For those obsessed with polls, it seems the trend in this federal election is mirroring last year – with the exception that it started a little late.
The new Leger poll puts the Tories up by 9%. The Strategic Counsel shows a big 4% drop to a 9% lead. SES, the daily tracking poll, has the Tories ahead by only 6% (with a +/- 5% range).
If the Tories drop 3%-4% per day between now and Monday, presto! Liberal minority again.
Well, remember that I have a horrible track record when it comes to picking elections so I will pass. But a colleague of mine believes that the UBC Election Stock Market is among the most accurate predictors and they are still calling for a Tory minority with 127 seats to 96 for the Libs.