentator Don Desserud.

Now, the latest CRA poll shows the provincial Tories gaining steam – most likely from the recent Liberal hammering at the national level – according to Don Mills of CRA. The Tories are closing in on the margin of error only 7% behind the provincial Libs in public opinion.

Now, once again consider my premise. 2007 will not be a kind year for the governing party. Statistics Canada will publish its 2006 Census data which will show another population decline – the second straight Census to show such a decline. Pundits will postulate. Activists will resonate. Oppositionists will cast an apocalyptic furor. How could this happen? Fingers will point menacingly at the Premier – describing him as the only elected Premier in the province’s history to leave with less population than when he arrived. Not to mention the occasional cranky blog from this corner of cyberspace.

Add to that the potential closure of the Miramichi Mill and no more major highway construction (which will drop the employment numbers) – and 2007 is shaping up to be problematic.

But if you are the provincial PCs and you eke out a small majority win in 2006, who cares about 2007? You’ll ride it out and hope for the best.

Now they have momentum in the polls. There is nothing in the short, short term that should come out of the woodwork to bite them.

My guess? They will develop a budget in April full of goodies and then dare the opposition to bring them down. They will include a carrot for the Miramichi – but not too big – daring Tanker to bring them down.

Then they will run on their now infamous themes: record growth, prosperity for all, etc. etc. etc. and hope that Moncton and Fredericton ridings pull them through again.

Politics is a miserable sport, n’est pas?

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0 Responses to Provincial election looming

  1. Anonymous says:

    It’s a misery, especially for voters. I think the CRA are drunk personally. You’d have to ignore virtually everything that is going on in the province. However, who knows? Most poeple aren’t like us and have zero interest in politics, not to mention Irving’s constant stream of propaganda. However, even in urban areas its hard to miss. The massive amount (relatively) of homelessness and begging going on in fredericton is indicative that ‘prosperity’ doesn’t include people, I don’t know what it looks like in Moncton but Saint John is the same. Of course up north they know it full well, and always have.

    I wouldn’t suspect that the reasons given are the case though, tories only picked up a couple more federal seats and you’d have to be pretty out of it to think that provincial liberals or Graham had anything to do with Gomery or other federal scandals.

    I suspect the fact that Irving never covers anything that Graham does as being right up there. If you’re going to vote to get rid of somebody, you at least have to know who the other guy is and what their policies are. With the cbc back at least there’s a chance something but the Irving line will be heard.

    Heck, just getting paid that much money is probably enough to get him turfed out, and I suspect he knows it. Better to at least let that die down.

    However, if you’re read this far then PLEASE for the love of god write to your MLA. We worked our asses off to get basic human rights for tenants. It’s now passed two readings and only needs one more. If they call an election before then, then it’s finished.

    Not only will NB have to sell its advantages, it will also contintue to have to explain why its still a third world location which refuses to adopt basic human rights legislation. Tell your MLA that if they vote to bring down the house before it passes, you’ll remember it on election day. That’s the ONLY democratic right New Brunswickers have, so please use it.

  2. David Campbell says:

    Please send along any information/links you have about that tenant’s rights thing. I, like many I suppose, am oblivious to this issue but I would like to know.

  3. Anonymous says:

    http://www.vivenewbrunswick.com/RTA/home.htm

    This is the closest thing to a full account as can be found online. It’s the link that is provided by the Fredericton Anti-Poverty association. However, other anti poverty associations around the province might have something on it as well, and charles leblanc’s blog frequently refers to the issue. It was only mentioned twice in the Irving newspapers during the by-election, yet it was the first bill presented by Ed Doherty on his first day at the legislature. And it was mentioned in the throne speech. The full bill can of course be seen at the government of new brunswick legislature website.

  4. scott says:

    There is no doubt that 70% of what you mention will definitely go down in the next election.

    But you failed to mention the most important ingredient in any political campaign…

    …a fantastic campaign chair as well as a seasoned campaign manager.

    In 1999, Lord’s campaign was run by this guy. He is said to have been the x-factor for Lord’s tories and the primary reason he won a majority that year.

    But due to a massive amount of tory leadership races (including Belinda’s high paying affair), Lord was not able to attrack John Laschinger or any other good professionals to help in his 2003 campaign. My apologies to those local New Brunswickers who ran his campaign that year.

    Also, throw in the John Bryden factor with Shawn Graham and you definitely have a mismatch in ’03. I don’t have to tell you how important a crew of strategists are to whether or not a campaign is successful.

    I mean, we all remember Dithers and his crew of clowns, Reid Hurle et al., in both the ’04 and the ’06 federal elections.

    The strategist in which Lord hires this time will be key to the entire campaign, especially since this election will be a harder fought battle then the car insurance battle of ’03.

  5. David Campbell says:

    Absolutely correct although I read over the weekend that a couple of Lord’s top advisors have left for Ottawa and I am hearing that several more are snooping around. It looks like Premier Lord will need a new team around him this time.

  6. scott says:

    David,

    Was that an article in the TT, Telelgraph or was it on CBC New Brunswick news site?

    I missed it and I would like to read it.

  7. David Campbell says:

    Telegraph Journal but you need a username/password. David

  8. Anonymous says:

    Don’t give irving any more money, they have quite enough. Just tell me where to find it David and I’ll post it here.

  9. scott says:

    Thanks David. I’ll check it out. For the record, is NB the only province who doesn’t offer at least one free online Newspaper? Just curious?

  10. David Campbell says:

    Not among the dailies – L’acadie Nouvelle, Miramichi Leader, T&T, TJ, DG, etc. are all pay for use.

  11. Anonymous says:

    And are all the same owner.