Bank of Montreal forecasts at odds with Premier Lord

Premier Lord said in October that New Brunswick in 2005 would see the best job growth in 30 years. He talks ad nauseum about all the prosperity he has bestowed on New Brunswick. His sentiments are echoed by Al Hogan at the Times and Transcript.

However, this is not the view of the economics group at the Bank of Montreal. They just updated their provincial forecast tables yesterday. Here’s some of their predictions:

*Job growth in 2005 will be the worst in Canada along with Newfoundland – actually it will be a decline in jobs. Those ‘pesky’ job figures again :-)

*Real GDP growth has and will (forecasted) underperform the Canadian average from 2003 to 2010. So much for the Prosperity Plan goal of reducing the GDP per capita gap (unless we continue to lose significant population).

*The unemployment rate will remain third highest in Canada until 2010.

*Retail sales growth will underperform the national average until 2010.

Prosperity abounds! Break out the champagne!

http://www.bmo.com/economic/regular/regtable.html

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0 Responses to Bank of Montreal forecasts at odds with Premier Lord

  1. David Campbell says:

    Update: I may be a littled jaded. The headline in the Telegraph-Journal today reads:

    Good N.B. economic forecast powered by energy projects
    BMO predicts New Brunswick growth to lead Maritimes

    In today’s environment, it seems, the economy performing below the national average for eight straight years (some forecasted) is not headline worthy but eeking out slightly better growth than PEI and NS apparently is.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Yes, and if you consider that construction of LNG and nuclear plants will be over in five years, that ‘eking out’ won’t be worth much.